Incorporating constraints is a major concern in probabilistic machine learning. A wide variety of problems require predictions to be integrated with reasoning about constraints, from modelling routes on maps to approving loan predictions. In the former, we may require the prediction model to respect the presence of physical paths between the nodes on the map, and in the latter, we may require that the prediction model respect fairness constraints that ensure that outcomes are not subject to bias. Broadly speaking, constraints may be probabilistic, logical or causal, but the overarching challenge is to determine if and how a model can be learnt that handles all the declared constraints. To the best of our knowledge, this is largely an open problem. In this paper, we consider a mathematical inquiry on how the learning of tractable probabilistic models, such as sum-product networks, is possible while incorporating constraints.
Probabilistic models learned as density estimators can be exploited in representation learning beside being toolboxes used to answer inference queries only. However, how to extract useful representations highly depends on the particular model involved. We argue that tractable inference, i.e. inference that can be computed in polynomial time, can enable general schemes to extract features from black box models. We plan to investigate how Tractable Probabilistic Models (TPMs) can be exploited to generate embeddings by random query evaluations. We devise two experimental designs to assess and com…
Tractable Representation Learning with Probabilistic Circuits
Technische Universität Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）；University of Texas, Dallas（德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校）；University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；Universität Bremen（不来梅大学）；University of Texas at Dallas（德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校）
Counterfactual examples are an appealing class of post-hoc explanations for machine learning models. Given input $x$ of class $y_1$, its counterfactual is a contrastive example $x^\prime$ of another class $y_0$. Current approaches primarily solve this task by a complex optimization: define an objective function based on the loss of the counterfactual outcome $y_0$ with hard or soft constraints, then optimize this function as a black-box. This "deep learning" approach, however, is rather slow, sometimes tricky, and may result in unrealistic counterfactual examples. In this work, we propose a no…
Tsinghua University（清华大学）；University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；Peking University（北京大学）；Beijing Institute for General Artificial Intelligence（北京通用人工智能研究院）
Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a general and unified computational framework for tractable probabilistic models that support efficient computation of various inference tasks (e.g., computing marginal probabilities). Towards enabling such reasoning capabilities in complex real-world tasks, Liu et al. (2022) propose to distill knowledge (through latent variable assignments) from less tractable but more expressive deep generative models. However, it is still unclear what factors make this distillation work well. In this paper, we theoretically and empirically discover that the performance of a …
University of California Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；Washington University in St. Louis（圣路易斯华盛顿大学）
Generating functions, which are widely used in combinatorics and probability theory, encode function values into the coefficients of a polynomial. In this paper, we explore their use as a tractable probabilistic model, and propose probabilistic generating circuits (PGCs) for their efficient representation. PGCs are strictly more expressive efficient than many existing tractable probabilistic models, including determinantal point processes (DPPs), probabilistic circuits (PCs) such as sum-product networks, and tractable graphical models. We contend that PGCs are not just a theoretical framework …
Bayesian structure learning allows one to capture uncertainty over the causal directed acyclic graph (DAG) responsible for generating given data. In this work, we present Tractable Uncertainty for STructure learning (TRUST), a framework for approximate posterior inference that relies on probabilistic circuits as the representation of our posterior belief. In contrast to sample-based posterior approximations, our representation can capture a much richer space of DAGs, while also being able to tractably reason about the uncertainty through a range of useful inference queries. We empirically show…
Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) are expressive probabilistic models that provide exact, tractable inference. They achieve this efficiency by making use of local independence. On the other hand, mixtures of exchangeable variable models (MEVMs) are a class of tractable probabilistic models that make use of exchangeability of discrete random variables to render inference tractable. Exchangeability, which arises naturally in relational domains, has not been considered for efficient representation and inference in SPNs yet. The contribution of this paper is a novel probabilistic model which we call Exc…
University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）
Probabilistic representations, such as Bayesian and Markov networks, are fundamental to much of statistical machine learning. Thus, learning probabilistic representations directly from data is a deep challenge, the main computational bottleneck being inference that is intractable. Tractable learning is a powerful new paradigm that attempts to learn distributions that support efficient probabilistic querying. By leveraging local structure, representations such as sum-product networks (SPNs) can capture high tree-width models with many hidden layers, essentially a deep architecture, while still …
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）
