阿拉伯世界不断变化的地缘政治：2017年海湾危机对商业的影响
The Changing Geopolitics in the Arab World: Implications of the 2017 Gulf Crisis for Business
摘要：
2017年6月5日，沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国、巴林和埃及与卡塔尔断绝外交关系，指责卡塔尔破坏该地区的稳定。在这场外交裂痕一年多之后，有几个问题仍然没有得到解决。这项研究的重点是对卡塔尔长达一年的封锁造成的区域商业成本。我们将样本分开，比较卡塔尔及其中东邻国在沙特领导的卡塔尔抵制之前和之后的股票市场表现。我们的注意力集中在股票市场收益和风险的条件波动过程与金融的相互联系。我们表明，海湾危机对卡塔尔以及沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的影响最不利。巴林和埃及也受到了有害影响，但程度不如这三个国家。但对波动过程的冲击往往会产生短期影响。此外，总的波动性溢出和其他增加，但温和的封锁后。总体而言，四方的游说努力没有取得预期结果。我们的研究结果强调了卡塔尔的经济脆弱性，但也强调了这个小国成功的弹性战略。卡塔尔协调一致的外交努力得以对抗经济和政治封锁。
英文摘要：
The international community was caught by surprise on 5 June 2017 when Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Egypt severed diplomatic ties with Qatar, accusing it of destabilizing the region. More than one year after this diplomatic rift, several questions remain unaddressed. This study focuses on the regional business costs of the year-long blockade on Qatar. We split the sample to compare the stock market performances of Qatar and its Middle Eastern neighbors before and after the Saudi-led Qatar boycott. We focus our attention on the conditional volatility process of stock market returns and risks related to financial interconnectedness. We show that the Gulf crisis had the most adverse impact on Qatar together with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Although not to the same degree as these three countries, Bahrain and Egypt were also harmfully affected. But shocks to the volatility process tend to have short-lasting effects. Moreover, the total volatility spillovers to and from others increase but moderately after the blockade. Overall, the quartet lobbying efforts did not achieve the intended result. Our findings underscore Qatar's economic vulnerability but also the successful resilience strategy of this tiny state. The coordinated diplomatic efforts of Qatar have been able to fight the economic and political embargo.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
