1980-2000年秘鲁国内武装冲突死亡人数估计：现代多名单捕获-再捕获技术的应用
Estimating the Number of Fatal Victims of the Peruvian Internal Armed Conflict, 1980-2000: an application of modern multi-list Capture-Recapture techniques
摘要：
我们估计1980年至2000年之间的秘鲁内部武装冲突的致命受害者的数量，使用分层的七个列表的捕获-再捕获方法的基础上Dirichlet过程的混合物，我们扩展到容纳不完整的分层信息。我们使用来自六个来源的匹配数据，最初由秘鲁真相与和解委员会在2003年分析，以及一个新的大型数据集，最初由秘鲁政府在2006年发布。我们处理缺失的分层标签，开发一个通用的框架和估计方法的基础上MCMC抽样联合拟合通用贝叶斯捕获-再捕获模型和缺失的标签。通过由领域知识驱动的详细探索，建模和精炼，并采取特殊预防措施以避免对结果进行挑选，我们得出了保守的后验估计值58，234（CI 95%= [56，741，61，289]），以及更自由的估计值65，958（CI 95%= [61，462，75，387]）致命受害者。我们还确定，光辉道路游击队杀害的人比秘鲁武装部队更多。我们还探讨和讨论基于对数线性模型和多重插补的估计。最后，我们讨论了使用捕获-再捕获方法估计冲突中伤亡的几个经验教训。
英文摘要：
We estimate the number of fatal victims of the Peruvian internal armed conflict between 1980-2000 using stratified seven-list Capture-Recapture methods based on Dirichlet process mixtures, which we extend to accommodate incomplete stratification information. We use matched data from six sources, originally analyzed by the Peruvian Truth and Reconciliation Commission in 2003, together with a new large dataset, originally published in 2006 by the Peruvian government. We deal with missing stratification labels by developing a general framework and estimation methods based on MCMC sampling for jointly fitting generic Bayesian Capture-Recapture models and the missing labels. Through a detailed exploration driven by domain-knowledge, modeling and refining, with special precautions to avoid cherry-picking of results, we arrive to a conservative posterior estimate of 58,234 (CI95% = [56,741, 61,289]), and a more liberal estimate of 65,958 (CI95% = [61,462, 75,387]) fatal victims. We also determine that the Shining Path guerrillas killed more people than the Peruvian armed forces. We additionally explore and discuss estimates based on log-linear modeling and multiple-imputation. We finish by discussing several lessons learned about the use of Capture-Recapture methods for estimating casualties in conflicts.
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