在金融市场中向他人学习
Learning from Others in the Financial Market
摘要：
金融中的预测问题不仅仅是估计模型的未知参数（例如预期收益率）。这是因为这样一个模型必须包括一些参数，这些参数决定了市场参与者改变其对该模型有效性的看法的倾向。这导致了一个众所周知的金融市场的循环情况，参与者集体创造他们希望估计的未来。在本文中，我们介绍了一个组织多个预期模型的框架，并研究了它们被大多数市场参与者采用的条件。
英文摘要：
Prediction problems in finance go beyond estimating the unknown parameters of a model (e.g. of expected returns). This is because such a model would have to include parameters governing the market participants' propensity to change their opinions on the validity of that model. This leads to a well--known circular situation characteristic of financial markets, where participants collectively create the future they wish to estimate. In this paper, we introduce a framework for organizing multiple expectation models and study the conditions under which they are adopted by a majority of market participants.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
