梦幻英超梦之队时间序列建模
Time Series Modeling for Dream Team in Fantasy Premier League
摘要：
英格兰超级联赛中的足球运动员的表现在很大程度上因赛季和球队而异。显然，一种能够预测和分析这些球员在场上滑稽动作的未来的方法将在很大程度上帮助管理。在梦幻超级联赛这样的模拟环境中，来自世界各地的爱好者参与并管理整个赛季的球员目录。由于积分系统的动态性质，没有已知的方法来制定梦之队。本研究的目的是解决这个问题，使用自回归综合移动平均（ARIMA）和递归神经网络（RNNs）的时间序列预测的球员点和随后的最大化的总积分使用线性规划（LPP）的混合。考虑到过去三个赛季的球员积分，通过对ARIMA和RNN进行不同的建模，然后创建一个相同的集合，对当前赛季进行了预测。在此之前，适当的数据预处理技术被部署，以提高准备模型的有效性。采用LPP方法对守门员、后卫、中场和前锋等球员类型以及总预算的约束进行了有效优化。对拟议团队的验证是在即将到来的赛季中完成的，球员们的表现超出了预期，并有助于加强解决方案的可行性。同样，所提出的方法可以扩展到英超联赛的官方经理在球场上。
英文摘要：
The performance of football players in English Premier League varies largely from season to season and for different teams. It is evident that a method capable of forecasting and analyzing the future of these players on-field antics shall assist the management to a great extent. In a simulated environment like the Fantasy Premier League, enthusiasts from all over the world participate and manage the players catalogue for the entire season. Due to the dynamic nature of points system, there is no known approach for the formulation of a dream team. This study aims to tackle this problem by using a hybrid of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) for time series prediction of player points and subsequent maximization of total points using Linear Programming (LPP). Given the player points for the past three seasons, the predictions have been made for the current season by modeling differently for ARIMA and RNN, and then creating an ensemble of the same. Prior to that, proper data preprocessing techniques were deployed to enhance the efficacy of the prepared model. Constraints on the type of players like goalkeepers, defenders, midfielders and forwards along with the total budget were effectively optimized using LPP approach. The validation of the proposed team was done with the performance in upcoming season, where the players outperform as expected, and helped in strengthening the feasibility of the solution. Likewise, the proposed approach can be extended to English Premier League by official managers on-field.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
