Consider an urn containing balls labeled with integer values. Define a discrete-time random process by drawing two balls, one at a time and with replacement, and noting the labels. Add a new ball labeled with the sum of the two drawn labels. This model was introduced by Siegmund and Yakir ({\it Ann. Probab. 33(5), 2005}) for labels taking values in a finite group, in which case the distribution defined by the urn converges to the uniform distribution on the group. For the urn of integers, the main result of this paper is an exponential limit law. The mean of the exponential is a random variable with distribution depending on the starting configuration. This is a novel urn model which combines multi-drawing and an infinite type of balls. The proof of convergence uses the contraction method for recursive distributional equations.
We study a new class of time inhomogeneous Pólya-type urn schemes and give optimal rates of convergence for the distribution of the properly scaled number of balls of a given color to nearly the full class of generalized gamma distributions with integer parameters, a class which includes the Rayleigh, half-normal and gamma distributions. Our main tool is Stein's method combined with characterizing the generalized gamma limiting distributions as fixed points of distributional transformations related to the equilibrium distributional transformation from renewal theory. We identify special cases …
We consider a version of the classical Pólya urn scheme which incorporates innovations. The space $S$ of colors is an arbitrary measurable set. After each sampling of a ball in the urn, one returns $C$ balls of the same color and additional balls of different colors given by some finite point process $ξ$ on $S$. When the number of steps goes to infinity, the empirical distribution of the colors in the urn converges to the normalized intensity measure of $ξ$, and we analyze the fluctuations. The ratio $ρ= E(C)/E(R)$ of the average number of copies to the average total number of balls returned p…
In classical urn models, one usually draws one ball with replacement at each time unit and then adds one ball of the same colour. Given a weight sequence $(w_k)_{k\in\N}$, the probability of drawing a ball of a certain colour is proportional to $w_k$ where $k$ is the number of balls of this colour. A classical result states that an urn fixates on one colour after a finite time if an only if $\sum_{0}^\infty w_k^{-1} < \infty$. In this paper we shall study the case when at each time unit we draw with replacement a number $d\in\N$ of balls and then add $d$ new balls of matching colours. The main…
This is a research endeavor in two parts. We study a class of balanced urn schemes on balls of two colours (say white and black). At each drawing, a sample of size $m\ge 1$ is drawn from the urn, and ball addition rules are applied. We consider these multiple drawings under sampling with or without replacement. We further classify ball addition matrices according to the structure of the expected value into affine and nonaffine classes. We give a necessary and sufficient condition for a scheme to be in the affine subclass. For the affine subclass, we get explicit results for the expected value …
This is the second part of a two-part investigation. We continue the study of a class of balanced urn schemes on balls of two colors (white and black). At each drawing, a sample of size $m\ge 1$ is drawn from the urn and ball addition rules are applied; the special case $m=1$ of sampling only a single ball coincides with ordinary balanced urn models. We consider these multiple drawings under sampling with or without replacement. For the class of affine conditional expected value, we study the number of white balls after $n$ steps. The affine class is parametrized by $Λ$, specified by the ratio…
We study the number of white balls in a classical Pólya urn model with the additional feature that, at random times, a black ball is added to the urn. The number of draws between these random times are i.i.d. and, under certain moment conditions on the inter-arrival distribution, we characterize the limiting distribution of the (properly scaled) number of white balls as the number of draws goes to infinity. The possible limiting distributions obtained in this way vary considerably depending on the inter-arrival distribution and are difficult to describe explicitly. However, we show that the li…
Pólya urns are urns where at each unit of time a ball is drawn and replaced with some other balls according to its colour. We introduce a more general model: the replacement rule depends on the colour of the drawn ball and the value of the time ($\operatorname{mod} p$). We extend the work of Flajolet et al. on Pólya urns: the generating function encoding the evolution of the urn is studied by methods of analytic combinatorics. We show that the initial partial differential equations lead to ordinary linear differential equations which are related to hypergeometric functions (giving the exact st…
An urn contains black and red balls. Let $Z_n$ be the proportion of black balls at time $n$ and $0\leq L<U\leq 1$ random barriers. At each time $n$, a ball $b_n$ is drawn. If $b_n$ is black and $Z_{n-1}<U$, then $b_n$ is replaced together with a random number $B_n$ of black balls. If $b_n$ is red and $Z_{n-1}>L$, then $b_n$ is replaced together with a random number $R_n$ of red balls. Otherwise, no additional balls are added, and $b_n$ alone is replaced. In this paper, we assume $R_n=B_n$. Then, under mild conditions, it is shown that $Z_n\overset{a.s.}\longrightarrow Z$ for some random variab…
We analyse a random walk on the ring of integers mod $n$, which at each time point can make an additive `step' or a multiplicative `jump'. When the probability of making a jump tends to zero as an appropriate power of $n$ we prove the existence of a total variation pre-cutoff for this walk. In addition, we show that the process obtained by subsampling our walk at jump times exhibits a true cutoff, with mixing time dependent on whether the step distribution has zero mean.
Given a sequence $X=(X_1,X_2,\ldots)$ of random observations, a Bayesian forecaster aims to predict $X_{n+1}$ based on $(X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ for each $n\ge 0$. To this end, in principle, she only needs to select a collection $σ=(σ_0,σ_1,\ldots)$, called ``strategy" in what follows, where $σ_0(\cdot)=P(X_1\in\cdot)$ is the marginal distribution of $X_1$ and $σ_n(\cdot)=P(X_{n+1}\in\cdot\mid X_1,\ldots,X_n)$ the $n$-th predictive distribution. Because of the Ionescu-Tulcea theorem, $σ$ can be assigned directly, without passing through the usual prior/posterior scheme. One main advantage is that no …
Since its inception in 1907, the Ehrenfest urn model (EUM) has served as a test bed of key concepts of statistical mechanics. Here we employ this model to study large deviations of a time-additive quantity. We consider two continuous-time versions of the EUM with $K$ urns and $N$ balls: without and with interactions between the balls in the same urn. We evaluate the probability distribution $\mathcal{P}_T(\bar{n}= a N)$ that the average number of balls in one urn over time $T$, $\bar{n}$, takes any specified value $aN$, where $0\leq a\leq 1$. For long observation time, $T\to \infty$, a Donsker…
For $s \in {\mathbb{C}}$ and $0 < a <1$, let $ζ(s,a)$ and ${\rm{Li}}_s (e^{2πia})$ be the Hurwitz and periodic zeta functions, repectively. For $0 < a \le 1/2$, put $Z(s,a) := ζ(s,a) + ζ(s,1-a)$, $P(s,a) := {\rm{Li}}_s (e^{2πia}) + {\rm{Li}}_s (e^{2πi(1-a)})$, $Y(s,a) := ζ(s,a) - ζ(s,1-a)$ and $O(s,a):= -i \bigl( {\rm{Li}}_s (e^{2πia}) - {\rm{Li}}_s (e^{2πi(1-a)}) \bigr)$. Let $n \ge 0$ be an integer and $b := r/q$, where $q>r>0$ are coprime integers. In this paper, we prove that the values $Z(-n,b)$, $π^{-2n-2} P(2n+2,b)$, $Y(-n,b)$ and $π^{-2n-1} O(2n+1,b)$ are rational numbers, in addition,…
This paper is concerned with the continuous-time quantum walk on Z, Z^d, and infinite homogeneous trees. By using the generating function method, we compute the limit of the average probability distribution for the general isotropic walk on Z, and for nearest-neighbor walks on Z^d and infinite homogeneous trees. In addition, we compute the asymptotic approximation for the probability of the return to zero at time t in all these cases.
