K-means is a classical clustering algorithm with wide applications. However, soft K-means, or fuzzy c-means at m=1, remains unsolved since 1981. To address this challenging open problem, we propose a novel clustering model, i.e. Probabilistic K-Means (PKM), which is also a nonlinear programming model constrained on linear equalities and linear inequalities. In theory, we can solve the model by active gradient projection, while inefficiently. Thus, we further propose maximum-step active gradient projection and fast maximum-step active gradient projection to solve it more efficiently. By experiments, we evaluate the performance of PKM and how well the proposed methods solve it in five aspects: initialization robustness, clustering performance, descending stability, iteration number, and convergence speed.
This work offers a broad perspective on probabilistic modeling and inference in light of recent advances in probabilistic programming, in which models are formally expressed in Turing-complete programming languages. We consider a typical workflow and how probabilistic programming languages can help to automate this workflow, especially in the matching of models with inference methods. We focus on two properties of a model that are critical in this matching: its structure---the conditional dependencies between random variables---and its form---the precise mathematical definition of those depend…
Generating interpretable visualizations from complex data is a common problem in many applications. Two key ingredients for tackling this issue are clustering and representation learning. However, current methods do not yet successfully combine the strengths of these two approaches. Existing representation learning models which rely on latent topological structure such as self-organising maps, exhibit markedly lower clustering performance compared to recent deep clustering methods. To close this performance gap, we (a) present a novel way to fit self-organizing maps with probabilistic cluster …
We propose design guidelines for a probabilistic programming facility suitable for deployment as a part of a production software system. As a reference implementation, we introduce Infergo, a probabilistic programming facility for Go, a modern programming language of choice for server-side software development. We argue that a similar probabilistic programming facility can be added to most modern general-purpose programming languages. Probabilistic programming enables automatic tuning of program parameters and algorithmic decision making through probabilistic inference based on the data. To fa…
National Physical Laboratory（英国国家物理实验室）；Université de Bourgogne Franche-Comté（勃艮第-弗朗什-孔泰大学）；Digital Surf（Digital Surf公司）
This paper proposes a variant of the method of Guédon and Verhynin for estimating the cluster matrix in the Mixture of Gaussians framework via Semi-Definite Programming. A clustering oriented embedding is deduced from this estimate. The procedure is suitable for very high dimensional data because it is based on pairwise distances only. Theoretical garantees are provided and an eigenvalue optimisation approach is proposed for computing the embedding. The performance of the method is illustrated via Monte Carlo experiements and comparisons with other embeddings from the literature.
Visium（Visium公司）；Schlumberger-Doll Research（斯伦贝谢多尔研究中心）；University of Geneva（日内瓦大学）
We are interested in clustering parts of a given single multi-variate series in an unsupervised manner. We would like to segment and cluster the series such that the resulting blocks present in each cluster are coherent with respect to a known model (e.g. physics model). Data points are said to be coherent if they can be described using this model with the same parameters. We have designed an algorithm based on dynamic programming with constraints on the number of clusters, the number of transitions as well as the minimal size of a block such that the clusters are coherent with this process. W…
University of California at Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Monash University（莫纳什大学）
We propose a novel probabilistic approach to multilevel clustering problems based on composite transportation distance, which is a variant of transportation distance where the underlying metric is Kullback-Leibler divergence. Our method involves solving a joint optimization problem over spaces of probability measures to simultaneously discover grouping structures within groups and among groups. By exploiting the connection of our method to the problem of finding composite transportation barycenters, we develop fast and efficient optimization algorithms even for potentially large-scale multilev…
We present a new algorithm for approximate inference in probabilistic programs, based on a stochastic gradient for variational programs. This method is efficient without restrictions on the probabilistic program; it is particularly practical for distributions which are not analytically tractable, including highly structured distributions that arise in probabilistic programs. We show how to automatically derive mean-field probabilistic programs and optimize them, and demonstrate that our perspective improves inference efficiency over other algorithms.
Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center（纪念斯隆-凯特琳癌症中心）；Humboldt University of Berlin（柏林洪堡大学）；University of Basel（巴塞尔大学）；University of Zurich（苏黎世大学）；ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）
We present a novel probabilistic clustering model for objects that are represented via pairwise distances and observed at different time points. The proposed method utilizes the information given by adjacent time points to find the underlying cluster structure and obtain a smooth cluster evolution. This approach allows the number of objects and clusters to differ at every time point, and no identification on the identities of the objects is needed. Further, the model does not require the number of clusters being specified in advance -- they are instead determined automatically using a Dirichle…
Clustering is a fundamental task in data analysis, and spectral clustering has been recognized as a promising approach to it. Given a graph describing the relationship between data, spectral clustering explores the underlying cluster structure in two stages. The first stage embeds the nodes of the graph in real space, and the second stage groups the embedded nodes into several clusters. The use of the $k$-means method in the grouping stage is currently standard practice. We present a spectral clustering algorithm that uses convex programming in the grouping stage and study how well it works. T…
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；British Antarctic Survey（英国南极调查局）
Ice cores record crucial information about past climate. However, before ice core data can have scientific value, the chronology must be inferred by estimating the age as a function of depth. Under certain conditions, chemicals locked in the ice display quasi-periodic cycles that delineate annual layers. Manually counting these noisy seasonal patterns to infer the chronology can be an imperfect and time-consuming process, and does not capture uncertainty in a principled fashion. In addition, several ice cores may be collected from a region, introducing an aspect of spatial correlation between …
It is a significant challenge to design probabilistic programming systems that can accommodate a wide variety of inference strategies within a unified framework. Noting that the versatility of modern automatic differentiation frameworks is based in large part on the unifying concept of tensors, we describe a software abstraction for integration --functional tensors-- that captures many of the benefits of tensors, while also being able to describe continuous probability distributions. Moreover, functional tensors are a natural candidate for generalized variable elimination and parallel-scan fil…
Epidemiology simulations have become a fundamental tool in the fight against the epidemics of various infectious diseases like AIDS and malaria. However, the complicated and stochastic nature of these simulators can mean their output is difficult to interpret, which reduces their usefulness to policymakers. In this paper, we introduce an approach that allows one to treat a large class of population-based epidemiology simulators as probabilistic generative models. This is achieved by hijacking the internal random number generator calls, through the use of a universal probabilistic programming s…
Uber AI Labs（优步人工智能实验室）；Uber Technologies, Inc.（优步科技公司）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
Pyro is a probabilistic programming language built on Python as a platform for developing advanced probabilistic models in AI research. To scale to large datasets and high-dimensional models, Pyro uses stochastic variational inference algorithms and probability distributions built on top of PyTorch, a modern GPU-accelerated deep learning framework. To accommodate complex or model-specific algorithmic behavior, Pyro leverages Poutine, a library of composable building blocks for modifying the behavior of probabilistic programs.
