This paper addresses the data-driven identification of latent dynamical representations of partially-observed systems, i.e., dynamical systems for which some components are never observed, with an emphasis on forecasting applications, including long-term asymptotic patterns. Whereas state-of-the-art data-driven approaches rely on delay embeddings and linear decompositions of the underlying operators, we introduce a framework based on the data-driven identification of an augmented state-space model using a neural-network-based representation. For a given training dataset, it amounts to jointly learn an ODE (Ordinary Differential Equation) representation in the latent space and reconstructing latent states. Through numerical experiments, we demonstrate the relevance of the proposed framework w.r.t. state-of-the-art approaches in terms of short-term forecasting performance and long-term behaviour. We further discuss how the proposed framework relates to Koopman operator theory and Takens' embedding theorem.
Relative Geometry of Neural Forecasters: Linking Accuracy and Alignment in Learned Latent Geometry
Max Planck Institute for Human Cognitive and Brain Sciences（马克斯·普朗克人类认知与脑科学研究所）；School of Embedded Composite Artificial Intelligence (SECAI)（嵌入式复合人工智能学院）；Leipzig University（莱比锡大学）；Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences（马克斯·普朗克数学研究院）
In this work we address the problem of approximating high-dimensional data with a low-dimensional representation. We make the following contributions. We propose an inverse regression method which exchanges the roles of input and response, such that the low-dimensional variable becomes the regressor, and which is tractable. We introduce a mixture of locally-linear probabilistic mapping model that starts with estimating the parameters of inverse regression, and follows with inferring closed-form solutions for the forward parameters of the high-dimensional regression problem of interest. Moreove…
We introduce a Bayesian Gaussian process latent variable model that explicitly captures spatial correlations in data using a parameterized spatial kernel and leveraging structure-exploiting algebra on the model covariance matrices for computational tractability. Inference is made tractable through a collapsed variational bound with similar computational complexity to that of the traditional Bayesian GP-LVM. Inference over partially-observed test cases is achieved by optimizing a "partially-collapsed" bound. Modeling high-dimensional time series systems is enabled through use of a dynamical GP …
Empirical observations suggest that in practice, community membership does not completely explain the dependency between the edges of an observation graph. The residual dependence of the graph edges are modeled in this paper, to first order, by auxiliary node latent variables that affect the statistics of the graph edges but carry no information about the communities of interest. We then study community detection in graphs obeying the stochastic block model and censored block model with auxiliary latent variables. We analyze the conditions for exact recovery when these auxiliary latent variabl…
Amortised inference enables scalable learning of sequential latent-variable models (LVMs) with the evidence lower bound (ELBO). In this setting, variational posteriors are often only partially conditioned. While the true posteriors depend, e.g., on the entire sequence of observations, approximate posteriors are only informed by past observations. This mimics the Bayesian filter -- a mixture of smoothing posteriors. Yet, we show that the ELBO objective forces partially-conditioned amortised posteriors to approximate products of smoothing posteriors instead. Consequently, the learned generative …
Bayesian nonparametric (BNP) models provide elegant methods for discovering underlying latent features within a data set, but inference in such models can be slow. We exploit the fact that completely random measures, which commonly used models like the Dirichlet process and the beta-Bernoulli process can be expressed as, are decomposable into independent sub-measures. We use this decomposition to partition the latent measure into a finite measure containing only instantiated components, and an infinite measure containing all other components. We then select different inference algorithms for t…
A Sparsity Principle for Partially Observable Causal Representation Learning
University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；Institute of Science and Technology Austria（奥地利科技学院）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；Samsung - SAIT AI Lab, Montreal（三星SAIT AI实验室（蒙特利尔））；Mila, Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学Mila研究所）；ServiceNow Research（ServiceNow研究院）；Seminar for Statistics, ETH Zürich（苏黎世联邦理工学院统计研究所）
University of Trento（特伦托大学）；Department of Information Engineering and Computer Science (DISI)（信息工程与计算机科学系（DISI））
In this work we consider partially observable environments with sparse rewards. We present a self-supervised representation learning method for image-based observations, which arranges embeddings respecting temporal distance of observations. This representation is empirically robust to stochasticity and suitable for novelty detection from the error of a predictive forward model. We consider episodic and life-long uncertainties to guide the exploration. We propose to estimate the missing information about the environment with the world model, which operates in the learned latent space. As a mot…
