Brexit情景对UK食品价格的预期影响以及对贫困和健康政策的影响：结构化专家判断方法
Anticipated impacts of Brexit scenarios on UK food prices and implications for policies on poverty and health: a structured expert judgement approach
摘要：
粮食无保障与几种健康状况的风险增加和慢性病管理不善有关。家庭粮食不安全的主要决定因素是收入和粮食费用。虽然短期家庭收入可能保持不变，但粮食价格上涨将是粮食不安全的一个重要驱动因素。调查英国家庭粮食安全的食品价格驱动因素及其在英国脱欧交易和无交易情景下的健康后果。估计预测价格分布的5%和95%分位数。结构化专家判断启发，一种利用专家量化不确定性的成熟方法。2018年7月，每位专家估计了英国脱欧协议和无协议脱欧至2020年6月的十种食品类别价格变化的中位数、5%和95%分位数，假设英国脱欧于2019年3月29日发生。这些数据是根据专家对校准问题的准确性和信息量进行汇总的。10名粮食采购、零售、农业、经济、统计和家庭粮食安全专家。结果如下：当结合用于计算消费者价格指数食品篮子成本的比例时，英国脱欧的食品价格变化中位数预计为+6.1\% [90\%可信区间：-3\%，+17\%]，无交易+22.5\% [+1\%，+52\%]。经历粮食不安全的家庭数量及其严重程度可能会增加，因为预计英国脱欧后食品价格中值将大幅上涨。较高的增长率比较低的增长率更有可能接近上限，这将带来严重的影响。研究表明，粮食预算低导致饮食越来越差，这表明，由于粮食不安全对饮食敏感疾病的发生和管理产生影响，短期和长期对保健服务的需求可能会增加。
英文摘要：
Food insecurity is associated with increased risk for several health conditions and with poor chronic disease management. Key determinants for household food insecurity are income and food costs. Whereas short-term household incomes are likely to remain static, increased food prices would be a significant driver of food insecurity. To investigate food price drivers for household food security and its health consequences in the UK under scenarios of Deal and No deal for Brexit . To estimate the 5\% and 95\% quantiles of the projected price distributions. Structured expert judgement elicitation, a well-established method for quantifying uncertainty, using experts. In July 2018, each expert estimated the median, 5\% and 95\% quantiles of changes in price for ten food categories under Brexit Deal and No-deal to June 2020 assuming Brexit had taken place on 29th March 2019. These were aggregated based on the accuracy and informativeness of the experts on calibration questions. Ten specialists in food procurement, retail, agriculture, economics, statistics and household food security. Results: when combined in proportions used to calculate Consumer Prices Index food basket costs, median food price change for Brexit with a Deal is expected to be +6.1\% [90\% credible interval:-3\%, +17\%] and with No deal +22.5\% [+1\%, +52\%]. The number of households experiencing food insecurity and its severity are likely to increase because of expected sizeable increases in median food prices after Brexit. Higher increases are more likely than lower rises and towards the upper limits, these would entail severe impacts. Research showing a low food budget leads to increasingly poor diet suggests that demand for health services in both the short and longer term is likely to increase due to the effects of food insecurity on the incidence and management of diet-sensitive conditions.
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