在旋转的圆环上留下阴影。第一部分：测量候选轨迹遮蔽时间
Shadowing the rotating annulus. Part I: Measuring candidate trajectory shadowing times
摘要：
一个直观的必要要求的模型用于提供预测的系统的未来是存在的阴影轨迹是一致的，与过去的观察系统：给定一个系统模型对，模型轨迹存在合理地接近一个序列的观察系统？寻找这种轨迹的技术在低维系统中是很好理解的，但在高维天气和气候模式中的应用有很大的兴趣。我们基于Smith等人的工作[2010，Phys. Lett. A，374，2618-2623]，并开发了一种方法，用于测量的时间，个别的“候选”轨迹的高维模型阴影的观察，使用模型的热驱动旋转环在完美的模型方案。环模型的复杂性介于低维系统和全球大气模型之间。我们证明了我们的方法，通过测量阴影时间对人工产生的观察候选轨迹开始一个固定的距离，从真理的一个环的混沌流制度。我们使用我们的方法计算的候选阴影时间的分布密切对应于（1）轨迹与观测值在视觉上偏离的时间范围，以及（2）使用基于模型轨迹与观测值之间距离的简单度量的偏离时间。预期的候选人的阴影时间和初始距离从真理之间的经验关系证实，该方法的行为合理的参数是不同的。
英文摘要：
An intuitively necessary requirement of models used to provide forecasts of a system's future is the existence of shadowing trajectories that are consistent with past observations of the system: given a system-model pair, do model trajectories exist that stay reasonably close to a sequence of observations of the system? Techniques for finding such trajectories are well-understood in low-dimensional systems, but there is significant interest in their application to high-dimensional weather and climate models. We build on work by Smith et al. [2010, Phys. Lett. A, 374, 2618-2623] and develop a method for measuring the time that individual "candidate" trajectories of high-dimensional models shadow observations, using a model of the thermally-driven rotating annulus in the perfect model scenario. Models of the annulus are intermediate in complexity between low-dimensional systems and global atmospheric models. We demonstrate our method by measuring shadowing times against artificially-generated observations for candidate trajectories beginning a fixed distance from truth in one of the annulus' chaotic flow regimes. The distribution of candidate shadowing times we calculated using our method corresponds closely to (1) the range of times over which the trajectories visually diverge from the observations and (2) the divergence time using a simple metric based on the distance between model trajectory and observations. An empirical relationship between the expected candidate shadowing times and the initial distance from truth confirms that the method behaves reasonably as parameters are varied.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
