基于转基因（RIDL）蚊子的实验性试验的种群动力学建模
Modeling population dynamics based on experimental trials with genetically modified (RIDL) mosquitoes
摘要：
最近，RIDL-SIT技术已在现场测试用于控制埃及伊蚊。这项技术包括释放携带“致命基因”的转基因蚊子。2016年，世界卫生组织（WHO）和泛美卫生组织（PAHO）建议其成员国测试控制埃及伊蚊种群的新技术。然而，迄今为止，有关有效性和生态影响的问题尚未得到深入研究。为了研究这些问题，我们开发了一个与2016年可用信息兼容的生态模型。它提出了一个相互依赖的动态蚊子种群和食物在一个均匀的设置。苔藓虫种群描述在一个随机房室设置的反应规范，这取决于环境中的可用食物。该模型的发展使我们能够指出一些关键的生物学知识是缺失的，可以（应该）产生。杂交水平，干预期间和干预后的人口恢复时间作为干预持续时间和目标的函数，释放数量和干预后的计算在不同的假设下，关于混合动力车的适合度，并与两个实地研究的实际干预措施进行比较。当构建详细模型的必要信息产生时，最小模型应作为详细模型的基础。目前，该模型表明，大自然不会清除非致命的渗入基因。
英文摘要：
Recently, the RIDL-SIT technology has been field-tested for control of Aedes aegypti. The technique consists of releasing genetically modified mosquitoes carrying a "lethal gene". In 2016 the World Health Organisation (WHO) and the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO) recommend to their constituent countries to test the new technologies proposed to control Aedes aegypti populations. However, issues concerning effectiveness and ecological impact have not been thoroughly studied so far. In order to study these issues, we develop an ecological model compatible with the information available as of 2016. It presents an interdependent dynamics of mosquito populations and food in an homogeneous setting. Mosquito populations are described in an stochastic compartmental setup in terms of reaction norms depending on the available food in the environment. The development of the model allows us to indicate some critical biological knowledge that is missing and could (should) be produced. Hybridisation levels, release numbers during and after intervention and population recovery time after the intervention as a function of intervention duration and target are calculated under different hypotheses with regard to the fitness of hybrids and compared with two field studies of actual interventions. The minimal model should serve as a basis for detailed models when the necessary information to construct them is produced. For the time being, the model shows that nature will not clean the non-lethal introgressed genes.
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