Forecasting Industrial Aging Processes with Machine Learning Methods
Technische Universität Berlin（柏林工业大学）；BASF SE（巴斯夫欧洲公司）；Hochschule Mannheim（曼海姆应用技术大学）；Korea University（高丽大学）；Max-Planck-Institut für Informatik（马克斯·普朗克信息学研究所）
Mihail Bogojeski, Simeon Sauer, Franziska Horn, Klaus-Robert Müller
备注：
30 pages (41 including appendix), 13 figures, accepted in Computers and Chemical Engineering
Accurately predicting industrial aging processes makes it possible to schedule maintenance events further in advance, ensuring a cost-efficient and reliable operation of the plant. So far, these degradation processes were usually described by mechanistic or simple empirical prediction models. In this paper, we evaluate a wider range of data-driven models, comparing some traditional stateless models (linear and kernel ridge regression, feed-forward neural networks) to more complex recurrent neural networks (echo state networks and LSTMs). We first examine how much historical data is needed to train each of the models on a synthetic dataset with known dynamics. Next, the models are tested on real-world data from a large scale chemical plant. Our results show that recurrent models produce near perfect predictions when trained on larger datasets, and maintain a good performance even when trained on smaller datasets with domain shifts, while the simpler models only performed comparably on the smaller datasets.
LAD-BNet: Lag-Aware Dual-Branch Networks for Real-Time Energy Forecasting on Edge Devices
University of La Réunion（留尼旺大学）；PIMENT Laboratory（PIMENT实验室）；Physics and Mathematical Engineering for Energy, Environment and Building（能源、环境与建筑的物理与数学工程）
Time series modeling has entered an era of unprecedented growth in the size and complexity of data which require new modeling approaches. While many new general purpose machine learning approaches have emerged, they remain poorly understand and irreconcilable with more traditional statistical modeling approaches. We present a general class of exponential smoothed recurrent neural networks (RNNs) which are well suited to modeling non-stationary dynamical systems arising in industrial applications. In particular, we analyze their capacity to characterize the non-linear partial autocorrelation st…
Reliable and accurate wind speed prediction has significant impact in many industrial sectors such as economic, business and management among others. This paper presents a new model for wind speed prediction based on Graph Attention Networks (GAT). In particular, the proposed model extends GAT architecture by equipping it with a learnable adjacency matrix as well as incorporating a new attention mechanism with the aim of obtaining attention scores per weather variable. The output of the GAT based model is combined with the LSTM layer in order to exploit both the spatial and temporal characteri…
CSPO: Cross-Market Synergistic Stock Price Movement Forecasting with Pseudo-volatility Optimization
The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳））；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；International Digital Economy Academy (IDEA)（国际数字经济学院（IDEA））；The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)（香港科技大学（广州））；Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）；McGill University（麦吉尔大学）
DSPR: Dual-Stream Physics-Residual Networks for Trustworthy Industrial Time Series Forecasting
School of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China（电子科技大学计算机科学与工程学院）；Research Center, East Hope Group Co., Ltd（东希望集团有限公司研究院）
Sapienza University of Rome（罗马第一大学）；University of Verona（维罗纳大学）
Pushing back the frontiers of collaborative robots in industrial environments, we propose a new Separable-Sparse Graph Convolutional Network (SeS-GCN) for pose forecasting. For the first time, SeS-GCN bottlenecks the interaction of the spatial, temporal and channel-wise dimensions in GCNs, and it learns sparse adjacency matrices by a teacher-student framework. Compared to the state-of-the-art, it only uses 1.72% of the parameters and it is ~4 times faster, while still performing comparably in forecasting accuracy on Human3.6M at 1 second in the future, which enables cobots to be aware of human…
Università Sapienza（罗马大学）；Centro Ricerche Enrico Fermi（恩里科·费米研究中心）；Joint Research Centre（联合研究中心）；Istituto dei Sistemi Complessi - CNR（意大利国家研究委员会复杂系统研究所）
Economic complexity methods, and in particular relatedness measures, lack a systematic evaluation and comparison framework. We argue that out-of-sample forecast exercises should play this role, and we compare various machine learning models to set the prediction benchmark. We find that the key object to forecast is the activation of new products, and that tree-based algorithms clearly overperform both the quite strong auto-correlation benchmark and the other supervised algorithms. Interestingly, we find that the best results are obtained in a cross-validation setting, when data about the predi…
