Email messages have been an important mode of communication, not only for work, but also for social interactions and marketing. When messages have time sensitive information, it becomes relevant for the sender to know what is the expected time within which the email will be read by the recipient. In this paper we use a survival analysis framework to predict the time to open an email once it has been received. We use the Cox Proportional Hazards (CoxPH) model that offers a way to combine various features that might affect the event of opening an email. As an extension, we also apply a mixture model (MM) approach to CoxPH that distinguishes between recipients, based on a latent state of how prone to opening the messages each individual is. We compare our approach with standard classification and regression models. While the classification model provides predictions on the likelihood of an email being opened, the regression model provides prediction of the real-valued time to open. The use of survival analysis based methods allows us to jointly model both the open event as well as the time-to-open. We experimented on a large real-world dataset of marketing emails sent in a 3-month time duration. The mixture model achieves the best accuracy on our data where a high proportion of email messages go unopened.
This paper conducts an empirical investigation to evaluate transfer learning for classifying sales engagement emails arising from digital sales engagement platforms. Given the complexity of content and context of sales engagement, lack of standardized large corpora and benchmarks, limited labeled examples and heterogenous context of intent, this real-world use case poses both a challenge and an opportunity for adopting a transfer learning approach. We propose an evaluation framework to assess a high performance transfer learning (HPTL) approach in three key areas in addition to commonly used a…
Most recommendation engines today are based on predicting user engagement, e.g. predicting whether a user will click on an item or not. However, there is potentially a large gap between engagement signals and a desired notion of "value" that is worth optimizing for. We use the framework of measurement theory to (a) confront the designer with a normative question about what the designer values, (b) provide a general latent variable model approach that can be used to operationalize the target construct and directly optimize for it, and (c) guide the designer in evaluating and revising their oper…
New York University（纽约大学）；Adobe Research（Adobe研究院）；Nutanix（路坦力）；Adobe Systems（Adobe系统公司）
Email communications are ubiquitous. Firms control send times of emails and thereby the instants at which emails reach recipients (it is assumed email is received instantaneously from the send time). However, they do not control the duration it takes for recipients to open emails, labeled as time-to-open. Importantly, among emails that are opened, most occur within a short window from their send times. We posit that emails are likely to be opened sooner when send times are convenient for recipients, while for other send times, emails can get ignored. Thus, to compute appropriate send times it …
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；Carleton College（卡尔顿学院）
Conducting randomized experiments in education settings raises the question of how we can use machine learning techniques to improve educational interventions. Using Multi-Armed Bandits (MAB) algorithms like Thompson Sampling (TS) in adaptive experiments can increase students' chances of obtaining better outcomes by increasing the probability of assignment to the most optimal condition (arm), even before an intervention completes. This is an advantage over traditional A/B testing, which may allocate an equal number of students to both optimal and non-optimal conditions. The problem is the expl…
Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）
Diverse and accurate vision+language modeling is an important goal to retain creative freedom and maintain user engagement. However, adequately capturing the intricacies of diversity in language models is challenging. Recent works commonly resort to latent variable models augmented with more or less supervision from object detectors or part-of-speech tags. Common to all those methods is the fact that the latent variable either only initializes the sentence generation process or is identical across the steps of generation. Both methods offer no fine-grained control. To address this concern, we …
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Pandora Media, Inc.（潘多拉媒体公司）；Stanford（斯坦福大学）
An important metric of users' satisfaction and engagement within on-line streaming services is the user session length, i.e. the amount of time they spend on a service continuously without interruption. Being able to predict this value directly benefits the recommendation and ad pacing contexts in music and video streaming services. Recent research has shown that predicting the exact amount of time spent is highly nontrivial due to many external factors for which a user can end a session, and the lack of predictive covariates. Most of the other related literature on duration based user engagem…
Centre for Artificial Intelligence, University College London（伦敦大学学院人工智能中心）
In informational recommenders, many challenges arise from the need to handle the semantic and hierarchical structure between knowledge areas. This work aims to advance towards building a state-aware educational recommendation system that incorporates semantic relatedness between knowledge topics, propagating latent information across semantically related topics. We introduce a novel learner model that exploits this semantic relatedness between knowledge components in learning resources using the Wikipedia link graph, with the aim to better predict learner engagement and latent knowledge in a l…
Johns Hopkins University（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学）；Brown University（布朗大学）；University of Florida（佛罗里达大学）；Moi University（莫伊大学）
The multinomial probit Bayesian additive regression trees (MPBART) framework was proposed by Kindo et al. (KD), approximating the latent utilities in the multinomial probit (MNP) model with BART (Chipman et al. 2010). Compared to multinomial logistic models, MNP does not assume independent alternatives and the correlation structure among alternatives can be specified through multivariate Gaussian distributed latent utilities. We introduce two new algorithms for fitting the MPBART and show that the theoretical mixing rates of our proposals are equal or superior to the existing algorithm in KD. …
Comprehensive IT support teams in large scale organizations require more man power for handling engagement and requests of employees from different channels on a 24*7 basis. Automated email technical queries help desk is proposed to have instant real-time quick solutions and email categorisation. Email topic modelling with various machine learning, deep-learning approaches are compared with different features for a scalable, generalised solution along with sure-shot static rules. Email's title, body, attachment, OCR text, and some feature engineered custom features are given as input elements.…
Modeling Nonlinear Ability Trajectories and Learner Heterogeneity in Online Learning: A Bayesian Nonparametric Dynamic IRT Framework
Shenzhen University（深圳大学）；University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；University of Wisconsin-Madison（威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校）；Michigan State University（密歇根州立大学）
Independent component analysis is commonly applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data to extract independent components (ICs) representing functional brain networks. While ICA produces reliable group-level estimates, single-subject ICA often produces noisy results. Template ICA (tICA) is a hierarchical ICA model using empirical population priors to produce reliable subject-level IC estimates. However, this and other hierarchical ICA models assume unrealistically that subject effects are spatially independent. Here, we propose spatial template ICA (stICA), which incorporates s…
Fairness Begins with State: Purifying Latent Preferences for Hierarchical Reinforcement Learning in Interactive Recommendation
Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院重庆绿色智能技术研究所）；Chongqing School, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学重庆学院）；The First Affiliated Hospital, University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学第一附属医院）；City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学）
