arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv周末暂无论文更新,休息一下吧,周末愉快~~
arXiv 1907.04816physics.ao-ph
收藏

一种数据驱动的降水精确预报方法

A Data-Driven Approach for Accurate Rainfall Prediction

Shilpa Manandhar, Soumyabrata Dev, Yee Hui Lee, Yu Song Meng, Stefan Winkler

摘要:

近年来,利用全球定位系统(GPS)信号延迟产生的可降水量(PWV)来预测降雨的兴趣越来越大。然而,降雨的发生取决于无数的大气参数。本文提出了一个系统的方法来分析影响大气降水的各种参数。不同的地面天气功能,如温度,相对湿度,露点,太阳辐射,PWV以及季节和昼夜变量进行了识别,并提出了详细的功能相关性研究。虽然所有的特征在降雨分类中起着重要的作用,但只有少数特征,如PWV,太阳辐射,季节和昼夜特征,在降雨预测中脱颖而出。基于这些发现,一组最佳的功能,用于数据驱动的机器学习算法的降雨预测。使用四年(2012-2015)数据库的实验评估显示,真实检测率为80.4%,误报率为20.3%,总体准确率为79.6%。与现有文献相比,我们的方法显着降低了误报率。

英文摘要:

In recent years, there has been growing interest in using Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) derived from Global Positioning System (GPS) signal delays to predict rainfall. However, the occurrence of rainfall is dependent on a myriad of atmospheric parameters. This paper proposes a systematic approach to analyze various parameters that affect precipitation in the atmosphere. Different ground-based weather features like Temperature, Relative Humidity, Dew Point, Solar Radiation, PWV along with Seasonal and Diurnal variables are identified, and a detailed feature correlation study is presented. While all features play a significant role in rainfall classification, only a few of them, such as PWV, Solar Radiation, Seasonal and Diurnal features, stand out for rainfall prediction. Based on these findings, an optimum set of features are used in a data-driven machine learning algorithm for rainfall prediction. The experimental evaluation using a four-year (2012-2015) database shows a true detection rate of 80.4%, a false alarm rate of 20.3%, and an overall accuracy of 79.6%. Compared to the existing literature, our method significantly reduces the false alarm rates.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

↑