Probabilistic programming is a powerful abstraction for statistical machine learning. Applying static analysis methods to probabilistic programs could serve to optimize the learning process, automatically verify properties of models, and improve the programming interface for users. This field of static analysis for probabilistic programming (SAPP) is young and unorganized, consisting of a constellation of techniques with various goals and limitations. The primary aim of this work is to synthesize the major contributions of the SAPP field within an organizing structure and context. We provide t…
Probabilistic programming is a growing area that strives to make statistical analysis more accessible, by separating probabilistic modelling from probabilistic inference. In practice this decoupling is difficult. No single inference algorithm can be used as a probabilistic programming back-end that is simultaneously reliable, efficient, black-box, and general. Probabilistic programming languages often choose a single algorithm to apply to a given problem, thus inheriting its limitations. While substantial work has been done both to formalise probabilistic programming and to improve efficiency …
Liverpool John Moores University（利物浦约翰摩尔斯大学）；Universitat de València（瓦伦西亚大学）
Quantum Clustering is a powerful method to detect clusters in data with mixed density. However, it is very sensitive to a length parameter that is inherent to the Schrödinger equation. In addition, linking data points into clusters requires local estimates of covariance that are also controlled by length parameters. This raises the question of how to adjust the control parameters of the Schrödinger equation for optimal clustering. We propose a probabilistic framework that provides an objective function for the goodness-of-fit to the data, enabling the control parameters to be optimised within …
Computer Science & Artificial Intelligence Laboratory（计算机科学与人工智能实验室）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Department of Brain & Cognitive Sciences（大脑与认知科学系）
Probabilistic techniques are central to data analysis, but different approaches can be difficult to apply, combine, and compare. This paper introduces composable generative population models (CGPMs), a computational abstraction that extends directed graphical models and can be used to describe and compose a broad class of probabilistic data analysis techniques. Examples include hierarchical Bayesian models, multivariate kernel methods, discriminative machine learning, clustering algorithms, dimensionality reduction, and arbitrary probabilistic programs. We also demonstrate the integration of C…
Databases are widespread, yet extracting relevant data can be difficult. Without substantial domain knowledge, multivariate search queries often return sparse or uninformative results. This paper introduces an approach for searching structured data based on probabilistic programming and nonparametric Bayes. Users specify queries in a probabilistic language that combines standard SQL database search operators with an information theoretic ranking function called predictive relevance. Predictive relevance can be calculated by a fast sparse matrix algorithm based on posterior samples from CrossCa…
Stan is a probabilistic programming language that is popular in the statistics community, with a high-level syntax for expressing probabilistic models. Stan differs by nature from generative probabilistic programming languages like Church, Anglican, or Pyro. This paper presents a comprehensive compilation scheme to compile any Stan model to a generative language and proves its correctness. We use our compilation scheme to build two new backends for the Stanc3 compiler targeting Pyro and NumPyro. Experimental results show that the NumPyro backend yields a 2.3x speedup compared to Stan in geomet…
We introduce a method for using deep neural networks to amortize the cost of inference in models from the family induced by universal probabilistic programming languages, establishing a framework that combines the strengths of probabilistic programming and deep learning methods. We call what we do "compilation of inference" because our method transforms a denotational specification of an inference problem in the form of a probabilistic program written in a universal programming language into a trained neural network denoted in a neural network specification language. When at test time this neu…
We describe a simple, low-level approach for embedding probabilistic programming in a deep learning ecosystem. In particular, we distill probabilistic programming down to a single abstraction---the random variable. Our lightweight implementation in TensorFlow enables numerous applications: a model-parallel variational auto-encoder (VAE) with 2nd-generation tensor processing units (TPUv2s); a data-parallel autoregressive model (Image Transformer) with TPUv2s; and multi-GPU No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS). For both a state-of-the-art VAE on 64x64 ImageNet and Image Transformer on 256x256 CelebA-HQ, our…
University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；MILA（蒙特利尔学习算法研究所）
Naive approaches to amortized inference in probabilistic programs with unbounded loops can produce estimators with infinite variance. This is particularly true of importance sampling inference in programs that explicitly include rejection sampling as part of the user-programmed generative procedure. In this paper we develop a new and efficient amortized importance sampling estimator. We prove finite variance of our estimator and empirically demonstrate our method's correctness and efficiency compared to existing alternatives on generative programs containing rejection sampling loops and discus…
University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）；KAIST（韩国科学技术院）；University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）
This book is a graduate-level introduction to probabilistic programming. It not only provides a thorough background for anyone wishing to use a probabilistic programming system, but also introduces the techniques needed to design and build these systems. It is aimed at people who have an undergraduate-level understanding of either or, ideally, both probabilistic machine learning and programming languages. We start with a discussion of model-based reasoning and explain why conditioning is a foundational computation central to the fields of probabilistic machine learning and artificial intellige…
