We propose a novel algorithm for efficiently computing a sparse directed adjacency matrix from a group of time series following a causal graph process. Our solution is scalable for both dense and sparse graphs and automatically selects the LASSO coefficient to obtain an appropriate number of edges in the adjacency matrix. Current state-of-the-art approaches rely on sparse-matrix-computation libraries to scale, and either avoid automatic selection of the LASSO penalty coefficient or rely on the prediction mean squared error, which is not directly related to the correct number of edges. Instead, we propose a cyclical coordinate descent algorithm that employs two new non-parametric error metrics to automatically select the LASSO coefficient. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance of our algorithm on simulated stochastic block models and a real dataset of stocks from the S\&P$500$.
Learning Granger causality for general point processes is a very challenging task. In this paper, we propose an effective method, learning Granger causality, for a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. We reveal the relationship between Hawkes process's impact function and its Granger causality graph. Specifically, our model represents impact functions using a series of basis functions and recovers the Granger causality graph via group sparsity of the impact functions' coefficients. We propose an effective learning algorithm combining a maximum likelihood estimato…
We propose a new method of discovering causal relationships in temporal data based on the notion of causal compression. To this end, we adopt the Pearlian graph setting and the directed information as an information theoretic tool for quantifying causality. We introduce chain rule for directed information and use it to motivate causal sparsity. We show two applications of the proposed method: causal time series segmentation which selects time points capturing the incoming and outgoing causal flow between time points belonging to different signals, and causal bipartite graph recovery. We prove …
Time Series Domain Adaptation via Latent Invariant Causal Mechanism
School of Computer Science, Guangdong University of Technology（广东工业大学计算机学院）；Peng Cheng Laboratory（鹏城实验室）；School of Computing, Guangdong University of Technology（广东工业大学计算机学院）；Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence（穆罕默德·本·扎耶德人工智能大学）；Institute for Infocomm Research, A*STAR（新加坡科技研究局信息通信研究所）；Centre for Frontier AI Research, A*STAR（新加坡科技研究局前沿人工智能研究中心）；Department of Computer Science and Technology, Tsinghua University（清华大学计算机科学与技术系）
On the Identification of Temporally Causal Representation with Instantaneous Dependence
Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence（穆罕默德·本·扎耶德人工智能大学）；Guangdong University of Technology（广东技术大学）；The University of Melbourne（墨尔本大学）
A Sparsity Principle for Partially Observable Causal Representation Learning
University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；Institute of Science and Technology Austria（奥地利科技学院）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；Samsung - SAIT AI Lab, Montreal（三星SAIT AI实验室（蒙特利尔））；Mila, Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学Mila研究所）；ServiceNow Research（ServiceNow研究院）；Seminar for Statistics, ETH Zürich（苏黎世联邦理工学院统计研究所）
Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are applied in a wide range of usecases. There is an increased demand for deploying DNNs on devices that do not have abundant resources such as memory and computation units. Recently, network compression through a variety of techniques such as pruning and quantization have been proposed to reduce the resource requirement. A key parameter that all existing compression techniques are sensitive to is the compression ratio (e.g., pruning sparsity, quantization bitwidth) of each layer. Traditional solutions treat the compression ratios of each layer as hyper-parameters, …
This paper develops a sparsity-inducing version of Bayesian Causal Forests, a recently proposed nonparametric causal regression model that employs Bayesian Additive Regression Trees and is specifically designed to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects using observational data. The sparsity-inducing component we introduce is motivated by empirical studies where not all the available covariates are relevant, leading to different degrees of sparsity underlying the surfaces of interest in the estimation of individual treatment effects. The extended version presented in this work, which we name …
In the classic sparsity-driven problems, the fundamental L-1 penalty method has been shown to have good performance in reconstructing signals for a wide range of problems. However this performance relies on a good choice of penalty weight which is often found from empirical experiments. We propose an algorithm called the Laplacian variational automatic relevance determination (Lap-VARD) that takes this penalty weight as a parameter of a prior Laplace distribution. Optimization of this parameter using an automatic relevance determination framework results in a balance between the sparsity and a…
