arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 1907.03411stat.MLcs.LG
收藏

随机设计回归的无偏估计量

Unbiased estimators for random design regression

University of Michigan(密歇根大学);Google Inc.(谷歌公司);Columbia University(哥伦比亚大学)

Michał Dereziński, Manfred K. Warmuth, Daniel Hsu

摘要:

在线性回归中,我们希望基于小样本估计$d$维输入点和实值响应的分布的最佳线性最小二乘预测因子。在标准随机设计分析中,样本是i.i.d.根据输入分布,该样本的最小二乘解可以被视为最优值的自然估计。不幸的是,这种估计几乎总是会产生来自输入点的随机性的不期望的偏差,这是模型平均的一个重要瓶颈。在本文中,我们表明,这是可能的,以绘制一个非独立同分布。输入点的样本,无论响应模型如何,最小二乘解都是最优值的无偏估计量。此外,该样品可以通过增加先前绘制的i.i.d.带有一组额外的$d$点的样本,根据某个确定的点过程共同绘制,该过程从由点跨越的平方体积重新缩放的输入分布构建。受此启发,我们开发了一个理论框架,研究体积重新标度抽样,并在此过程中证明了一些新的矩阵期望恒等式。我们用它们来表明,对于任何输入分布和$ε>0$有一个随机设计组成的$O(d\log d+ d/ε)$点,从它可以构造一个无偏估计,其预期的平方损失在整个分布是有界的$1+ε$倍的最佳损失。我们提供了有效的算法,产生这样的无偏估计量在一些实际的设置,并支持我们的索赔实验。

英文摘要:

In linear regression we wish to estimate the optimum linear least squares predictor for a distribution over $d$-dimensional input points and real-valued responses, based on a small sample. Under standard random design analysis, where the sample is drawn i.i.d. from the input distribution, the least squares solution for that sample can be viewed as the natural estimator of the optimum. Unfortunately, this estimator almost always incurs an undesirable bias coming from the randomness of the input points, which is a significant bottleneck in model averaging. In this paper we show that it is possible to draw a non-i.i.d. sample of input points such that, regardless of the response model, the least squares solution is an unbiased estimator of the optimum. Moreover, this sample can be produced efficiently by augmenting a previously drawn i.i.d. sample with an additional set of $d$ points, drawn jointly according to a certain determinantal point process constructed from the input distribution rescaled by the squared volume spanned by the points. Motivated by this, we develop a theoretical framework for studying volume-rescaled sampling, and in the process prove a number of new matrix expectation identities. We use them to show that for any input distribution and $ε>0$ there is a random design consisting of $O(d\log d+ d/ε)$ points from which an unbiased estimator can be constructed whose expected square loss over the entire distribution is bounded by $1+ε$ times the loss of the optimum. We provide efficient algorithms for generating such unbiased estimators in a number of practical settings and support our claims experimentally.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

↑