中断分析模型对电力系统领域扩展规划问题的影响
The impact of analytical outage modeling on expansion planning problems in the area of power systems
摘要：
扩展规划问题是指能源生产或储存所需的货币和单位投资。这些问题的一个内在因素是各方面的随机性因素，例如机组的发电量、气候变化或电网中断的频率和持续时间。特别是对于后者，停电建模是至关重要的，要仔细考虑在其核心的分布式发电系统，如微电网设计时。到目前为止，在大多数研究中，使用单一的统计分布，如泊松过程。然而，通过仔细研究纽约州提供的真实停电数据，可以观察到停电似乎并不来自同一分布。在某些年份，每次中断的平均持续时间会出现巨大的峰值，这是因为灾难性事件。因此，在这项研究中，我们提出并测试了一种替代建模停电事件。这种替代方案将基于这样一个前提，即停电可以大致分为两类：定期停电和严重停电。在这种分类法下，仍然可以假设每种类型的事件都遵循泊松过程，但一般来说，中断遵循泊松过程，这实际上是这两种类型的叠加。强化学习方法被用来解决扩展规划问题，并使用真实的位置特定的数据。结果验证了我们最初的假设，并表明优化结果显着影响停电建模。总之，准确建模电网中断事件并直接测量灾难性故障期间能源系统的可靠性性能可以提供宝贵的工具和见解，因此可以用于为此类中断做最好的准备。
英文摘要：
Expansion planning problems refer to the monetary and unit investment needed for energy production or storage. An inherent element in these problems is the element of stochasticity in various aspects, such as the generation output of the units, climate change or frequency and duration of grid outages. Especially for the latter one, outage modeling is crucial to be carefully considered when designing systems with distributed generation at their core, such as microgrids. In most studies so far, a single statistical distribution is used, such as a Poisson Process. However, by taking a closer look at the real outage data provided by the state of NY, it is observed that the outages do not seem to come from the same distribution. In some years, there is a huge spike in the average duration per outage and this is because of catastrophic events. Therefore, in this study we propose and test an alternative modeling for outage events. This alternative scheme will be based on the premise that outages can be broadly classified into two categories: regular and severe. Under this taxonomy, it can still be assumed that each type of events follows a Poisson Process but outages, in general, follow a Poisson Process which is truly a superposition of these two types. A reinforcement learning approach is used to solve the expansion planning problem and real location-specific data are used. The results verify our initial hypothesis and show that the optimization results are significantly affected by the outage modeling. To sum up, modeling accurately the grid outage events and measuring directly the reliability performance of an energy system during catastrophic failures could provide invaluable tools and insights that could therefore be used for the best possible preparation for this type of outages.
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