评估气候变化对鸟类biodiversity的生物物理和社会经济影响
Assessing biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change on avian biodiversity
摘要：
气候变化直接威胁到生物多样性，因为它影响到驱动物种地理分布的生物物理变量，并间接威胁到由全球消费、生产和气候驱动的影响土地使用模式的社会经济变化。到目前为止，还没有详细的分析来评估这些直接和间接的气候变化对生物多样性的影响在大尺度上的相对重要性或相互作用。在这里，我们应用一个新的综合建模框架来量化生物物理和社会经济介导的影响在越南和澳大利亚的鸟类物种的相对影响。我们发现，社会经济介导的影响，在很大程度上超过了生物物理的影响，但全球生产的转移可能会导致对全球生境的不利影响。通过将经济未来和冲击转化为对生物多样性变化的空间明确预测，我们现在有能力以一致的方式分析从国家以下到全球任何规模的政策、法规、贸易条件或消费趋势的任何变化对自然和人民的影响。
英文摘要：
Climate change threatens biodiversity directly by influencing biophysical variables that drive species' geographic distributions and indirectly through socio-economic changes that influence land use patterns, driven by global consumption, production and climate. To date, no detailed analyses have been produced that assess the relative importance of, or interaction between, these direct and indirect climate change impacts on biodiversity at large scales. Here, we apply a new integrated modelling framework to quantify the relative influence of biophysical and socio-economically mediated impacts on avian species in Vietnam and Australia. We find that socio-economically mediated impacts on suitable ranges are largely outweighed by biophysical impacts, but global shifts of production are likely to result in adverse impacts on habitats worldwide. By translating economic futures and shocks into spatially explicit predictions of biodiversity change, we now have the power to analyse in a consistent way outcomes for nature and people of any change to policy, regulation, trading conditions or consumption trend at any scale from sub-national to global.
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