arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2002.03309cs.LGstat.ML
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一种生理驱动的心脏骤停预后预测计算模型

A Physiology-Driven Computational Model for Post-Cardiac Arrest Outcome Prediction

Johns Hopkins University(约翰斯·霍普金斯大学);Charité-Universitätsmedizin(柏林夏里特医学院)
Han B. Kim, Hieu Nguyen, Qingchu Jin, Sharmila Tamby, Tatiana Gelaf Romer, Eric Sung, Ran Liu, Joseph Greenstein, Jose I. Suarez, Christian Storm, Raimond Winsl… 展开作者

Han B. Kim, Hieu Nguyen, Qingchu Jin, Sharmila Tamby, Tatiana Gelaf Romer, Eric Sung, Ran Liu, Joseph Greenstein, Jose I. Suarez, Christian Storm, Raimond Winslow, Robert D. Stevens

摘要:

心脏骤停(CA)患者复苏后面临神经功能障碍和死亡的高风险,但缺乏准确可靠的诊断方法。本研究的目的是建立计算模型,通过利用进入重症监护室(ICU)后早期可用的高维患者数据来预测CA后的结果。我们假设模型性能可以通过整合生理时间序列(PTS)数据和训练机器学习(ML)分类器来增强。我们比较了三种模型,分别集成了从电子健康记录(EHR)中提取的特征、从ICU入院后前24小时收集的PTS(PTS 24)中提取的特征以及集成PTS 24和EHR的模型。关注的结局是ICU出院时的生存率和神经学结局。对于生存率(AUC分别为0.85、0.80和0.68)和神经学结局(AUC分别为0.87、0.83和0.78)的预测,联合EHR-PTS 24模型比单独使用EHR或PTS 24的模型具有更高的区分度(受试者工作特征曲线下面积[AUC])。最佳ML分类器在生存期(AUC 0.85 vs 0.70)和神经学结局预测(AUC 0.87 vs 0.75)方面的区分度高于参考逻辑回归模型(APACHE III)。特征分析揭示了以前未知的因素与CA后恢复。结果证明了ML模型用于CA后预测建模的有效性,并表明在复苏后非常早期记录的PTS编码短期结果概率。

英文摘要:

Patients resuscitated from cardiac arrest (CA) face a high risk of neurological disability and death, however pragmatic methods are lacking for accurate and reliable prognostication. The aim of this study was to build computational models to predict post-CA outcome by leveraging high-dimensional patient data available early after admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). We hypothesized that model performance could be enhanced by integrating physiological time series (PTS) data and by training machine learning (ML) classifiers. We compared three models integrating features extracted from the electronic health records (EHR) alone, features derived from PTS collected in the first 24hrs after ICU admission (PTS24), and models integrating PTS24 and EHR. Outcomes of interest were survival and neurological outcome at ICU discharge. Combined EHR-PTS24 models had higher discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) than models which used either EHR or PTS24 alone, for the prediction of survival (AUC 0.85, 0.80 and 0.68 respectively) and neurological outcome (0.87, 0.83 and 0.78). The best ML classifier achieved higher discrimination than the reference logistic regression model (APACHE III) for survival (AUC 0.85 vs 0.70) and neurological outcome prediction (AUC 0.87 vs 0.75). Feature analysis revealed previously unknown factors to be associated with post-CA recovery. Results attest to the effectiveness of ML models for post-CA predictive modeling and suggest that PTS recorded in very early phase after resuscitation encode short-term outcome probabilities.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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