Multivariate Hierarchical Frameworks for Modelling Delayed Reporting in Count Data

Addressing delayed case reporting in infectious disease forecast modeling

Infectious disease forecasting is of great interest to the public health community and policymakers, since forecasts can provide insight into disease dynamics in the near future and inform interventions. Due to delays in case reporting, however, forecasting models may often underestimate the current and future disease burden. In this paper, we propose a general framework for addressing reporting delay in disease forecasting efforts with the goal of improving forecasts. We propose strategies for leveraging either historical data on case reporting or external internet-based data to estimate the …

A Powerful Modelling Framework for Nowcasting and Forecasting COVID-19 and Other Diseases

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted delayed reporting as a significant impediment to effective disease surveillance and decision-making. In the absence of timely data, statistical models which account for delays can be adopted to nowcast and forecast cases or deaths. We discuss the four key sources of systematic and random variability in available data for COVID-19 and other diseases, and critically evaluate current state-of-the-art methods with respect to appropriately separating and capturing this variability. We present a general spatio-temporal hierarchical framework for correcting delay…

bayprior：结构化贝叶斯先验引出、冲突诊断与监管报告

bayprior: Structured Bayesian Prior Elicitation, Conflict Diagnostics, and Regulatory Reporting

bayprior是一个R包和Shiny应用，整合贝叶斯先验引出、冲突诊断、敏感性分析和监管报告，支持FDA和EMA指南，并通过合成肿瘤学试验验证。

Intelligent Surveillance of World Health Organization (WHO) Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) Data in Cameroon Using Multivariate Cross-Correlation

As developing countries continue to face challenges associated with infectious diseases, the need to improve infrastructure to systematically collect data which can be used to understand their outbreak patterns becomes more critical. The World Health Organization (WHO) Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) strategy seeks to drive the systematic collection of surveillance data to strengthen district-level reporting and to translate them into public health actions. Since the analysis of this surveillance data at the central levels of government in many developing nations has tradit…

Learning delay dynamics for multivariate stochastic processes, with application to the prediction of the growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the United States

Delay differential equations form the underpinning of many complex dynamical systems. The forward problem of solving random differential equations with delay has received increasing attention in recent years. Motivated by the challenge to predict the COVID-19 caseload trajectories for individual states in the U.S., we target here the inverse problem. Given a sample of observed random trajectories obeying an unknown random differential equation model with delay, we use a functional data analysis framework to learn the model parameters that govern the underlying dynamics from the data. We show e…

Estimating SARS-CoV-2 Infections from Deaths, Confirmed Cases, Tests, and Random Surveys

There are many sources of data giving information about the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the population, but all have major drawbacks, including biases and delayed reporting. For example, the number of confirmed cases largely underestimates the number of infections, deaths lag infections substantially, while test positivity rates tend to greatly overestimate prevalence. Representative random prevalence surveys, the only putatively unbiased source, are sparse in time and space, and the results come with a big delay. Reliable estimates of population prevalence are necessary for understandi…