揭示时间关系的地震统计破坏机理分析
Statistical Failure Mechanism Analysis of Earthquakes Revealing Time Relationships
摘要：
如果我们假设地震是混沌的，并且受到局部影响，那么混沌理论表明，局部地区的地震之间应该存在时间关联，这种关联应该通过统计检验来揭示。到目前为止，还没有显示出强有力的关系（参考文献不是预测）。然而，地震基本上是结构材料系统的故障，并且当存在多种故障机制时，如果不首先分离机制，则故障的预测受到强烈抑制。在这里，我们表明，通过统计分离地震，根据其中心张量矩结构，沿着线首先建议的分离成机制，根据地震的深度，时间关联的强烈迹象出现。我们在太平洋火环沿线200公里以上的地震中表明了这一点，同一统计类型的地震之间在时间上存在正相关，而不同类型的地震之间在时间上存在负相关。这是否能为地震学家揭示有用的机制信息，或者能产生有用的预报，还有待观察。
英文摘要：
If we assume that earthquakes are chaotic, and influenced locally then chaos theory suggests that there should be a temporal association between earthquakes in a local region that should be revealed with statistical examination. To date no strong relationship has been shown (refs not prediction). However, earthquakes are basically failures of structured material systems, and when multiple failure mechanisms are present, prediction of failure is strongly inhibited without first separating the mechanisms. Here we show that by separating earthquakes statistically, based on their central tensor moment structure, along lines first suggested by a separation into mechanisms according to depth of the earthquake, a strong indication of temporal association appears. We show this in earthquakes above 200 Km along the pacific ring of fire, with a positive association in time between earthquakes of the same statistical type and a negative association in time between earthquakes of different types. Whether this can reveal either useful mechanistic information to seismologists, or can result in useful forecasts remains to be seen.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