Moral responsibility is a major concern in autonomous systems, with applications ranging from self-driving cars to kidney exchanges. Although there have been recent attempts to formalise responsibility and blame, among similar notions, the problem of learning within these formalisms has been unaddressed. From the viewpoint of such systems, the urgent questions are: (a) How can models of moral scenarios and blameworthiness be extracted and learnt automatically from data? (b) How can judgements be computed effectively and efficiently, given the split-second decision points faced by some systems?…
We consider the problem of explaining a class of tractable deep probabilistic models, the Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) and present an algorithm ExSPN to generate explanations. To this effect, we define the notion of a context-specific independence tree(CSI-tree) and present an iterative algorithm that converts an SPN to a CSI-tree. The resulting CSI-tree is both interpretable and explainable to the domain expert. We achieve this by extracting the conditional independencies encoded by the SPN and approximating the local context specified by the structure of the SPN. Our extensive empirical evalu…
In recent years, several probabilistic techniques have been applied to various debugging problems. However, most existing probabilistic debugging systems use relatively simple statistical models, and fail to generalize across multiple programs. In this work, we propose Tractable Fault Localization Models (TFLMs) that can be learned from data, and probabilistically infer the location of the bug. While most previous statistical debugging methods generalize over many executions of a single program, TFLMs are trained on a corpus of previously seen buggy programs, and learn to identify recurring pa…
Probabilistic Boolean Networks (PBNs) have been previously proposed so as to gain insights into complex dy- namical systems. However, identification of large networks and of the underlying discrete Markov Chain which describes their temporal evolution, still remains a challenge. In this paper, we introduce an equivalent representation for the PBN, the Stochastic Conjunctive Normal Form (SCNF), which paves the way to a scalable learning algorithm and helps predict long- run dynamic behavior of large-scale systems. Moreover, SCNF allows its efficient sampling so as to statistically infer multi- …
TU Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）；The University of Texas at Dallas（德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校）；Hessian Center for AI (hessian.AI)（黑森人工智能中心 (hessian.AI)）
While probabilistic models are an important tool for studying causality, doing so suffers from the intractability of inference. As a step towards tractable causal models, we consider the problem of learning interventional distributions using sum-product networks (SPNs) that are over-parameterized by gate functions, e.g., neural networks. Providing an arbitrarily intervened causal graph as input, effectively subsuming Pearl's do-operator, the gate function predicts the parameters of the SPN. The resulting interventional SPNs are motivated and illustrated by a structural causal model themed arou…
University of California, Los Angeles（加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校）
Computing expected predictions of discriminative models is a fundamental task in machine learning that appears in many interesting applications such as fairness, handling missing values, and data analysis. Unfortunately, computing expectations of a discriminative model with respect to a probability distribution defined by an arbitrary generative model has been proven to be hard in general. In fact, the task is intractable even for simple models such as logistic regression and a naive Bayes distribution. In this paper, we identify a pair of generative and discriminative models that enables trac…
Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are a promising avenue for probabilistic modeling. They combine advantages of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) with those of neural networks (NNs). Crucially, however, they are tractable probabilistic models, supporting efficient and exact computation of many probabilistic inference queries, such as marginals and MAP. Further, since PCs are structured computation graphs, they can take advantage of deep-learning-style parameter updates, which greatly improves their scalability. However, this innovation also makes PCs prone to overfitting, which has been observe…
University of California, Los Angeles（加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校）
Scaling probabilistic models to large realistic problems and datasets is a key challenge in machine learning. Central to this effort is the development of tractable probabilistic models (TPMs): models whose structure guarantees efficient probabilistic inference algorithms. The current landscape of TPMs is fragmented: there exist various kinds of TPMs with different strengths and weaknesses. Two of the most prominent classes of TPMs are determinantal point processes (DPPs) and probabilistic circuits (PCs). This paper provides the first systematic study of their relationship. We propose a unifie…
Einsum Networks: Fast and Scalable Learning of Tractable Probabilistic Circuits
Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）；Technical University Darmstadt（达姆施塔特技术大学）；Graz University of Technology（格拉茨理工大学）；University California Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）
Tsinghua University（清华大学）；University of California, Los Angeles（加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校）
Computing the expectation of kernel functions is a ubiquitous task in machine learning, with applications from classical support vector machines to exploiting kernel embeddings of distributions in probabilistic modeling, statistical inference, causal discovery, and deep learning. In all these scenarios, we tend to resort to Monte Carlo estimates as expectations of kernels are intractable in general. In this work, we characterize the conditions under which we can compute expected kernels exactly and efficiently, by leveraging recent advances in probabilistic circuit representations. We first co…
