基于Agent的有组织犯罪招募模型
A Policy-oriented Agent-based Model of Recruitment into Organized Crime
摘要：
犯罪组织利用其在领土和当地社区的存在招募新的劳动力，以开展其犯罪活动和业务。吸引个人的能力对于维持对这些群体所定居领土的权力和控制至关重要。本研究提出了一个基于代理的模型（ABM）的形式化，开发和分析，模拟巴勒莫（西西里岛）的一个街区，目的是了解导致个人招募到有组织犯罪集团（OCG）的途径。使用经验数据的社会，经济和犯罪状况的分析下，该地区，我们使用多层网络的方法来模拟这种情况。作为最终目标，我们测试不同的政策，以打击招募到OCG。这些设想基于预防和干预的两个不同方面：㈠初级和二级社会化; ㈡执法目标战略。
英文摘要：
Criminal organizations exploit their presence on territories and local communities to recruit new workforce in order to carry out their criminal activities and business. The ability to attract individuals is crucial for maintaining power and control over the territories in which these groups are settled. This study proposes the formalization, development and analysis of an agent-based model (ABM) that simulates a neighborhood of Palermo (Sicily) with the aim to understand the pathways that lead individuals to recruitment into organized crime groups (OCGs). Using empirical data on social, economic and criminal conditions of the area under analysis, we use a multi-layer network approach to simulate this scenario. As the final goal, we test different policies to counter recruitment into OCGs. These scenarios are based on two different dimensions of prevention and intervention: (i) primary and secondary socialization and (ii) law enforcement targeting strategies.
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