近期，使用灵活的机器学习方法估计条件平均处理效应备受关注。然而在实践中，研究者通常对研究单元的预定义子组间的效应异质性存在工作假设，我们称之为分组方法。本文比较了估计分组处理效应的两种现代方法：非参数方法和半参数方法，旨在更好地指导实践。具体而言，我们比较了底层假设、效率及对底层数据生成模型的适应性，并提出结合两种方法的途径。我们还讨论了如何检验关于半参数估计量的关键假设，以及当同一子组内研究单元相关时如何获得聚类稳健标准误。我们通过模拟研究和重新分析 Early Childhood Longitudinal Study 来展示研究结果。
英文摘要：
Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the conditional average treatment effect using flexible machine learning methods. However, in practice, investigators often have working hypotheses about effect heterogeneity across pre-defined subgroups of study units, which we call the groupwise approach. The paper compares two modern ways to estimate groupwise treatment effects, a nonparametric approach and a semiparametric approach, with the goal of better informing practice. Specifically, we compare (a) the underlying assumptions, (b) efficiency and adaption to the underlying data generating models, and (c) a way to combine the two approaches. We also discuss how to test a key assumption concerning the semiparametric estimator and to obtain cluster-robust standard errors if study units in the same subgroups are correlated. We demonstrate our findings by conducting simulation studies and reanalyzing the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study.
Inferring the causal structure of a system typically requires interventional data, rather than just observational data. Since interventional experiments can be costly, it is preferable to select interventions that yield the maximum amount of information about a system. We propose a novel Bayesian method for optimal experimental design by sequentially selecting interventions that minimize the expected posterior entropy as rapidly as possible. A key feature is that the method can be implemented by computing simple summaries of the current posterior, avoiding the computationally burdensome task o…
Methods to identify cause-effect relationships currently mostly assume the variables to be scalar random variables. However, in many fields the objects of interest are vectors or groups of scalar variables. We present a new constraint-based non-parametric approach for inferring the causal relationship between two vector-valued random variables from observational data. Our method employs sparsity estimates of directed and undirected graphs and is based on two new principles for groupwise causal reasoning that we justify theoretically in Pearl's graphical model-based causality framework. Our the…
We address the problem of inferring the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome across space, using observational data. The data is possibly subject to unmeasured confounding variables which, in a standard approach, must be adjusted for by estimating a nuisance function. Here we develop a method that eliminates the nuisance function, while mitigating the resulting errors-in-variables. The result is a robust and accurate inference method for spatially varying heterogeneous causal effects. The properties of the method are demonstrated on synthetic as well as real data from Germany and the US.
Exploratory analysis of time series data can yield a better understanding of complex dynamical systems. Granger causality is a practical framework for analysing interactions in sequential data, applied in a wide range of domains. In this paper, we propose a novel framework for inferring multivariate Granger causality under nonlinear dynamics based on an extension of self-explaining neural networks. This framework is more interpretable than other neural-network-based techniques for inferring Granger causality, since in addition to relational inference, it also allows detecting signs of Granger-…
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Novartis International AG（诺华国际股份公司）
At the heart of causal structure learning from observational data lies a deceivingly simple question: given two statistically dependent random variables, which one has a causal effect on the other? This is impossible to answer using statistical dependence testing alone and requires that we make additional assumptions. We propose several fast and simple criteria for distinguishing cause and effect in pairs of discrete or continuous random variables. The intuition behind them is that predicting the effect variable using the cause variable should be `simpler' than the reverse -- different notions…
Causal inference has received great attention across different fields from economics, statistics, education, medicine, to machine learning. Within this area, inferring causal effects at individual level in observational studies has become an important task, especially in high dimensional settings. In this paper, we propose a framework for estimating Individualized Treatment Effects in high-dimensional non-experimental data. We provide both theoretical and empirical justifications, the latter by comparing our framework with current best-performing methods. Our proposed framework rivals the stat…
University of Waterloo（滑铁卢大学）；Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics（圆周理论物理研究所）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