The identification of the governing equations of chaotic dynamical systems from data has recently emerged as a hot topic. While the seminal work by Brunton et al. reported proof-of-concepts for idealized observation setting for fully-observed systems, {\em i.e.} large signal-to-noise ratios and high-frequency sampling of all system variables, we here address the learning of data-driven representations of chaotic dynamics for partially-observed systems, including significant noise patterns and possibly lower and irregular sampling setting. Instead of considering training losses based on short-t…
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
Particle filtering is a popular method for inferring latent states in stochastic dynamical systems, whose theoretical properties have been well studied in machine learning and statistics communities. In many control problems, e.g., partially observed linear dynamical systems (POLDS), oftentimes the inferred latent state is further used for planning at each step. This paper initiates a rigorous study on the efficiency of particle filtering for sequential planning, and gives the first particle complexity bounds. Though errors in past actions may affect the future, we are able to bound the number…
Learning from heterogeneous data poses challenges such as combining data from various sources and of different types. Meanwhile, heterogeneous data are often associated with missingness in real-world applications due to heterogeneity and noise of input sources. In this work, we propose the variational selective autoencoder (VSAE), a general framework to learn representations from partially-observed heterogeneous data. VSAE learns the latent dependencies in heterogeneous data by modeling the joint distribution of observed data, unobserved data, and the imputation mask which represents how the d…
IIT Jodhpur（印度理工学院焦特布尔分校）；Flipkart Internet Pvt Ltd（Flipkart互联网私人有限公司）；IIT Delhi（印度理工学院德里分校）
Generative adversarial networks (GANs) have shown remarkable success in generation of data from natural data manifolds such as images. In several scenarios, it is desirable that generated data is well-clustered, especially when there is severe class imbalance. In this paper, we focus on the problem of clustering in generated space of GANs and uncover its relationship with the characteristics of the latent space. We derive from first principles, the necessary and sufficient conditions needed to achieve faithful clustering in the GAN framework: (i) presence of a multimodal latent space with adju…
Topic models, and more specifically the class of Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), are widely used for probabilistic modeling of text. MCMC sampling from the posterior distribution is typically performed using a collapsed Gibbs sampler. We propose a parallel sparse partially collapsed Gibbs sampler and compare its speed and efficiency to state-of-the-art samplers for topic models on five well-known text corpora of differing sizes and properties. In particular, we propose and compare two different strategies for sampling the parameter block with latent topic indicators. The experiments show th…
We study Reinforcement Learning for partially observable dynamical systems using function approximation. We propose a new \textit{Partially Observable Bilinear Actor-Critic framework}, that is general enough to include models such as observable tabular Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), observable Linear-Quadratic-Gaussian (LQG), Predictive State Representations (PSRs), as well as a newly introduced model Hilbert Space Embeddings of POMDPs and observable POMDPs with latent low-rank transition. Under this framework, we propose an actor-critic style algorithm that is capabl…
Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）；DeepMind（深度思维）；University of Alberta（阿尔伯塔大学）
Applications of Reinforcement Learning (RL), in which agents learn to make a sequence of decisions despite lacking complete information about the latent states of the controlled system, that is, they act under partial observability of the states, are ubiquitous. Partially observable RL can be notoriously difficult -- well-known information-theoretic results show that learning partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) requires an exponential number of samples in the worst case. Yet, this does not rule out the existence of large subclasses of POMDPs over which learning is tractable…
Latent features learned by deep learning approaches have proven to be a powerful tool for machine learning. They serve as a data abstraction that makes learning easier by capturing regularities in data explicitly. Their benefits motivated their adaptation to relational learning context. In our previous work, we introduce an approach that learns relational latent features by means of clustering instances and their relations. The major drawback of latent representations is that they are often black-box and difficult to interpret. This work addresses these issues and shows that (1) latent feature…
London School of Economics and Political Science（伦敦政治经济学院）；University of Minnesota（明尼苏达大学）
Matrix completion is a class of machine learning methods that concerns the prediction of missing entries in a partially observed matrix. This paper studies matrix completion for mixed data, i.e., data involving mixed types of variables (e.g., continuous, binary, ordinal). We formulate it as a low-rank matrix estimation problem under a general family of non-linear factor models and then propose entrywise consistent estimators for estimating the low-rank matrix. Tight probabilistic error bounds are derived for the proposed estimators. The proposed methods are evaluated by simulation studies and …
