甜蜜的家:量化NCAA篮球统计数据的主场优势
Home Sweet Home: Quantifying Home Court Advantages For NCAA Basketball Statistics
摘要:
框得分统计是全国大学生体育协会(NCAA)篮球表现的基线措施。在2011-2012赛季和2015-2016赛季之间,NCAA球队在主场的表现比在客场的表现更好,几乎所有的得分统计数据都包括了性别和所有三个分区。我们使用来自男女三个赛区超过10万场比赛的盒子得分数据,研究了这种差异背后的因素。中性位置游戏在NCAA的流行提供了一个额外的角度,通过它来检查框得分统计性能的差距,我们认为在现有的文献中没有得到充分利用。我们还估计了一个回归模型,以量化主场优势的盒子得分统计后,控制其他因素,如财产的数量,和球队的实力。此外,我们还研究了记分员和裁判员的偏见。我们提出的证据表明,记分员往往有更大的主队偏见时,观察男性相比,女性,较高的司相比,较低的司,较强的球队相比,较弱的球队。最后,我们提出了统计上显着的结果表明,裁判的决定是受出勤率的影响,与更大的人群导致更大的偏见,有利于主队。
英文摘要:
Box score statistics are the baseline measures of performance for National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) basketball. Between the 2011-2012 and 2015-2016 seasons, NCAA teams performed better at home compared to on the road in nearly all box score statistics across both genders and all three divisions. Using box score data from over 100,000 games spanning the three divisions for both women and men, we examine the factors underlying this discrepancy. The prevalence of neutral location games in the NCAA provides an additional angle through which to examine the gaps in box score statistic performance, which we believe has been underutilized in existing literature. We also estimate a regression model to quantify the home court advantages for box score statistics after controlling for other factors such as number of possessions, and team strength. Additionally, we examine the biases of scorekeepers and referees. We present evidence that scorekeepers tend to have greater home team biases when observing men compared to women, higher divisions compared to lower divisions, and stronger teams compared to weaker teams. Finally, we present statistically significant results indicating referee decisions are impacted by attendance, with larger crowds resulting in greater bias in favor of the home team.
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