南极洲上空2019年春季ozone hole异常行为的早期迹象
Early indications of anomalous behavior in the 2019 spring ozone hole over Antarctica
摘要：
南极冬季平流层准定常行星波活动的水平提供了对臭氧洞在接下来的春季几个月中可能的行为的深入了解。在冬季平流层温度中观测到异常大幅度的准西南振荡，表明极涡可能受到强烈扰动，并可能导致南极臭氧洞面积和平流层臭氧消耗总量大幅减少。在2019年平流层突然变暖（SSW）的前提条件下，8月份南极洲上空的最大QSW振幅约为12 K，仅比2002年前所未有的主要南极SSW之前的条件低2 K。在这些条件下，2019年南极SSW有可能成为主要的SSW。2019年扰乱南极平流层的其他因素是热带太平洋中部和印度洋西部异常温暖的海面温度（SST），以及准两年振荡的东风阶段下降。这些因素的结合--准西南风的大幅幅度、温暖的热带SST和准两年期振荡的过渡阶段--有可能导致臭氧洞的早期破坏，并降低2019年臭氧消耗的总体水平，还可能对南半球的天气状况产生重要的区域性影响。
英文摘要：
The level of quasi-stationary planetary wave (QSW) activity in the Antarctic winter stratosphere provides insights into the likely behavior of the ozone hole in the following spring months. Observation of an anomalously large amplitude of the QSW in winter stratospheric temperatures is an indicator that strong disturbances to the polar vortex are likely to occur, and may lead to large reductions in both the area of the Antarctic ozone hole area and the overall amount of stratospheric ozone that is depleted. In the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) preconditions in 2019, the maximum QSW amplitude over Antarctica in August was approximately 12 K, which was only 2 K less than conditions prior to the unprecedented major Antarctic SSW in 2002. Under these conditions, the Antarctic SSW in 2019 has the potential to become a major SSW. The additional factors disturbing the Antarctic stratosphere in 2019 was anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central tropical Pacific Ocean and western Indian Ocean, and the descending easterly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. The combination of these factors - the large amplitude of the QSW, the warm tropical SSTs and transitioning phase of the QBO - has the potential to cause the early disruption of the ozone hole and reduce the overall level of ozone depletion in 2019, and may also have important regional consequences for weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere.
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