Supervised machine learning algorithms have seen spectacular advances and surpassed human level performance in a wide range of specific applications. However, using complex ensemble or deep learning algorithms typically results in black box models, where the path leading to individual predictions cannot be followed in detail. In order to address this issue, we propose the novel "Cyclic Boosting" machine learning algorithm, which allows to efficiently perform accurate regression and classification tasks while at the same time allowing a detailed understanding of how each individual prediction was made.
Statistical Inference for Explainable Boosting Machines
School of Economics, Fudan University（复旦大学经济学院）；Department of Statistics and Data Science, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院统计与数据科学系）
The geographically weighted regression (GWR) is an essential tool for estimating the spatial variation of relationships between dependent and independent variables in geographical contexts. However, GWR suffers from the problem that classical linear regressions, which compose the GWR model, are more prone to be underfitting, especially for significant volume and complex nonlinear data, causing inferior comparative performance. Nevertheless, some advanced models, such as the decision tree and the support vector machine, can learn features from complex data more effectively while they cannot pro…
Microsoft（微软）；University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
We show that adding differential privacy to Explainable Boosting Machines (EBMs), a recent method for training interpretable ML models, yields state-of-the-art accuracy while protecting privacy. Our experiments on multiple classification and regression datasets show that DP-EBM models suffer surprisingly little accuracy loss even with strong differential privacy guarantees. In addition to high accuracy, two other benefits of applying DP to EBMs are: a) trained models provide exact global and local interpretability, which is often important in settings where differential privacy is needed; and …
Istanbul Technical University（伊斯坦布尔理工大学）；University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）
Machine learning is becoming increasingly prevalent for tackling challenges in earthquake engineering and providing fairly reliable and accurate predictions. However, it is mostly unclear how decisions are made because machine learning models are generally highly sophisticated, resulting in opaque black-box models. Machine learning models that are naturally interpretable and provide their own decision explanation, rather than using an explanatory, are more accurate in determining what the model actually computes. With this motivation, this study aims to develop a fully explainable machine lear…
Maastricht University（马斯特里赫特大学）；University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）
Previous research on EMA data of mental disorders was mainly focused on multivariate regression-based approaches modeling each individual separately. This paper goes a step further towards exploring the use of non-linear interpretable machine learning (ML) models in classification problems. ML models can enhance the ability to accurately predict the occurrence of different behaviors by recognizing complicated patterns between variables in data. To evaluate this, the performance of various ensembles of trees are compared to linear models using imbalanced synthetic and real-world datasets. After…
Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning: Illustrating the use of Explainable Boosting Machines to Identify Overshooting Tops in Satellite Imagery
The Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University（Courant数学科学研究所，纽约大学）；Department of Statistics, Colorado State University（统计学系，科罗拉多州立大学）；Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University（大气研究合作研究所，科罗拉多州立大学）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Colorado State University（电气与计算机工程系，科罗拉多州立大学）；Department of Mathematics, Colorado State University（数学系，科罗拉多州立大学）；School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University（地球与环境科学学院，首尔国立大学）
Unveiling Hidden Factors: Explainable AI for Feature Boosting in Speech Emotion Recognition
University of Québec (TÉLUQ)（魁北克大学（TÉLUQ））；Concordia University（康考迪亚大学）；Concordia Institute for Information Systems Engineering（康考迪亚信息系统工程学院）；University of Québec at Montréal（蒙特利尔魁北克大学）；Centre for Research and Intervention on Suicide, Ethical Issues and End-of-Life Practices（自杀、伦理问题与临终实践研究与干预中心）
University of Ottawa（渥太华大学）；Dalhousie University（达尔豪斯大学）
Machine Learning applications have brought new insights into a secondary analysis of medical data. Machine Learning helps to develop new drugs, define populations susceptible to certain illnesses, identify predictors of many common diseases. At the same time, Machine Learning results depend on convolution of many factors, including feature selection, class (im)balance, algorithm preference, and performance metrics. In this paper, we present explainable multi-class classification of a large medical data set. We in details discuss knowledge-based feature engineering, data set balancing, best mod…
