We propose estimation methods for change points in high-dimensional covariance structures with an emphasis on challenging scenarios with missing values. We advocate three imputation like methods and investigate their implications on common losses used for change point detection. We also discuss how model selection methods have to be adapted to the setting of incomplete data. The methods are compared in a simulation study and applied to a time series from an environmental monitoring system. An implementation of our proposals within the R-package hdcd is available via the Supplementary materials.
Harvard University（哈佛大学）；The University of Tokyo（东京大学）；RIKEN Center for Brain Science（理化学研究所脑科学中心）；Iowa State University（爱荷华州立大学）
Several statistical models are given in the form of unnormalized densities, and calculation of the normalization constant is intractable. We propose estimation methods for such unnormalized models with missing data. The key concept is to combine imputation techniques with estimators for unnormalized models including noise contrastive estimation and score matching. In addition, we derive asymptotic distributions of the proposed estimators and construct confidence intervals. Simulation results with truncated Gaussian graphical models and the application to real data of wind direction reveal that…
We develop an estimator for the change point parameter for a dynamically evolving graphical model, and also obtain its asymptotic distribution under high dimensional scaling. To procure the latter result, we establish that the proposed estimator exhibits an $O_p(ψ^{-2})$ rate of convergence, wherein $ψ$ represents the jump size between the graphical model parameters before and after the change point. Further, it retains sufficient adaptivity against plug-in estimates of the graphical model parameters. We characterize the forms of the asymptotic distribution under the both a vanishing and a non…
Institute for Mathematics and its Applications, University of Minnesota（明尼苏达大学数学及其应用研究所）；University of Florida（佛罗里达大学）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）
High dimensional piecewise stationary graphical models represent a versatile class for modelling time varying networks arising in diverse application areas, including biology, economics, and social sciences. There has been recent work in offline detection and estimation of regime changes in the topology of sparse graphical models. However, the online setting remains largely unexplored, despite its high relevance to applications in sensor networks and other engineering monitoring systems, as well as financial markets. To that end, this work introduces a novel scalable online algorithm for detec…
General Motors（通用汽车）；University of Florida（佛罗里达大学）
The problem of identifying change points in high-dimensional Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) in an online fashion is of interest, due to new applications in biology, economics and social sciences. The offline version of the problem, where all the data are a priori available, has led to a number of methods and associated algorithms involving regularized loss functions. However, for the online version, there is currently only a single work in the literature that develops a sequential testing procedure and also studies its asymptotic false alarm probability and power. The latter test is best sui…
Missing value imputation is crucial for real-world data science workflows. Imputation is harder in the online setting, as it requires the imputation method itself to be able to evolve over time. For practical applications, imputation algorithms should produce imputations that match the true data distribution, handle data of mixed types, including ordinal, boolean, and continuous variables, and scale to large datasets. In this work we develop a new online imputation algorithm for mixed data using the Gaussian copula. The online Gaussian copula model meets all the desiderata: its imputations mat…
Linkage maps are used to identify the location of genes responsible for traits and diseases. New sequencing techniques have created opportunities to substantially increase the density of genetic markers. Such revolutionary advances in technology have given rise to new challenges, such as creating high-density linkage maps. Current multiple testing approaches based on pairwise recombination fractions are underpowered in the high-dimensional setting and do not extend easily to polyploid species. We propose to construct linkage maps using graphical models either via a sparse Gaussian copula or a …
Recombinant Inbred Lines derived from divergent parental lines can display extensive segregation distortion and long-range linkage disequilibrium (LD) between distant loci. These genomic signatures are consistent with epistatic selection during inbreeding. Epistatic interactions affect growth and fertility traits or even cause complete lethality. Detecting epistasis is challenging as multiple testing approaches are under-powered and true long-range LD is difficult to distinguish from drift. Here we develop a method for reconstructing an underlying network of genomic signatures of high-dimensio…
Graphical model for factorization and completion of relatively high rank tensors by sparse sampling
D3 Center, Osaka University（大阪大学D3中心）；Department of Physics, Graduate School of Science, Osaka University（大阪大学理学研究生院物理学科）；Department of Systems Science, Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University（京都大学信息学研究生院系统科学学科）；RIKEN center for AIP（RIKEN AIP研究中心）
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University（弗吉尼亚理工大学）；Bradley Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering（布拉德利电气与计算机工程系）
Graphical models are widely used in scienti fic and engineering research to represent conditional independence structures between random variables. In many controlled experiments, environmental changes or external stimuli can often alter the conditional dependence between the random variables, and potentially produce significant structural changes in the corresponding graphical models. Therefore, it is of great importance to be able to detect such structural changes from data, so as to gain novel insights into where and how the structural changes take place and help the system adapt to the new…
