用高斯过程回归模拟湿润气候下的日蒸发皿蒸发量
Modeling Daily Pan Evaporation in Humid Climates Using Gaussian Process Regression
摘要：
蒸发是水文循环中的主要过程之一，是农业、水文和气象研究中最关键的因素之一。由于蒸发量是一个复杂的非线性现象，受多种气候因子的影响，利用基于数据的方法可以对蒸发量进行精确估计，为此，采用高斯过程回归、最近邻法、随机森林和支持向量回归等方法对伊朗Golestan省的蒸发皿蒸发量进行了估计。为此目的，从2011年到2017年从Gonbad-e Kavus、Gorgan和Bandar Torkman站收集的气象数据，包括PE、温度、相对湿度、风速和日照时数。采用均方根误差、相关系数和平均绝对误差等统计指标对所研究方法的准确度进行了评价。此外，泰勒图用于评估所述模型的精度。我们报告说，GPR的Gonbad-e Kavus站的输入参数的T，W和S和GPR的Gorgan和Bandar Torkmen站的输入参数的T，RH，W，和S有最准确的性能，并提出了精确的估计PE。由于伊朗的蒸发率高，而且缺乏测量仪器，目前的研究结果表明，可以用几个容易精确测量的气象参数来估计PE值。
英文摘要：
Evaporation is one of the main processes in the hydrological cycle, and it is one of the most critical factors in agricultural, hydrological, and meteorological studies. Due to the interactions of multiple climatic factors, the evaporation is a complex and nonlinear phenomenon; therefore, the data-based methods can be used to have precise estimations of it. In this regard, in the present study, Gaussian Process Regression, Nearest-Neighbor, Random Forest and Support Vector Regression were used to estimate the pan evaporation in the meteorological stations of Golestan Province, Iran. For this purpose, meteorological data including PE, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and sunny hours collected from the Gonbad-e Kavus, Gorgan and Bandar Torkman stations from 2011 through 2017. The accuracy of the studied methods was determined using the statistical indices of Root Mean Squared Error, correlation coefficient and Mean Absolute Error. Furthermore, the Taylor charts utilized for evaluating the accuracy of the mentioned models. We report that GPR for Gonbad-e Kavus Station with input parameters of T, W and S and GPR for Gorgan and Bandar Torkmen stations with input parameters of T, RH, W, and S had the most accurate performances and proposed for precise estimation of PE. Due to the high rate of evaporation in Iran and the lack of measurement instruments, the findings of the current study indicated that the PE values might be estimated with few easily measured meteorological parameters accurately.
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