The problem of using observed correlations to infer causal relations is relevant to a wide variety of scientific disciplines. Yet given correlations between just two classical variables, it is impossible to determine whether they arose from a causal influence of one on the other or a common cause influencing both, unless one can implement a randomized intervention. We here consider the problem of causal inference for quantum variables. We introduce causal tomography, which unifies and generalizes conventional quantum tomography schemes to provide a complete solution to the causal inference pro…
Instrumental variable methods are widely used for inferring the causal effect in the presence of unmeasured confounders. Existing instrumental variable methods for nonlinear outcome models require stringent identifiability conditions. This paper considers a flexible semi-parametric potential outcome model that allows for possibly invalid instruments. We propose new identifiability conditions to identify the causal parameters when the majority of the instrumental variables are valid. We devise a novel inference procedure for a new average structural function and the conditional average treatmen…
Graphical models are widely used to study biological networks. Interventions on network nodes are an important feature of many experimental designs for the study of biological networks. In this paper we put forward a causal variant of dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) for the purpose of modeling time-course data with interventions. The models inherit the simplicity and computational efficiency of DBNs but allow interventional data to be integrated into network inference. We show empirical results, on both simulated and experimental data, that demonstrate the need to appropriately handle interve…
In causal estimation problems, the parameter of interest is often only partially identified, implying that the parameter cannot be recovered exactly, even with infinite data. Here, we study Bayesian inference for partially identified treatment effects in multi-treatment causal inference problems with unobserved confounding. In principle, inferring the partially identified treatment effects is natural under the Bayesian paradigm, but the results can be highly sensitive to parameterization and prior specification, often in surprising ways. It is thus essential to understand which aspects of the …
It is common in the internet industry to use offline-developed algorithms to power online products that contribute to the success of a business. Offline-developed algorithms are guided by offline evaluation metrics, which are often different from online business key performance indicators (KPIs). To maximize business KPIs, it is important to pick a north star among all available offline evaluation metrics. By noting that online products can be measured by online evaluation metrics, the online counterparts of offline evaluation metrics, we decompose the problem into two parts. As the offline A/…
Causal effect estimation from observational data is one of the essential problems in causal inference. However, most estimation methods rely on the strong assumption that all confounders are observed, which is impractical and untestable in the real world. We develop a mediation analysis framework inferring the latent confounder for debiasing both direct and indirect causal effects. Specifically, we introduce generalized structural equation modeling that incorporates structured latent factors to improve the goodness-of-fit of the model to observed data, and deconfound the mediators and outcome …
Inferring causal effects of treatments is a central goal in many disciplines. The potential outcomes framework is a main statistical approach to causal inference, in which a causal effect is defined as a comparison of the potential outcomes of the same units under different treatment conditions. Because for each unit at most one of the potential outcomes is observed and the rest are missing, causal inference is inherently a missing data problem. Indeed, there is a close analogy in the terminology and the inferential framework between causal inference and missing data. Despite the intrinsic con…
Causal inference from observational data is an ambitious but highly relevant task, with diverse applications ranging from natural to social sciences. Within the scope of nonparametric time series, causal inference defined through interventions (cf. Pearl (2000)) is largely unexplored, although time order simplifies the problem substantially. We consider a marginal integration scheme for inferring causal effects from observational time series data, MINT-T (marginal integration in time series), which is an adaptation for time series of a method proposed by Ernest and Bühlmann (Electron. J. Stati…
Methods for inferring average causal effects have traditionally relied on two key assumptions: (i) the intervention received by one unit cannot causally influence the outcome of another; and (ii) units can be organized into non-overlapping groups such that outcomes of units in separate groups are independent. In this paper, we develop new statistical methods for causal inference based on a single realization of a network of connected units for which neither assumption (i) nor (ii) holds. The proposed approach allows both for arbitrary forms of interference, whereby the outcome of a unit may de…
