共享自动驾驶汽车与公共交通的竞争：新加坡案例研究
Competition between shared autonomous vehicles and public transit: A case study in Singapore
摘要：
新兴的自动驾驶汽车（AV）既可以补充公共交通（PT）系统，也可以与之竞争。本研究探讨了竞争的角度来看，AV和PT运营商都是以利润为导向的动态可调供应策略下的五个监管结构，关于AV运营商是否被允许改变车队规模和PT运营商是否被允许调整车头时距。五个场景中有四个是有约束的竞争，而另一个则是无约束的竞争，以寻找纳什均衡。我们从四个利益相关者的角度评估竞争过程以及系统性能-AV运营商，PT运营商，乘客和运输当局。我们还研究了PT补贴对竞争结果的影响，包括基于需求和基于供应的补贴。提出了一种基于运营商历史行为和利润的启发式算法来更新AV和PT的供应策略。一个基于代理的仿真模型实现在第一英里的情况下，淡滨尼，新加坡。我们发现，竞争可以导致更高的利润和更高的系统效率为两个运营商相比，现状。在供应更新之后，PT服务在空间上集中于直接馈送到地铁站的较短路线，并且在时间上集中于高峰时段。平均而言，竞争减少了乘客的旅行时间，但增加了他们的旅行成本。尽管如此，当纳入时间价值时，广义旅行成本降低了。在系统效率方面，公交车供电调整增加了平均车辆负载，并减少了由客车当量（PCE）测量的总车辆行驶公里数，而AV供电调整则相反。
英文摘要：
Emerging autonomous vehicles (AV) can either supplement the public transportation (PT) system or compete with it. This study examines the competitive perspective where both AV and PT operators are profit-oriented with dynamic adjustable supply strategies under five regulatory structures regarding whether the AV operator is allowed to change the fleet size and whether the PT operator is allowed to adjust headway. Four out of the five scenarios are constrained competition while the other one focuses on unconstrained competition to find the Nash Equilibrium. We evaluate the competition process as well as the system performance from the standpoints of four stakeholders -- the AV operator, the PT operator, passengers, and the transport authority. We also examine the impact of PT subsidies on the competition results including both demand-based and supply-based subsidies. A heuristic algorithm is proposed to update supply strategies for AV and PT based on the operators' historical actions and profits. An agent-based simulation model is implemented in the first-mile scenario in Tampines, Singapore. We find that the competition can result in higher profits and higher system efficiency for both operators compared to the status quo. After the supply updates, the PT services are spatially concentrated to shorter routes feeding directly to the subway station and temporally concentrated to peak hours. On average, the competition reduces the travel time of passengers but increases their travel costs. Nonetheless, the generalized travel cost is reduced when incorporating the value of time. With respect to the system efficiency, the bus supply adjustment increases the average vehicle load and reduces the total vehicle kilometer traveled measured by the passenger car equivalent (PCE), while the AV supply adjustment does the opposite.
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