Babylon Health（巴比伦健康）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）
We elaborate on using importance sampling for causal reasoning, in particular for counterfactual inference. We show how this can be implemented natively in probabilistic programming. By considering the structure of the counterfactual query, one can significantly optimise the inference process. We also consider design choices to enable further optimisations. We introduce MultiVerse, a probabilistic programming prototype engine for approximate causal reasoning. We provide experimental results and compare with Pyro, an existing probabilistic programming framework with some of causal reasoning too…
Aalto University（阿尔托大学）；NVIDIA AI Technology Center（英伟达人工智能技术中心）；University of Manchester（曼彻斯特大学）；University of Helsinki（赫尔辛基大学）
We present d3p, a software package designed to help fielding runtime efficient widely-applicable Bayesian inference under differential privacy guarantees. d3p achieves general applicability to a wide range of probabilistic modelling problems by implementing the differentially private variational inference algorithm, allowing users to fit any parametric probabilistic model with a differentiable density function. d3p adopts the probabilistic programming paradigm as a powerful way for the user to flexibly define such models. We demonstrate the use of our software on a hierarchical logistic regres…
Datasets with hundreds of variables and many missing values are commonplace. In this setting, it is both statistically and computationally challenging to detect true predictive relationships between variables and also to suppress false positives. This paper proposes an approach that combines probabilistic programming, information theory, and non-parametric Bayes. It shows how to use Bayesian non-parametric modeling to (i) build an ensemble of joint probability models for all the variables; (ii) efficiently detect marginal independencies; and (iii) estimate the conditional mutual information be…
In this paper, we present a local information theoretic approach to explicitly learn probabilistic clustering of a discrete random variable. Our formulation yields a convex maximization problem for which it is NP-hard to find the global optimum. In order to algorithmically solve this optimization problem, we propose two relaxations that are solved via gradient ascent and alternating maximization. Experiments on the MSR Sentence Completion Challenge, MovieLens 100K, and Reuters21578 datasets demonstrate that our approach is competitive with existing techniques and worthy of further investigatio…
Probabilistic programming makes it easy to represent a probabilistic model as a program. Building an individual model, however, is only one step of probabilistic modeling. The broader challenge of probabilistic modeling is in understanding and navigating spaces of alternative models. There is currently no good way to represent these spaces of alternative models, despite their central role. We present an extension of probabilistic programming that lets each program represent a network of interrelated probabilistic models. We give a formal semantics for these multi-model probabilistic programs, …
We present a Bayesian approach to machine learning with probabilistic programs. In our approach, training on available data is implemented as inference on a hierarchical model. The posterior distribution of model parameters is then used to \textit{stochastically condition} a complementary model, such that inference on new data yields the same posterior distribution of latent parameters corresponding to the new data as inference on a hierachical model on the combination of both previously available and new data, at a lower computation cost. We frame the approach as a design pattern of probabili…
We show that the standard computational pipeline of probabilistic programming systems (PPSs) can be inefficient for estimating expectations and introduce the concept of expectation programming to address this. In expectation programming, the aim of the backend inference engine is to directly estimate expected return values of programs, as opposed to approximating their conditional distributions. This distinction, while subtle, allows us to achieve substantial performance improvements over the standard PPS computational pipeline by tailoring computation to the expectation we care about. We real…
We design a new myopic strategy for a wide class of sequential design of experiment (DOE) problems, where the goal is to collect data in order to to fulfil a certain problem specific goal. Our approach, Myopic Posterior Sampling (MPS), is inspired by the classical posterior (Thompson) sampling algorithm for multi-armed bandits and leverages the flexibility of probabilistic programming and approximate Bayesian inference to address a broad set of problems. Empirically, this general-purpose strategy is competitive with more specialised methods in a wide array of DOE tasks, and more importantly, e…
Random Normed k-Means: A Paradigm-Shift in Clustering within Probabilistic Metric Spaces
Higher normal school（高等师范学校）；National Higher School for Computer Science and Systems Analysis（国家计算机科学与系统分析高等学院）；Mohammed V University in Rabat（拉巴特穆罕默德五世大学）
University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；Google（谷歌）
In this paper, we propose a model-based clustering method (TVClust) that robustly incorporates noisy side information as soft-constraints and aims to seek a consensus between side information and the observed data. Our method is based on a nonparametric Bayesian hierarchical model that combines the probabilistic model for the data instance and the one for the side-information. An efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm is proposed for posterior inference. Using the small-variance asymptotics of our probabilistic model, we then derive a new deterministic clustering algorithm (RDP-means). It can be v…
Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；University of Freiburg（弗莱堡大学）
This work presents the concept of kernel mean embedding and kernel probabilistic programming in the context of stochastic systems. We propose formulations to represent, compare, and propagate uncertainties for fairly general stochastic dynamics in a distribution-free manner. The new tools enjoy sound theory rooted in functional analysis and wide applicability as demonstrated in distinct numerical examples. The implication of this new concept is a new mode of thinking about the statistical nature of uncertainty in dynamical systems.