Probabilistic Circuits That Know What They Don't Know
TU Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）；Hessian Center for AI (hessian.AI)（黑森人工智能中心）；German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI)（德国人工智能研究中心）；Centre for Cognitive Science TU Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学认知科学中心）
Decision Trees are some of the most popular machine learning models today due to their out-of-the-box performance and interpretability. Often, Decision Trees models are constructed greedily in a top-down fashion via heuristic search criteria, such as Gini impurity or entropy. However, trees constructed in this manner are sensitive to minor fluctuations in training data and are prone to overfitting. In contrast, Bayesian approaches to tree construction formulate the selection process as a posterior inference problem; such approaches are more stable and provide greater theoretical guarantees. Ho…
A sequence of random variables is exchangeable if its joint distribution is invariant under variable permutations. We introduce exchangeable variable models (EVMs) as a novel class of probabilistic models whose basic building blocks are partially exchangeable sequences, a generalization of exchangeable sequences. We prove that a family of tractable EVMs is optimal under zero-one loss for a large class of functions, including parity and threshold functions, and strictly subsumes existing tractable independence-based model families. Extensive experiments show that EVMs outperform state of the ar…
Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a tractable representation of probability distributions allowing for exact and efficient computation of likelihoods and marginals. There has been significant recent progress on improving the scale and expressiveness of PCs. However, PC training performance plateaus as model size increases. We discover that most capacity in existing large PC structures is wasted: fully-connected parameter layers are only sparsely used. We propose two operations: pruning and growing, that exploit the sparsity of PC structures. Specifically, the pruning operation removes unimporta…
University of California Los Angeles（加利福尼亚大学洛杉矶分校）
Decision trees are a popular family of models due to their attractive properties such as interpretability and ability to handle heterogeneous data. Concurrently, missing data is a prevalent occurrence that hinders performance of machine learning models. As such, handling missing data in decision trees is a well studied problem. In this paper, we tackle this problem by taking a probabilistic approach. At deployment time, we use tractable density estimators to compute the "expected prediction" of our models. At learning time, we fine-tune parameters of already learned trees by minimizing their "…
Scaling Probabilistic Circuits via Monarch Matrices
Department of Computer Science, University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校计算机科学系）；Department of Computer Science, Stanford University（斯坦福大学计算机科学系）
Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；University of Bari（巴里大学）
Sum-Product Networks (SPNs) are recently introduced deep tractable probabilistic models by which several kinds of inference queries can be answered exactly and in a tractable time. Up to now, they have been largely used as black box density estimators, assessed only by comparing their likelihood scores only. In this paper we explore and exploit the inner representations learned by SPNs. We do this with a threefold aim: first we want to get a better understanding of the inner workings of SPNs; secondly, we seek additional ways to evaluate one SPN model and compare it against other probabilistic…
Inference in expressive probabilistic models is generally intractable, which makes them difficult to learn and limits their applicability. Sum-product networks are a class of deep models where, surprisingly, inference remains tractable even when an arbitrary number of hidden layers are present. In this paper, we generalize this result to a much broader set of learning problems: all those where inference consists of summing a function over a semiring. This includes satisfiability, constraint satisfaction, optimization, integration, and others. In any semiring, for summation to be tractable it s…
Algorithmic fairness involves expressing notions such as equity, or reasonable treatment, as quantifiable measures that a machine learning algorithm can optimise. Most work in the literature to date has focused on classification problems where the prediction is categorical, such as accepting or rejecting a loan application. This is in part because classification fairness measures are easily computed by comparing the rates of outcomes, leading to behaviours such as ensuring that the same fraction of eligible men are selected as eligible women. But such measures are computationally difficult to …
Time series forecasting is often fundamental to scientific and engineering problems and enables decision making. With ever increasing data set sizes, a trivial solution to scale up predictions is to assume independence between interacting time series. However, modeling statistical dependencies can improve accuracy and enable analysis of interaction effects. Deep learning methods are well suited for this problem, but multivariate models often assume a simple parametric distribution and do not scale to high dimensions. In this work we model the multivariate temporal dynamics of time series via a…
Active learning methods, like uncertainty sampling, combined with probabilistic prediction techniques have achieved success in various problems like image classification and text classification. For more complex multivariate prediction tasks, the relationships between labels play an important role in designing structured classifiers with better performance. However, computational time complexity limits prevalent probabilistic methods from effectively supporting active learning. Specifically, while non-probabilistic methods based on structured support vector machines can be tractably applied to…
