Chaotic Time Series Prediction using Spatio-Temporal RBF Neural Networks

Spatio-Temporal RBF Neural Networks

Herein, we propose a spatio-temporal extension of RBFNN for nonlinear system identification problem. The proposed algorithm employs the concept of time-space orthogonality and separately models the dynamics and nonlinear complexities of the system. The proposed RBF architecture is explored for the estimation of a highly nonlinear system and results are compared with the standard architecture for both the conventional and fractional gradient decent-based learning rules. The spatio-temporal RBF is shown to perform better than the standard and fractional RBFNNs by achieving fast convergence and s…

Combining Ensemble Kalman Filter and Reservoir Computing to predict spatio-temporal chaotic systems from imperfect observations and models

Prediction of spatio-temporal chaotic systems is important in various fields, such as Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP). While data assimilation methods have been applied in NWP, machine learning techniques, such as Reservoir Computing (RC), are recently recognized as promising tools to predict spatio-temporal chaotic systems. However, the sensitivity of the skill of the machine learning based prediction to the imperfectness of observations is unclear. In this study, we evaluate the skill of RC with noisy and sparsely distributed observations. We intensively compare the performances of RC and…

利用回声状态网络与迁移学习的吸引子学习用于时空混沌动力系统

Attractor learning for spatiotemporally chaotic dynamical systems using echo state networks with transfer learning

本文提出利用回声状态网络与迁移学习预测时空混沌偏微分方程的长期统计特性，提升预测准确性时间长度。

Combining Machine Learning with Knowledge-Based Modeling for Scalable Forecasting and Subgrid-Scale Closure of Large, Complex, Spatiotemporal Systems

We consider the commonly encountered situation (e.g., in weather forecasting) where the goal is to predict the time evolution of a large, spatiotemporally chaotic dynamical system when we have access to both time series data of previous system states and an imperfect model of the full system dynamics. Specifically, we attempt to utilize machine learning as the essential tool for integrating the use of past data into predictions. In order to facilitate scalability to the common scenario of interest where the spatiotemporally chaotic system is very large and complex, we propose combining two app…