Conventional methods in causal effect inferencetypically rely on specifying a valid set of control variables. When this set is unknown or misspecified, inferences will be erroneous. We propose a method for inferring average causal effects when all potential confounders are observed, but thecontrol variables are unknown. When the data-generating process belongs to the class of acyclical linear structural causal models, we prove that themethod yields asymptotically valid confidence intervals. Our results build upon a smooth characterization of linear directed acyclic graphs. We verify the capabi…
Causal discovery for purely observational, categorical data is a long-standing challenging problem. Unlike continuous data, the vast majority of existing methods for categorical data focus on inferring the Markov equivalence class only, which leaves the direction of some causal relationships undetermined. This paper proposes an identifiable ordinal causal discovery method that exploits the ordinal information contained in many real-world applications to uniquely identify the causal structure. The proposed method is applicable beyond ordinal data via data discretization. Through real-world and …
University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；TNO Intelligent Imaging（荷兰应用科学研究组织智能成像）；New York University（纽约大学）；CIMS（库朗数学科学研究所）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；CSAIL & IMES（计算机科学与人工智能实验室与医学工程与科学研究所）；University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；CIFAR（加拿大高等研究院）
Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal effects from observational data is the handling of confounders, factors that affect both an intervention and its outcome. A carefully designed observational study attempts to measure all important confounders. However, even if one does not have direct access to all confounders, there may exist noisy and uncertain measurement of proxies for confounders. We buil…
Max Planck Institute for Informatics（马克斯·普朗克信息学研究所）；Saarland University（萨尔大学）
We consider the problem of inferring the directed, causal graph from observational data, assuming no hidden confounders. We take an information theoretic approach, and make three main contributions. First, we show how through algorithmic information theory we can obtain SCI, a highly robust, effective and computationally efficient test for conditional independence---and show it outperforms the state of the art when applied in constraint-based inference methods such as stable PC. Second, building upon on SCI, we show how to tell apart the parents and children of a given node based on the algori…
Causal inference from observational data following the restricted structural causal model (SCM) framework hinges largely on the asymmetry between cause and effect from the data generating mechanisms, such as non-Gaussianity or nonlinearity. This methodology can be adapted to stationary time series, yet inferring causal relationships from nonstationary time series remains a challenging task. In this work, we propose a new class of restricted SCM, via a time-varying filter and stationary noise, and exploit the asymmetry from nonstationarity for causal identification in both bivariate and network…
Northeastern University（东北大学）；GE Global Research（通用电气全球研究中心）
Recent developments have linked causal inference with Algorithmic Information Theory, and methods have been developed that utilize Conditional Kolmogorov Complexity to determine causation between two random variables. We present a method for inferring causal direction between continuous variables by using an MDL Binning technique for data discretization and complexity calculation. Our method captures the shape of the data and uses it to determine which variable has more information about the other. Its high predictive performance and robustness is shown on several real world use cases.
Max Planck Institute for Informatics（马克斯·普朗克信息学研究所）；Saarland University（萨尔大学）
Given data over the joint distribution of two random variables $X$ and $Y$, we consider the problem of inferring the most likely causal direction between $X$ and $Y$. In particular, we consider the general case where both $X$ and $Y$ may be univariate or multivariate, and of the same or mixed data types. We take an information theoretic approach, based on Kolmogorov complexity, from which it follows that first describing the data over cause and then that of effect given cause is shorter than the reverse direction. The ideal score is not computable, but can be approximated through the Minimum D…
The additive genetic effect is arguably the most important quantity inferred in animal and plant breeding analyses. The term effect indicates that it represents causal information, which is different from standard statistical concepts as regression coefficient and association. The process of inferring causal information is also different from standard statistical learning, as the former requires causal (i.e. non-statistical) assumptions and involves extra complexities. Remarkably, the task of inferring genetic effects is largely seen as a standard regression/prediction problem, contradicting i…
National Institute of Advanced Studies（国家高级研究院）；Indian Institute of Science（印度科学学院）
Causal inference is one of the most fundamental problems across all domains of science. We address the problem of inferring a causal direction from two observed discrete symbolic sequences $X$ and $Y$. We present a framework which relies on lossless compressors for inferring context-free grammars (CFGs) from sequence pairs and quantifies the extent to which the grammar inferred from one sequence compresses the other sequence. We infer $X$ causes $Y$ if the grammar inferred from $X$ better compresses $Y$ than in the other direction. To put this notion to practice, we propose three models that u…