Amazon Web Services AI Labs（亚马逊云科技人工智能实验室）；Boğaziçi University（博阿齐奇大学）
Intermittency is a common and challenging problem in demand forecasting. We introduce a new, unified framework for building intermittent demand forecasting models, which incorporates and allows to generalize existing methods in several directions. Our framework is based on extensions of well-established model-based methods to discrete-time renewal processes, which can parsimoniously account for patterns such as aging, clustering and quasi-periodicity in demand arrivals. The connection to discrete-time renewal processes allows not only for a principled extension of Croston-type models, but also…
Cyber-physical systems often consist of entities that interact with each other over time. Meanwhile, as part of the continued digitization of industrial processes, various sensor technologies are deployed that enable us to record time-varying attributes (a.k.a., time series) of such entities, thus producing correlated time series. To enable accurate forecasting on such correlated time series, this paper proposes two models that combine convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs). The first model employs a CNN on each individual time series, combines the convoluted…
Gas demand is made of three components: Residential, Industrial, and Thermoelectric Gas Demand. Herein, the one-day-ahead prediction of each component is studied, using Italian data as a case study. Statistical properties and relationships with temperature are discussed, as a preliminary step for an effective feature selection. Nine "base forecasters" are implemented and compared: Ridge Regression, Gaussian Processes, Nearest Neighbours, Artificial Neural Networks, Torus Model, LASSO, Elastic Net, Random Forest, and Support Vector Regression (SVR). Based on them, four ensemble predictors are c…
We adopted an approach based on an LSTM neural network to monitor and detect faults in industrial multivariate time series data. To validate the approach we created a Modelica model of part of a real gasoil plant. By introducing hacks into the logic of the Modelica model, we were able to generate both the roots and causes of fault behavior in the plant. Having a self-consistent data set with labeled faults, we used an LSTM architecture with a forecasting error threshold to obtain precision and recall quality metrics. The dependency of the quality metric on the threshold level is considered. An…
A Market-Rule-Informed Neural Network for Efficient Imbalance Electricity Price Forecasting
Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）；Austrian Institute of Technology（奥地利技术研究院）；London Business School（伦敦商学院）；University of Technology Sydney（悉尼大学）；The Chinese University of Hongkong (Shenzhen)（香港中文大学（深圳））
PhysAttNet: Enhancing Predictive Performance in Industrial and Astrophysical Time Series via Physics-Informed Attention
Faculty of Physics and Astronomy, Ruhr University Bochum（鲁尔大学波鸿分校物理与天文学学院）；Virtual Machining Group, TU Dortmund（多特蒙德工业大学虚拟加工组）；Faculty of Physics（物理学院）
We explore the application of kernel-based multi-task learning techniques to forecast the demand of electricity in multiple nodes of a distribution network. We show that recently developed output kernel learning techniques are particularly well suited to solve this problem, as they allow to flexibly model the complex seasonal effects that characterize electricity demand data, while learning and exploiting correlations between multiple demand profiles. We also demonstrate that kernels with a multiplicative structure yield superior predictive performance with respect to the widely adopted (gener…
University of Verona（维罗纳大学）；Humatics Srl（Humatics有限公司）
The fashion industry is one of the most active and competitive markets in the world, manufacturing millions of products and reaching large audiences every year. A plethora of business processes are involved in this large-scale industry, but due to the generally short life-cycle of clothing items, supply-chain management and retailing strategies are crucial for good market performance. Correctly understanding the wants and needs of clients, managing logistic issues and marketing the correct products are high-level problems with a lot of uncertainty associated to them given the number of influen…
