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arXiv 1904.04765cs.ITcs.LGeess.SPmath.ITmath.STstat.MLstat.TH
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时间序列分析中估计和预测误差的一般方差界:熵的观点

Generic Variance Bounds on Estimation and Prediction Errors in Time Series Analysis: An Entropy Perspective

KTH Royal Institute of Technology(瑞典皇家理工学院);Tokyo Institute of Technology(东京工业大学);New York University(纽约大学)

Song Fang, Mikael Skoglund, Karl Henrik Johansson, Hideaki Ishii, Quanyan Zhu

摘要:

在本文中,我们通过信息论的方法,得到了时间序列分析中的估计和预测误差的方差的一般界。通常可以看出,误差界限由给定边信息或过去观测的待估计或预测的数据点的条件熵确定。此外,我们发现,为了达到渐近的预测误差界,必要和充分条件是“新息”是渐近白高斯。当仅限于高斯过程和一步预测时,我们的界被证明可以简化为线性预测理论中的Kolmogorov-Szegö公式和Wiener-Masani公式。

英文摘要:

In this paper, we obtain generic bounds on the variances of estimation and prediction errors in time series analysis via an information-theoretic approach. It is seen in general that the error bounds are determined by the conditional entropy of the data point to be estimated or predicted given the side information or past observations. Additionally, we discover that in order to achieve the prediction error bounds asymptotically, the necessary and sufficient condition is that the "innovation" is asymptotically white Gaussian. When restricted to Gaussian processes and 1-step prediction, our bounds are shown to reduce to the Kolmogorov-Szegö formula and Wiener-Masani formula known from linear prediction theory.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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