ETH Zürich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；IBM Research Zürich（苏黎世IBM研究院）
Inferring causal structures from experimentation is a central task in many domains. For example, in biology, recent advances allow us to obtain single-cell expression data under multiple interventions such as drugs or gene knockouts. However, the targets of the interventions are often uncertain or unknown and the number of observations limited. As a result, standard causal discovery methods can no longer be reliably used. To fill this gap, we propose a Bayesian framework (BaCaDI) for discovering and reasoning about the causal structure that underlies data generated under various unknown experi…
Centre d’Analyse et de Mathématique Sociales（社会分析与数学中心）；EHESS（高等社会科学研究院）；Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées（应用数学中心）；École Polytechnique（巴黎综合理工学院）；Inria XPOP（法国国家信息与自动化研究所XPOP团队）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
Inferring causal effects of a treatment, intervention or policy from observational data is central to many applications. However, state-of-the-art methods for causal inference seldom consider the possibility that covariates have missing values, which is ubiquitous in many real-world analyses. Missing data greatly complicate causal inference procedures as they require an adapted unconfoundedness hypothesis which can be difficult to justify in practice. We circumvent this issue by considering latent confounders whose distribution is learned through variational autoencoders adapted to missing val…
In this paper, we deal with the problem of inferring causal directions when the data is on discrete domain. By considering the distribution of the cause $P(X)$ and the conditional distribution mapping cause to effect $P(Y|X)$ as independent random variables, we propose to infer the causal direction via comparing the distance correlation between $P(X)$ and $P(Y|X)$ with the distance correlation between $P(Y)$ and $P(X|Y)$. We infer "$X$ causes $Y$" if the dependence coefficient between $P(X)$ and $P(Y|X)$ is smaller. Experiments are performed to show the performance of the proposed method.
While probabilistic models describe the dependence structure between observed variables, causal models go one step further: they predict, for example, how cognitive functions are affected by external interventions that perturb neuronal activity. In this review and perspective article, we introduce the concept of causality in the context of cognitive neuroscience and review existing methods for inferring causal relationships from data. Causal inference is an ambitious task that is particularly challenging in cognitive neuroscience. We discuss two difficulties in more detail: the scarcity of int…
University of Helsinki（赫尔辛基大学）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）
Much of scientific data is collected as randomized experiments intervening on some and observing other variables of interest. Quite often, a given phenomenon is investigated in several studies, and different sets of variables are involved in each study. In this article we consider the problem of integrating such knowledge, inferring as much as possible concerning the underlying causal structure with respect to the union of observed variables from such experimental or passive observational overlapping data sets. We do not assume acyclicity or joint causal sufficiency of the underlying data gene…
Causal inference deals with identifying which random variables "cause" or control other random variables. Recent advances on the topic of causal inference based on tools from statistical estimation and machine learning have resulted in practical algorithms for causal inference. Causal inference has the potential to have significant impact on medical research, prevention and control of diseases, and identifying factors that impact economic changes to name just a few. However, these promising applications for causal inference are often ones that involve sensitive or personal data of users that n…
The problem of inferring the direct causal parents of a response variable among a large set of explanatory variables is of high practical importance in many disciplines. Recent work exploits stability of regression coefficients or invariance properties of models across different experimental conditions for reconstructing the full causal graph. These approaches generally do not scale well with the number of the explanatory variables and are difficult to extend to nonlinear relationships. Contrary to existing work, we propose an approach which even works for observational data alone, while still…
Root causal analysis seeks to identify the set of initial perturbations that induce an unwanted outcome. In prior work, we defined sample-specific root causes of disease using exogenous error terms that predict a diagnosis in a structural equation model. We rigorously quantified predictivity using Shapley values. However, the associated algorithms for inferring root causes assume no latent confounding. We relax this assumption by permitting confounding among the predictors. We then introduce a corresponding procedure called Extract Errors with Latents (EEL) for recovering the error terms up to…