Industrial machine learning systems face data challenges that are often under-explored in the academic literature. Common data challenges are data distribution shifts, missing values and anomalies. In this paper, we discuss data challenges and solutions in the context of a Neural Forecasting application on labor planning.We discuss how to make this forecasting system resilient to these data challenges. We address changes in data distribution with a periodic retraining scheme and discuss the critical importance of model stability in this setting. Furthermore, we show how our deep learning model…
Multi-Modal Fusion of In-Situ Video Data and Process Parameters for Online Forecasting of Cookie Drying Readiness
Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校机械科学与工程系）；Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Michigan（密歇根大学机械工程系）
Short-Horizon Predictive Maintenance of Industrial Pumps Using Time-Series Features and Machine Learning
Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Institut für Physik, AG Moderne Optik（洪堡-柏林大学，物理研究所，现代光学小组）；University of Doha for Science and Technology, College of Engineering and Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering Technology（多哈科学技术大学，工程与技术学院，机械工程技术系）
Information Technologies Institute, Centre of Research and Technology Hellas（希腊研究与技术中心信息技术研究所）
Multivariate time series forecasting is of great importance to many scientific disciplines and industrial sectors. The evolution of a multivariate time series depends on the dynamics of its variables and the connectivity network of causal interrelationships among them. Most of the existing time series models do not account for the causal effects among the system's variables and even if they do they rely just on determining the between-variables causality network. Knowing the structure of such a complex network and even more specifically knowing the exact lagged variables that contribute to the…
A Predictive Approach To Enhance Time-Series Forecasting
Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering（电气与计算机工程系）；University of California Santa Cruz（加州大学圣克鲁兹分校）；Friedrich Miescher Institute for Biomedical Research（弗里德里希·迈斯切尔生物医学研究中心）；Institut de Neurosciences de la Timone Aix Marseille Univ CNRS（里沃利神经科学研究所）；School of Biomedical Engineering The University of Sydney（悉尼大学生物医学工程学院）
Universal Battery Degradation Forecasting Driven by Foundation Model Across Diverse Chemistries and Conditions
Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai, China.（工业工程与管理系，上海交通大学，上海，中国）；Department of Systems Engineering, The City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.（系统工程系，香港城市大学，香港）
This paper presents a data-driven approach to mitigate the effects of air pollution from industrial plants on nearby cities by linking operational decisions with weather conditions. Our method combines predictive and prescriptive machine learning models to forecast short-term wind speed and direction and recommend operational decisions to reduce or pause the industrial plant's production. We exhibit several trade-offs between reducing environmental impact and maintaining production activities. The predictive component of our framework employs various machine learning models, such as gradient-b…
Data-driven solar forecasting enables near-optimal economic decisions
NVIDIA Corporation（NVIDIA公司）；State Key Laboratory of Autonomous Intelligent Unmanned Systems（自主智能无人机系统国家重点实验室）；Tongji University（同济大学）；Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学）；University of Shanghai for Science and Technology（上海科技大学）；Shanghai Innovation Institution（上海创新机构）；Antai College of Economics and Management（管理学院）
QGAPHEnsemble : Combining Hybrid QLSTM Network Ensemble via Adaptive Weighting for Short Term Weather Forecasting
Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；Indian Institute of Engineering Science and Technology, Shibpur（印度工程科学技术学院（希布普尔））；IIT Roorkee（鲁基印度理工学院）；National Institute of Technology, Rourkela（罗尔克拉国家理工学院）；National Institute of Technology Karnataka（卡纳塔克邦国家理工学院）；Jadavpur University（贾达沃普尔大学）
New York University Abu Dhabi（纽约大学阿布扎比分校）；University of Stuttgart（斯图加特大学）
Process variations and device aging impose profound challenges for circuit designers. Without a precise understanding of the impact of variations on the delay of circuit paths, guardbands, which keep timing violations at bay, cannot be correctly estimated. This problem is exacerbated for advanced technology nodes, where transistor dimensions reach atomic levels and established margins are severely constrained. Hence, traditional worst-case analysis becomes impractical, resulting in intolerable performance overheads. Contrarily, process-variation/aging-aware static timing analysis (STA) equips …
