大型经济体的梅不稳定性
May's Instability in Large Economies
摘要：
一个大的经济体会稳定吗？基于罗伯特·梅关于大型生态系统的原始论点，我们推测进化和行为力量共同推动经济走向边际稳定。我们研究的企业网络中，生产投入是不容易替代的，在几个现实世界的供应链。依靠随机矩阵理论的结果，我们认为，这种网络一般成为功能失调时，他们的规模增加，当企业之间的异质性变得太强，或当他们的生产投入的可替代性降低。在边际稳定性和大的异质性，我们发现，公司规模的分布发展的幂律尾，经验观察。危机可以由小的特殊冲击引发，这导致违约的“雪崩”，其特征是总产出损失的幂律分布。这种情况自然可以解释众所周知的“小冲击，大商业周期”之谜，正如Bak，Chen，Scheinkman和Woodford很久以前所预测的那样。
英文摘要：
Will a large economy be stable? Building on Robert May's original argument for large ecosystems, we conjecture that evolutionary and behavioural forces conspire to drive the economy towards marginal stability. We study networks of firms in which inputs for production are not easily substitutable, as in several real-world supply chains. Relying on results from Random Matrix Theory, we argue that such networks generically become dysfunctional when their size increases, when the heterogeneity between firms becomes too strong or when substitutability of their production inputs is reduced. At marginal stability and for large heterogeneities, we find that the distribution of firm sizes develops a power-law tail, as observed empirically. Crises can be triggered by small idiosyncratic shocks, which lead to "avalanches" of defaults characterized by a power-law distribution of total output losses. This scenario would naturally explain the well-known "small shocks, large business cycles" puzzle, as anticipated long ago by Bak, Chen, Scheinkman and Woodford.
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