Ant Group（蚂蚁集团）；Nanyang Technological University（南洋理工大学）；Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）
Estimating time-varying graphical models are of paramount importance in various social, financial, biological, and engineering systems, since the evolution of such networks can be utilized for example to spot trends, detect anomalies, predict vulnerability, and evaluate the impact of interventions. Existing methods require extensive tuning of parameters that control the graph sparsity and temporal smoothness. Furthermore, these methods are computationally burdensome with time complexity $O(NP^3)$ for $P$ variables and $N$ time points. As a remedy, we propose a low-complexity tuning-free Bayesi…
The time-evolving precision matrix of a piecewise-constant Gaussian graphical model encodes the dynamic conditional dependency structure of a multivariate time-series. Traditionally, graphical models are estimated under the assumption that data is drawn identically from a generating distribution. Introducing sparsity and sparse-difference inducing priors we relax these assumptions and propose a novel regularized M-estimator to jointly estimate both the graph and changepoint structure. The resulting estimator possesses the ability to therefore favor sparse dependency structures and/or smoothly …
Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；University of Melbourne（墨尔本大学）；Unisound AI Lab（优必选人工智能实验室）
This paper is concerned with data-driven unsupervised domain adaptation, where it is unknown in advance how the joint distribution changes across domains, i.e., what factors or modules of the data distribution remain invariant or change across domains. To develop an automated way of domain adaptation with multiple source domains, we propose to use a graphical model as a compact way to encode the change property of the joint distribution, which can be learned from data, and then view domain adaptation as a problem of Bayesian inference on the graphical models. Such a graphical model distinguish…
We propose a probabilistic formulation that enables sequential detection of multiple change points in a network setting. We present a class of sequential detection rules for certain functionals of change points (minimum among a subset), and prove their asymptotic optimality properties in terms of expected detection delay time. Drawing from graphical model formalism, the sequential detection rules can be implemented by a computationally efficient message-passing protocol which may scale up linearly in network size and in waiting time. The effectiveness of our inference algorithm is demonstrated…
We focus on the problem of estimating the change in the dependency structures of two $p$-dimensional Gaussian Graphical models (GGMs). Previous studies for sparse change estimation in GGMs involve expensive and difficult non-smooth optimization. We propose a novel method, DIFFEE for estimating DIFFerential networks via an Elementary Estimator under a high-dimensional situation. DIFFEE is solved through a faster and closed form solution that enables it to work in large-scale settings. We conduct a rigorous statistical analysis showing that surprisingly DIFFEE achieves the same asymptotic conver…
We consider the problem of change-point detection in multivariate time-series. The multivariate distribution of the observations is supposed to follow a graphical model, whose graph and parameters are affected by abrupt changes throughout time. We demonstrate that it is possible to perform exact Bayesian inference whenever one considers a simple class of undirected graphs called spanning trees as possible structures. We are then able to integrate on the graph and segmentation spaces at the same time by combining classical dynamic programming with algebraic results pertaining to spanning trees.…
This paper describes a novel approach to change-point detection when the observed high-dimensional data may have missing elements. The performance of classical methods for change-point detection typically scales poorly with the dimensionality of the data, so that a large number of observations are collected after the true change-point before it can be reliably detected. Furthermore, missing components in the observed data handicap conventional approaches. The proposed method addresses these challenges by modeling the dynamic distribution underlying the data as lying close to a time-varying low…
University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；University of California, Riverside（加州大学河滨分校）
Estimating conditional dependence graphs and precision matrices are some of the most common problems in modern statistics and machine learning. When data are fully observed, penalized maximum likelihood-type estimators have become standard tools for estimating graphical models under sparsity conditions. Extensions of these methods to more complex settings where data are contaminated with additive or multiplicative noise have been developed in recent years. In these settings, however, the relative performance of different methods is not well understood and algorithmic gaps still exist. In parti…
CiTIUS (Centro Singular de Investigación en Tecnoloxías Intelixentes), Universidade de Santiago de Compostela（圣地亚哥-德孔波斯特拉大学智能技术 singular 研究中心（CiTIUS））；Universidade de Santiago de Compostela（圣地亚哥-德孔波斯特拉大学）；Hospital Clínico Universitario de Santiago de Compostela（圣地亚哥-德孔波斯特拉大学临床医院）
AEGIS study possesses unique information on longitudinal changes in circulating glucose through continuous glucose monitoring technology (CGM). However, as usual in longitudinal medical studies, there is a significant amount of missing data in the outcome variables. For example, 40 percent of glycosylated hemoglobin (A1C) biomarker data are missing five years ahead. With the purpose to reduce the impact of this issue, this article proposes a new data analysis framework based on learning in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS) with missing responses that allows to capture non-linear relatio…