Sparsity priors are commonly used in denoising and image reconstruction. For analysis-type priors, a dictionary defines a representation of signals that is likely to be sparse. In most situations, this dictionary is not known, and is to be recovered from pairs of ground-truth signals and measurements, by minimizing the reconstruction error. This defines a hierarchical optimization problem, which can be cast as a bi-level optimization. Yet, this problem is unsolvable, as reconstructions and their derivative wrt the dictionary have no closed-form expression. However, reconstructions can be itera…
Mila（米拉人工智能研究所）；DIRO, Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学计算机科学与运筹学系）
Disentanglement via mechanism sparsity was introduced recently as a principled approach to extract latent factors without supervision when the causal graph relating them in time is sparse, and/or when actions are observed and affect them sparsely. However, this theory applies only to ground-truth graphs satisfying a specific criterion. In this work, we introduce a generalization of this theory which applies to any ground-truth graph and specifies qualitatively how disentangled the learned representation is expected to be, via a new equivalence relation over models we call consistency. This equ…
Our goal is to estimate causal interactions in multivariate time series. Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models, these can be defined based on non-vanishing coefficients belonging to respective time-lagged instances. As in most cases a parsimonious causality structure is assumed, a promising approach to causal discovery consists in fitting VAR models with an additional sparsity-promoting regularization. Along this line we here propose that sparsity should be enforced for the subgroups of coefficients that belong to each pair of time series, as the absence of a causal relation requires the co…
Zhejiang University（浙江大学）；The University of Hong Kong（香港大学）；Tongji University（同济大学）；Shenzhen Research Institute of Big Data（深圳大数据研究院）；National and Kapodistrian University of Athens（雅典国立卡波迪斯特里安大学）；Aalborg University（奥尔堡大学）
Tensor rank learning for canonical polyadic decomposition (CPD) has long been deemed as an essential yet challenging problem. In particular, since the tensor rank controls the complexity of the CPD model, its inaccurate learning would cause overfitting to noise or underfitting to the signal sources, and even destroy the interpretability of model parameters. However, the optimal determination of a tensor rank is known to be a non-deterministic polynomial-time hard (NP-hard) task. Rather than exhaustively searching for the best tensor rank via trial-and-error experiments, Bayesian inference unde…
Learning the structure of Bayesian networks and causal relationships from observations is a common goal in several areas of science and technology. We show that the prequential minimum description length principle (MDL) can be used to derive a practical scoring function for Bayesian networks when flexible and overparametrized neural networks are used to model the conditional probability distributions between observed variables. MDL represents an embodiment of Occam's Razor and we obtain plausible and parsimonious graph structures without relying on sparsity inducing priors or other regularizer…
Mila（米拉研究所）；Polytechnique Montréal（蒙特利尔综合理工学院）；Deepmind（深度思维）；Element AI（Element AI公司）；Google AI（谷歌人工智能）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）
Inducing causal relationships from observations is a classic problem in machine learning. Most work in causality starts from the premise that the causal variables themselves are observed. However, for AI agents such as robots trying to make sense of their environment, the only observables are low-level variables like pixels in images. To generalize well, an agent must induce high-level variables, particularly those which are causal or are affected by causal variables. A central goal for AI and causality is thus the joint discovery of abstract representations and causal structure. However, we n…
A new causal discovery method, Structural Agnostic Modeling (SAM), is presented in this paper. Leveraging both conditional independencies and distributional asymmetries, SAM aims to find the underlying causal structure from observational data. The approach is based on a game between different players estimating each variable distribution conditionally to the others as a neural net, and an adversary aimed at discriminating the generated data against the original data. A learning criterion combining distribution estimation, sparsity and acyclicity constraints is used to enforce the optimization …
IBM Research（IBM研究院）；University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）
