自动化对中国两极分化的就业市场的影响
Automation Impacts on China's Polarized Job Market
摘要：
当面临自动化的威胁时，居住在中国大城市的工人可能不会像美国大城市的工人那样幸运，这取决于一个人居住的大城市的类型。实证研究发现，由于职业和技能专业化程度的提高，美国大城市对自动化的影响表现出了弹性。然而，在这项研究中，我们观察到中国大城市对自动化影响的两极分化反应。这种两极分化可能归因于中央政府精心制定的总体规划，通过这些规划，城市被分配了不同的工业目标，以实现全球最佳经济成功，从而实现快速增长的经济。通过将中国城市按照行政级别和中央政府分配的优质资源划分为两类，我们发现中国城市遵循两种截然不同的产业发展轨迹，一种是政府支持导致产业结构多样化，从而形成多元化的就业市场，另一种是专业化城市，从而形成专业化的就业市场。通过重新审视自动化对两极分化的就业市场的影响，我们观察到辛普森悖论，即多元化就业市场的大城市具有更大的弹性，而专业化就业市场的大城市更容易受到影响。这些发现为政策制定者提供了信息，以部署适当的政策来减轻两极分化的自动化影响。
英文摘要：
When facing threats from automation, a worker residing in a large Chinese city might not be as lucky as a worker in a large U.S. city, depending on the type of large city in which one resides. Empirical studies found that large U.S. cities exhibit resilience to automation impacts because of the increased occupational and skill specialization. However, in this study, we observe polarized responses in large Chinese cities to automation impacts. The polarization might be attributed to the elaborate master planning of the central government, through which cities are assigned with different industrial goals to achieve globally optimal economic success and, thus, a fast-growing economy. By dividing Chinese cities into two groups based on their administrative levels and premium resources allocated by the central government, we find that Chinese cities follow two distinct industrial development trajectories, one trajectory owning government support leads to a diversified industrial structure and, thus, a diversified job market, and the other leads to specialty cities and, thus, a specialized job market. By revisiting the automation impacts on a polarized job market, we observe a Simpson's paradox through which a larger city of a diversified job market results in greater resilience, whereas larger cities of specialized job markets are more susceptible. These findings inform policy makers to deploy appropriate policies to mitigate the polarized automation impacts.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