Using synthetic data for training neural networks that achieve good performance on real-world data is an important task as it can reduce the need for costly data annotation. Yet, synthetic and real world data have a domain gap. Reducing this gap, also known as domain adaptation, has been widely studied in recent years. Closing the domain gap between the source (synthetic) and target (real) data by directly performing the adaptation between the two is challenging. In this work, we propose a novel two-stage framework for improving domain adaptation techniques on image data. In the first stage, w…
CoreML Group Apple Inc.（苹果公司CoreML团队）；Department of Mathematics Florida State University（佛罗里达州立大学数学系）；Department of Statistics Florida State University（佛罗里达州立大学统计系）
Tree ensembles are flexible predictive models that can capture relevant variables and to some extent their interactions in a compact and interpretable manner. Most algorithms for obtaining tree ensembles are based on versions of boosting or Random Forest. Previous work showed that boosting algorithms exhibit a cyclic behavior of selecting the same tree again and again due to the way the loss is optimized. At the same time, Random Forest is not based on loss optimization and obtains a more complex and less interpretable model. In this paper we present a novel method for obtaining compact tree e…
Application of Machine Learning algorithms to the medical domain is an emerging trend that helps to advance medical knowledge. At the same time, there is a significant a lack of explainable studies that promote informed, transparent, and interpretable use of Machine Learning algorithms. In this paper, we present explainable multi-class classification of the Covid-19 mental health data. In Machine Learning study, we aim to find the potential factors to influence a personal mental health during the Covid-19 pandemic. We found that Random Forest (RF) and Gradient Boosting (GB) have scored the hig…
Effective Predictive Modeling for Emergency Department Visits and Evaluating Exogenous Variables Impact: Using Explainable Meta-learning Gradient Boosting
Canberra Health Services, Canberra Hospital（堪培拉卫生服务局，堪培拉医院）；University of Technology Sydney（悉尼科技大学）；University of New South Wales（新南威尔士大学）；The Australian National University（澳大利亚国立大学）；Obuda University（欧布达大学）
This paper applies eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods to investigate the socioeconomic disparities in COVID patient mortality. An Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) prediction model is built based on a de-identified Austin area hospital dataset to predict the mortality of COVID-19 patients. We apply two XAI methods, Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) and Locally Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanations (LIME), to compare the global and local interpretation of feature importance. This paper demonstrates the advantages of using XAI which shows the feature importance and decisi…
InterpretML is an open-source Python package which exposes machine learning interpretability algorithms to practitioners and researchers. InterpretML exposes two types of interpretability - glassbox models, which are machine learning models designed for interpretability (ex: linear models, rule lists, generalized additive models), and blackbox explainability techniques for explaining existing systems (ex: Partial Dependence, LIME). The package enables practitioners to easily compare interpretability algorithms by exposing multiple methods under a unified API, and by having a built-in, extensib…
Explainable artificial intelligence model for identifying Market Value in Professional Soccer Players
Zhili College（致理书院）；Tsinghua University（清华大学）；Research Centre for Athletic Performance and Data Science & Division of Sports Science and Physical Education（运动表现与数据科学研究中心&体育科学与体育教育系）
National Technical University of Athens（雅典国立技术大学）；University of Athens（雅典大学）
Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) is an important cause of disability and death among individuals with Diabetes Mellitus (DM). International clinical guidelines for the management of Type 2 DM (T2DM) are founded on primary and secondary prevention and favor the evaluation of CVD related risk factors towards appropriate treatment initiation. CVD risk prediction models can provide valuable tools for optimizing the frequency of medical visits and performing timely preventive and therapeutic interventions against CVD events. The integration of explainability modalities in these models can enhance human…
It becomes a significant challenge to predict customer behavior and retain an existing customer with the rapid growth of digitization which opens up more opportunities for customers to choose from subscription-based products and services model. Since the cost of acquiring a new customer is five-times higher than retaining an existing customer, henceforth, there is a need to address the customer churn problem which is a major threat across the Industries. Considering direct impact on revenues, companies identify the factors that increases the customer churn rate. Here, key objective of the pape…