Inferring the causal structure that links n observables is usually based upon detecting statistical dependences and choosing simple graphs that make the joint measure Markovian. Here we argue why causal inference is also possible when only single observations are present. We develop a theory how to generate causal graphs explaining similarities between single objects. To this end, we replace the notion of conditional stochastic independence in the causal Markov condition with the vanishing of conditional algorithmic mutual information and describe the corresponding causal inference rules. We e…
Causal discovery from data affected by latent confounders is an important and difficult challenge. Causal functional model-based approaches have not been used to present variables whose relationships are affected by latent confounders, while some constraint-based methods can present them. This paper proposes a causal functional model-based method called repetitive causal discovery (RCD) to discover the causal structure of observed variables affected by latent confounders. RCD repeats inferring the causal directions between a small number of observed variables and determines whether the relatio…
Causal Mechanism Estimation in Multi-Sensor Systems Across Multiple Domains
Bosch Center for Artificial Intelligence（博世人工智能中心）；Institute of Industrial Manufacturing and Management IFF, University of Stuttgart（工业制造与管理研究所）；Fraunhofer Institute for Manufacturing Engineering and Automation IPA（弗劳恩霍夫制造工程与自动化研究所）
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；University of Helsinki（赫尔辛基大学）
We consider the problem of inferring causal relationships between two or more passively observed variables. While the problem of such causal discovery has been extensively studied especially in the bivariate setting, the majority of current methods assume a linear causal relationship, and the few methods which consider non-linear dependencies usually make the assumption of additive noise. Here, we propose a framework through which we can perform causal discovery in the presence of general non-linear relationships. The proposed method is based on recent progress in non-linear independent compon…
We provide a scheme for inferring causal relations from uncontrolled statistical data based on tools from computational algebraic geometry, in particular, the computation of Groebner bases. We focus on causal structures containing just two observed variables, each of which is binary. We consider the consequences of imposing different restrictions on the number and cardinality of latent variables and of assuming different functional dependences of the observed variables on the latent ones (in particular, the noise need not be additive). We provide an inductive scheme for classifying functional …
University of Hawaii at Manoa（马诺阿夏威夷大学）；University of California at Davis（加州大学戴维斯分校）；Santa Fe Institute（圣塔菲研究所）
We introduce an approach to inferring the causal architecture of stochastic dynamical systems that extends rate distortion theory to use causal shielding---a natural principle of learning. We study two distinct cases of causal inference: optimal causal filtering and optimal causal estimation. Filtering corresponds to the ideal case in which the probability distribution of measurement sequences is known, giving a principled method to approximate a system's causal structure at a desired level of representation. We show that, in the limit in which a model complexity constraint is relaxed, filteri…
Inferring causal directions on discrete and categorical data is an important yet challenging problem. Even though the additive noise models (ANMs) approach can be adapted to the discrete data, the functional structure assumptions make it not applicable on categorical data. Inspired by the principle that the cause and mechanism are independent, various methods have been developed, leveraging independence tests such as the distance correlation measure. In this work, we take an alternative perspective and propose a subsampling-based method to test the independence between the generating schemes o…
Inferring the abstract relational and causal structure of the world is a major challenge for reinforcement-learning (RL) agents. For humans, language--particularly in the form of explanations--plays a considerable role in overcoming this challenge. Here, we show that language can play a similar role for deep RL agents in complex environments. While agents typically struggle to acquire relational and causal knowledge, augmenting their experience by training them to predict language descriptions and explanations can overcome these limitations. We show that language can help agents learn challeng…
ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；MPI for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
Inferring causal structure poses a combinatorial search problem that typically involves evaluating structures with a score or independence test. The resulting search is costly, and designing suitable scores or tests that capture prior knowledge is difficult. In this work, we propose to amortize causal structure learning. Rather than searching over structures, we train a variational inference model to directly predict the causal structure from observational or interventional data. This allows our inference model to acquire domain-specific inductive biases for causal discovery solely from data g…
