Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have become popular platforms for online learning. While MOOCs enable students to study at their own pace, this flexibility makes it easy for students to drop out of class. In this paper, our goal is to predict if a learner is going to drop out within the next week, given clickstream data for the current week. To this end, we present a multi-layer representation learning solution based on branch and bound (BB) algorithm, which learns from low-level clickstreams in an unsupervised manner, produces interpretable results, and avoids manual feature engineering. In experiments on Coursera data, we show that our model learns a representation that allows a simple model to perform similarly well to more complex, task-specific models, and how the BB algorithm enables interpretable results. In our analysis of the observed limitations, we discuss promising future directions.
Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have become a popular choice for e-learning thanks to their great flexibility. However, due to large numbers of learners and their diverse backgrounds, it is taxing to offer real-time support. Learners may post their feelings of confusion and struggle in the respective MOOC forums, but with the large volume of posts and high workloads for MOOC instructors, it is unlikely that the instructors can identify all learners requiring intervention. This problem has been studied as a Natural Language Processing (NLP) problem recently, and is known to be challenging, …
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
In a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC), predictive models of student behavior can support multiple aspects of learning, including instructor feedback and timely intervention. Ongoing courses, when the student outcomes are yet unknown, must rely on models trained from the historical data of previously offered courses. It is possible to transfer models, but they often have poor prediction performance. One reason is features that inadequately represent predictive attributes common to both courses. We present an automated transductive transfer learning approach that addresses this issue. It relies…
This paper addresses a key challenge in MOOC dropout prediction, namely to build meaningful representations from clickstream data. While a variety of feature extraction techniques have been explored extensively for such purposes, to our knowledge, no prior works have explored modeling of educational content (e.g. video) and their correlation with the learner's behavior (e.g. clickstream) in this context. We bridge this gap by devising a method to learn representation for videos and the correlation between videos and clicks. The results indicate that modeling videos and their correlation with c…
Durham University（杜伦大学）；Federal University of Roraima（罗赖马联邦大学）；University of Liverpool（利物浦大学）；Coventry University（考文垂大学）
While Massive Open Online Course (MOOCs) platforms provide knowledge in a new and unique way, the very high number of dropouts is a significant drawback. Several features are considered to contribute towards learner attrition or lack of interest, which may lead to disengagement or total dropout. The jury is still out on which factors are the most appropriate predictors. However, the literature agrees that early prediction is vital to allow for a timely intervention. Whilst feature-rich predictors may have the best chance for high accuracy, they may be unwieldy. This study aims to predict learn…
Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) are attracting the attention of people all over the world. Regardless the platform, numbers of registrants for online courses are impressive but in the same time, completion rates are disappointing. Understanding the mechanisms of dropping out based on the learner profile arises as a crucial task in MOOCs, since it will allow intervening at the right moment in order to assist the learner in completing the course. In this paper, the dropout behaviour of learners in a MOOC is thoroughly studied by first extracting features that describe the behavior of learner…
Real-time and open online course resources of MOOCs have attracted a large number of learners in recent years. However, many new questions were emerging about the high dropout rate of learners. For MOOCs platform, predicting the learning status of MOOCs learners in real time with high accuracy is the crucial task, and it also help improve the quality of MOOCs teaching. The prediction task in this paper is inherently a time series prediction problem, and can be treated as time series classification problem, hence this paper proposed a prediction model based on RNNLSTMs and optimization techniqu…
In this work, we explore video lecture interaction in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), which is central to student learning experience on these educational platforms. As a research contribution, we operationalize video lecture clickstreams of students into cognitively plausible higher level behaviors, and construct a quantitative information processing index, which can aid instructors to better understand MOOC hurdles and reason about unsatisfactory learning outcomes. Our results illustrate how such a metric inspired by cognitive psychology can help answer critical questions regarding stud…
Despite the increasing popularity of massive open online courses (MOOCs), many suffer from high dropout and low success rates. Early prediction of student success for targeted intervention is therefore essential to ensure no student is left behind in a course. There exists a large body of research in success prediction for MOOCs, focusing mainly on training models from scratch for individual courses. This setting is impractical in early success prediction as the performance of a student is only known at the end of the course. In this paper, we aim to create early success prediction models that…
Adaptive learning aims to stimulate and meet the needs of individual learners, which requires sophisticated system-level coordination of diverse tasks, including modeling learning resources, estimating student states, and making personalized recommendations. Existing deep learning methods have achieved great success over statistical models; however, they still lack generalization for diverse tasks and suffer from insufficient capacity since they are composed of highly-coupled task-specific architectures and rely on small-scale, coarse-grained recommendation scenarios. To realize the idea of ge…
Understanding why students stopout will help in understanding how students learn in MOOCs. In this report, part of a 3 unit compendium, we describe how we build accurate predictive models of MOOC student stopout. We document a scalable, stopout prediction methodology, end to end, from raw source data to model analysis. We attempted to predict stopout for the Fall 2012 offering of 6.002x. This involved the meticulous and crowd-sourced engineering of over 25 predictive features extracted for thousands of students, the creation of temporal and non-temporal data representations for use in predicti…
With the rapid emergence of K-12 online learning platforms, a new era of education has been opened up. It is crucial to have a dropout warning framework to preemptively identify K-12 students who are at risk of dropping out of the online courses. Prior researchers have focused on predicting dropout in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), which often deliver higher education, i.e., graduate level courses at top institutions. However, few studies have focused on developing a machine learning approach for students in K-12 online courses. In this paper, we develop a machine learning framework to c…
Student performance prediction is critical to online education. It can benefit many downstream tasks on online learning platforms, such as estimating dropout rates, facilitating strategic intervention, and enabling adaptive online learning. Interactive online question pools provide students with interesting interactive questions to practice their knowledge in online education. However, little research has been done on student performance prediction in interactive online question pools. Existing work on student performance prediction targets at online learning platforms with predefined course c…
To increase efficacy in traditional classroom courses as well as in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), automated systems supporting the instructor are needed. One important problem is to automatically detect students that are going to do poorly in a course early enough to be able to take remedial actions. Existing grade prediction systems focus on maximizing the accuracy of the prediction while overseeing the importance of issuing timely and personalized predictions. This paper proposes an algorithm that predicts the final grade of each student in a class. It issues a prediction for each stu…