Explainable Retinal Imaging for Prediction of Multi-Organ Dysfunction in Type 2 Diabetes
Faculty of Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence（计算机科学与人工智能学院）；Frontier Science Computing Center（前沿科学计算中心）；Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院）；Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学）；Zhuhai People's Hospital（珠海人民医院）；Beijing Institute of Technology（北京理工大学）；Jinan University（暨南大学）；Lampang Inter-Tech College
ExBigBang: A Dynamic Approach for Explainable Persona Classification through Contextualized Hybrid Transformer Analysis
School of Computing, Macquarie University（麦考瑞大学计算机学院）；Department of Computer Engineering and Information Technology, Shiraz University of Technology（谢里兹技术大学计算机工程与信息科技系）；John Walsh Centre for Rehabilitation Research, Kolling Institute, University of Sydney（悉尼大学约翰·沃什康复研究中心）；College of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Dubai（迪拜大学工程与信息科技学院）
University of Missouri-Columbia（密苏里大学哥伦比亚分校）；Northeastern University（东北大学）
Cybersickness can be characterized by nausea, vertigo, headache, eye strain, and other discomforts when using virtual reality (VR) systems. The previously reported machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) algorithms for detecting (classification) and predicting (regression) VR cybersickness use black-box models; thus, they lack explainability. Moreover, VR sensors generate a massive amount of data, resulting in complex and large models. Therefore, having inherent explainability in cybersickness detection models can significantly improve the model's trustworthiness and provide insight into …
Department of Artificial Intelligence, University of Malta（马耳他大学人工智能系）
With the ever-growing achievements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the recent boosted enthusiasm in Financial Technology (FinTech), applications such as credit scoring have gained substantial academic interest. Credit scoring helps financial experts make better decisions regarding whether or not to accept a loan application, such that loans with a high probability of default are not accepted. Apart from the noisy and highly imbalanced data challenges faced by such credit scoring models, recent regulations such as the `right to explanation' introduced by the General Data Protection Regulati…
Faculty of Economics and Business, KU Leuven（比利时鲁汶大学经济与管理学院）；LRisk, Leuven Research Center on Insurance and Financial Risk Analysis, KU Leuven（比利时鲁汶大学保险与金融风险分析研究中心（LRisk））；École d’actuariat, Université Laval（加拿大拉瓦尔大学精算学院）；Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Amsterdam（荷兰阿姆斯特丹大学经济与管理学院）；Faculty of Economics and Business, KU Leuven, Belgium（比利时鲁汶大学经济与管理学院）；LRisk, Leuven Research Center on Insurance and Financial Risk Analysis, KU Leuven, Belgium（比利时鲁汶大学保险与金融风险分析研究中心（LRisk））
Pricing actuaries typically operate within the framework of generalized linear models (GLMs). With the upswing of data analytics, our study puts focus on machine learning methods to develop full tariff plans built from both the frequency and severity of claims. We adapt the loss functions used in the algorithms such that the specific characteristics of insurance data are carefully incorporated: highly unbalanced count data with excess zeros and varying exposure on the frequency side combined with scarce, but potentially long-tailed data on the severity side. A key requirement is the need for t…
Enhancing ML Models Interpretability for Credit Scoring
Dept. of Computer Science, Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学计算机科学系）；Dept. of Applied Mathematics, Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学应用数学系）；FF Quant Advisory B.V.（FF量化咨询公司）
Explainable Artificial Intelligence Model for Evaluating Shear Strength Parameters of Municipal Solid Waste Across Diverse Compositional Profiles
The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi（泰国国王科技大学吞武里校区能源与环境联合研究生院）；AI Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi（泰国国王科技大学吞武里校区工程学院土木工程系人工智能研究组）；Center of Excellence on Energy Technology and Environment (CEE), PERDO, Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation (MHESI)（高等教育、科学、研究与创新部PERDO能源技术与环境卓越中心）；Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kasetsart University（农业大学工程学院环境工程系）
An Explainable Machine Learning Approach to Traffic Accident Fatality Prediction
Institute of Information Technology（信息技术学院）；University of Dhaka（达卡大学）；Accident Research Institute（事故研究所）；Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology（孟加拉工程技术大学）
Identification of Twitter Bots Based on an Explainable Machine Learning Framework: The US 2020 Elections Case Study
Institute of Computer Science, Foundation for Research and Technology（希腊研究与技术基金会计算机科学研究所）；Technical University of Crete（克里特技术大学）；University of Crete（克里特大学）