We consider the minimum cost intervention design problem: Given the essential graph of a causal graph and a cost to intervene on a variable, identify the set of interventions with minimum total cost that can learn any causal graph with the given essential graph. We first show that this problem is NP-hard. We then prove that we can achieve a constant factor approximation to this problem with a greedy algorithm. We then constrain the sparsity of each intervention. We develop an algorithm that returns an intervention design that is nearly optimal in terms of size for sparse graphs with sparse int…
University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；The Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）；University of Warwick（华威大学）
We study the problem of globally optimizing the causal effect on a target variable of an unknown causal graph in which interventions can be performed. This problem arises in many areas of science including biology, operations research and healthcare. We propose Causal Entropy Optimization (CEO), a framework that generalizes Causal Bayesian Optimization (CBO) to account for all sources of uncertainty, including the one arising from the causal graph structure. CEO incorporates the causal structure uncertainty both in the surrogate models for the causal effects and in the mechanism used to select…
Our goal is to recover time-delayed latent causal variables and identify their relations from measured temporal data. Estimating causally-related latent variables from observations is particularly challenging as the latent variables are not uniquely recoverable in the most general case. In this work, we consider both a nonparametric, nonstationary setting and a parametric setting for the latent processes and propose two provable conditions under which temporally causal latent processes can be identified from their nonlinear mixtures. We propose LEAP, a theoretically-grounded framework that ext…
Amazon.com, Inc.（亚马逊公司）；Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院）
We study the problem of observational causal inference with continuous treatments in the framework of inverse propensity-score weighting. To obtain stable weights, we design a new algorithm based on entropy balancing that learns weights to directly maximize causal inference accuracy using end-to-end optimization. In the process of optimization, these weights are automatically tuned to the specific dataset and causal inference algorithm being used. We provide a theoretical analysis demonstrating consistency of our approach. Using synthetic and real-world data, we show that our algorithm estimat…
Obtaining a non-parametric expression for an interventional distribution is one of the most fundamental tasks in causal inference. Such an expression can be obtained for an identifiable causal effect by an algorithm or by manual application of do-calculus. Often we are left with a complicated expression which can lead to biased or inefficient estimates when missing data or measurement errors are involved. We present an automatic simplification algorithm that seeks to eliminate symbolically unnecessary variables from these expressions by taking advantage of the structure of the underlying graph…
Universidad Autónoma de Madrid（马德里自治大学）；KU Leuven（鲁汶大学）
This work proposes a new algorithm for training a re-weighted L2 Support Vector Machine (SVM), inspired on the re-weighted Lasso algorithm of Candès et al. and on the equivalence between Lasso and SVM shown recently by Jaggi. In particular, the margin required for each training vector is set independently, defining a new weighted SVM model. These weights are selected to be binary, and they are automatically adapted during the training of the model, resulting in a variation of the Frank-Wolfe optimization algorithm with essentially the same computational complexity as the original algorithm. As…
University of Hamburg（汉堡大学）；Hamburg Business School（汉堡商学院）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
Graphical models have become a very popular tool for representing dependencies within a large set of variables and are key for representing causal structures. We provide results for uniform inference on high-dimensional graphical models with the number of target parameters $d$ being possible much larger than sample size. This is in particular important when certain features or structures of a causal model should be recovered. Our results highlight how in high-dimensional settings graphical models can be estimated and recovered with modern machine learning methods in complex data sets. To const…
University of Electronic Science and Technology of China（电子科技大学）；China Academy of Engineering Physics（中国工程物理研究院）
In this paper, we consider the block-sparse signals recovery problem in the context of multiple measurement vectors (MMV) with common row sparsity patterns. We develop a new method for recovery of common row sparsity MMV signals, where a pattern-coupled hierarchical Gaussian prior model is introduced to characterize both the block-sparsity of the coefficients and the statistical dependency between neighboring coefficients of the common row sparsity MMV signals. Unlike many other methods, the proposed method is able to automatically capture the block sparse structure of the unknown signal. Our …