We investigate the relationship between the structure of a discrete graphical model and the support of the inverse of a generalized covariance matrix. We show that for certain graph structures, the support of the inverse covariance matrix of indicator variables on the vertices of a graph reflects the conditional independence structure of the graph. Our work extends results that have previously been established only in the context of multivariate Gaussian graphical models, thereby addressing an open question about the significance of the inverse covariance matrix of a non-Gaussian distribution.…
Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are probabilistic tools of choice for analyzing conditional dependencies between variables in complex systems. Finding changepoints in the structural evolution of a GGM is therefore essential to detecting anomalies in the underlying system modeled by the GGM. In order to detect structural anomalies in a GGM, we consider the problem of estimating changes in the precision matrix of the corresponding Gaussian distribution. We take a two-step approach to solving this problem:- (i) estimating a background precision matrix using system observations from the past with…
Properties of data are frequently seen to vary depending on the sampled situations, which usually changes along a time evolution or owing to environmental effects. One way to analyze such data is to find invariances, or representative features kept constant over changes. The aim of this paper is to identify one such feature, namely interactions or dependencies among variables that are common across multiple datasets collected under different conditions. To that end, we propose a common substructure learning (CSSL) framework based on a graphical Gaussian model. We further present a simple learn…
Université Paris-Est（巴黎东大学）；Ecole des Ponts（国立桥路学校）
The edge structure of the graph defining an undirected graphical model describes precisely the structure of dependence between the variables in the graph. In many applications, the dependence structure is unknown and it is desirable to learn it from data, often because it is a preliminary step to be able to ascertain causal effects. This problem, known as structure learning, is hard in general, but for Gaussian graphical models it is slightly easier because the structure of the graph is given by the sparsity pattern of the precision matrix of the joint distribution, and because independence co…
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；Cardiff University（卡迪夫大学）
Models leak information about their training data. This enables attackers to infer sensitive information about their training sets, notably determine if a data sample was part of the model's training set. The existing works empirically show the possibility of these membership inference (tracing) attacks against complex deep learning models. However, the attack results are dependent on the specific training data, can be obtained only after the tedious process of training the model and performing the attack, and are missing any measure of the confidence and unused potential power of the attack. …
This paper studies iteration convergence of Kronecker graphical lasso (KGLasso) algorithms for estimating the covariance of an i.i.d. Gaussian random sample under a sparse Kronecker-product covariance model and MSE convergence rates. The KGlasso model, originally called the transposable regularized covariance model by Allen ["Transposable regularized covariance models with an application to missing data imputation," Ann. Appl. Statist., vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 764-790, 2010], implements a pair of $\ell_1$ penalties on each Kronecker factor to enforce sparsity in the covariance estimator. The KGlass…
In this manuscript we consider the problem of jointly estimating multiple graphical models in high dimensions. We assume that the data are collected from n subjects, each of which consists of T possibly dependent observations. The graphical models of subjects vary, but are assumed to change smoothly corresponding to a measure of closeness between subjects. We propose a kernel based method for jointly estimating all graphical models. Theoretically, under a double asymptotic framework, where both (T,n) and the dimension d can increase, we provide the explicit rate of convergence in parameter est…
In data streams, the data distribution of arriving observations at different time points may change - a phenomenon called concept drift. While detecting concept drift is a relatively mature area of study, solutions to the uncertainty introduced by observations with missing values have only been studied in isolation. No one has yet explored whether or how these solutions might impact drift detection performance. We, however, believe that data imputation methods may actually increase uncertainty in the data rather than reducing it. We also conjecture that imputation can introduce bias into the p…
Federal University of Technology - Paraná (UTFPR)（联邦理工大学-巴拉那州（UTFPR））；The University of Adelaide（阿德莱德大学）；Aalborg University（奥尔堡大学）
The Bayesian Optimisation Algorithm (BOA) is an Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (EDA) that uses a Bayesian network as probabilistic graphical model (PGM). Determining the optimal Bayesian network structure given a solution sample is an NP-hard problem. This step should be completed at each iteration of BOA, resulting in a very time-consuming process. For this reason most implementations use greedy estimation algorithms such as K2. However, we show in this paper that significant changes in PGM structure do not occur so frequently, and can be particularly sparse at the end of evolution. A s…