We present VAEL, a neuro-symbolic generative model integrating variational autoencoders (VAE) with the reasoning capabilities of probabilistic logic (L) programming. Besides standard latent subsymbolic variables, our model exploits a probabilistic logic program to define a further structured representation, which is used for logical reasoning. The entire process is end-to-end differentiable. Once trained, VAEL can solve new unseen generation tasks by (i) leveraging the previously acquired knowledge encoded in the neural component and (ii) exploiting new logical programs on the structured laten…
NumPyro is a lightweight library that provides an alternate NumPy backend to the Pyro probabilistic programming language with the same modeling interface, language primitives and effect handling abstractions. Effect handlers allow Pyro's modeling API to be extended to NumPyro despite its being built atop a fundamentally different JAX-based functional backend. In this work, we demonstrate the power of composing Pyro's effect handlers with the program transformations that enable hardware acceleration, automatic differentiation, and vectorization in JAX. In particular, NumPyro provides an iterati…
Air Force Institute of Technology（空军理工学院）；University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）
We introduce a model-free relax-and-round algorithm for k-means clustering based on a semidefinite relaxation due to Peng and Wei. The algorithm interprets the SDP output as a denoised version of the original data and then rounds this output to a hard clustering. We provide a generic method for proving performance guarantees for this algorithm, and we analyze the algorithm in the context of subgaussian mixture models. We also study the fundamental limits of estimating Gaussian centers by k-means clustering in order to compare our approximation guarantee to the theoretically optimal k-means clu…
Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Adobe Research（Adobe研究院）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）；Google Brain（谷歌大脑）
We propose Edward, a Turing-complete probabilistic programming language. Edward defines two compositional representations---random variables and inference. By treating inference as a first class citizen, on a par with modeling, we show that probabilistic programming can be as flexible and computationally efficient as traditional deep learning. For flexibility, Edward makes it easy to fit the same model using a variety of composable inference methods, ranging from point estimation to variational inference to MCMC. In addition, Edward can reuse the modeling representation as part of inference, f…
In general, the clustering problem is NP-hard, and global optimality cannot be established for non-trivial instances. For high-dimensional data, distance-based methods for clustering or classification face an additional difficulty, the unreliability of distances in very high-dimensional spaces. We propose a distance-based iterative method for clustering data in very high-dimensional space, using the $\ell_1$-metric that is less sensitive to high dimensionality than the Euclidean distance. For $K$ clusters in $\mathbb{R}^n$, the problem decomposes to $K$ problems coupled by probabilities, and a…
Unsupervised clustering algorithm can effectively reduce the dimension of high-dimensional unlabeled data, thus reducing the time and space complexity of data processing. However, the traditional clustering algorithm needs to set the upper bound of the number of categories in advance, and the deep learning clustering algorithm will fall into the problem of local optimum. In order to solve these problems, a probabilistic spatial clustering algorithm based on the Self Discipline Learning(SDL) model is proposed. The algorithm is based on the Gaussian probability distribution of the probability sp…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；NTU Singapore（新加坡南洋理工大学）
We study the foundations of variational inference, which frames posterior inference as an optimisation problem, for probabilistic programming. The dominant approach for optimisation in practice is stochastic gradient descent. In particular, a variant using the so-called reparameterisation gradient estimator exhibits fast convergence in a traditional statistics setting. Unfortunately, discontinuities, which are readily expressible in programming languages, can compromise the correctness of this approach. We consider a simple (higher-order, probabilistic) programming language with conditionals, …
