一个竞争病毒模型的分析、在线估计和验证
Analysis, Online Estimation, and Validation of a Competing Virus Model
摘要:
本文介绍了一个离散时间的竞争病毒模型,并给出了使该模型适定的必要假设。我们分析系统探索其不同的均衡。给出了从时间序列数据中估计模型参数的充要条件,并介绍了一种在线估计算法。我们采用了两个竞争的补贴计划,从美国农业部的数据集,以验证模型采用的识别技术。据我们所知,这项工作是第一个研究竞争的病毒模型在离散时间,在线识别传播参数的时间序列数据,并验证所述模型使用真实数据。这些新的贡献是重要的应用程序,因为真正的数据是自然采样。
英文摘要:
In this paper we introduce a discrete time competing virus model and the assumptions necessary for the model to be well posed. We analyze the system exploring its different equilibria. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the estimation of the model parameters from time series data and introduce an online estimation algorithm. We employ a dataset of two competing subsidy programs from the US Department of Agriculture to validate the model by employing the identification techniques. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to study competing virus models in discrete-time, online identification of spread parameters from time series data, and validation of said models using real data. These new contributions are important for applications since real data is naturally sampled.
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