We present the Sum-Product Probabilistic Language (SPPL), a new probabilistic programming language that automatically delivers exact solutions to a broad range of probabilistic inference queries. SPPL translates probabilistic programs into sum-product expressions, a new symbolic representation and associated semantic domain that extends standard sum-product networks to support mixed-type distributions, numeric transformations, logical formulas, and pointwise and set-valued constraints. We formalize SPPL via a novel translation strategy from probabilistic programs to sum-product expressions and…
The Ohio State University（俄亥俄州立大学）；Johns Hopkins University（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学）
We introduce a sketch-and-solve approach to speed up the Peng-Wei semidefinite relaxation of k-means clustering. When the data is appropriately separated we identify the k-means optimal clustering. Otherwise, our approach provides a high-confidence lower bound on the optimal k-means value. This lower bound is data-driven; it does not make any assumption on the data nor how it is generated. We provide code and an extensive set of numerical experiments where we use this approach to certify approximate optimality of clustering solutions obtained by k-means++.
Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；Georgia Tech Research Institute（佐治亚理工研究院）
Neural network-based clustering has recently gained popularity, and in particular a constrained clustering formulation has been proposed to perform transfer learning and image category discovery using deep learning. The core idea is to formulate a clustering objective with pairwise constraints that can be used to train a deep clustering network; therefore the cluster assignments and their underlying feature representations are jointly optimized end-to-end. In this work, we provide a novel clustering formulation to address scalability issues of previous work in terms of optimizing deeper networ…
Ever since the Multilayered Perceptron was first introduced the connectionist community has struggled with the concept of uncertainty and how this could be represented in these types of models. This past decade has seen a lot of effort in trying to join the principled approach of probabilistic modeling with the scalable nature of deep neural networks. While the theoretical benefits of this consolidation are clear, there are also several important practical aspects of these endeavors; namely to force the models we create to represent, learn, and report uncertainty in every prediction that is ma…
Neural-symbolic AI (NeSy) allows neural networks to exploit symbolic background knowledge in the form of logic. It has been shown to aid learning in the limited data regime and to facilitate inference on out-of-distribution data. Probabilistic NeSy focuses on integrating neural networks with both logic and probability theory, which additionally allows learning under uncertainty. A major limitation of current probabilistic NeSy systems, such as DeepProbLog, is their restriction to finite probability distributions, i.e., discrete random variables. In contrast, deep probabilistic programming (DPP…
We introduce a novel method for clustering using a semidefinite programming (SDP) relaxation of the Max k-Cut problem. The approach is based on a new methodology for rounding the solution of an SDP relaxation using iterated linear optimization. We show the vertices of the Max k-Cut relaxation correspond to partitions of the data into at most k sets. We also show the vertices are attractive fixed points of iterated linear optimization. Each step of this iterative process solves a relaxation of the closest vertex problem and leads to a new clustering problem where the underlying clusters are mor…
Complex Event Recognition (CER) systems detect event occurrences in streaming time-stamped input using predefined event patterns. Logic-based approaches are of special interest in CER, since, via Statistical Relational AI, they combine uncertainty-resilient reasoning with time and change, with machine learning, thus alleviating the cost of manual event pattern authoring. We present a system based on Answer Set Programming (ASP), capable of probabilistic reasoning with complex event patterns in the form of weighted rules in the Event Calculus, whose structure and weights are learnt online. We c…
This paper focuses on multi-enrollment speaker recognition which naturally occurs in the task of online speaker clustering, and studies the properties of different scoring back-ends in this scenario. First, we show that popular cosine scoring suffers from poor score calibration with a varying number of enrollment utterances. Second, we propose a simple replacement for cosine scoring based on an extremely constrained version of probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA). The proposed model improves over the cosine scoring for multi-enrollment recognition while keeping the same performanc…
