哥斯达黎加2016-2017年寨卡疫情的参数估计：近似贝叶斯计算（ABC）方法
Parameter estimates of the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak in Costa Rica: An Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) Approach
摘要：
在哥斯达黎加，2016年报告了第一例已知的寨卡病例。我们研究了2016-2017年寨卡疫情，并使用每周报告的数据探索了传播动态。采用非线性微分方程单次爆发模型，考虑性传播和媒介取食的宿主可利用性，估计关键参数，拟合数据，计算{ \it基本繁殖数}和$\mathcal{R}_0$分布。此外，基于$\mathcal{R}_0$参数计算灵敏度和弹性分析。
英文摘要：
In Costa Rica, the first known cases of Zika were reported in 2016. We looked at the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak and explored the transmission dynamics using weekly reported data. A nonlinear differential equation single-outbreak model with sexual transmission, as well as host availability for vector-feeding was used to estimate key parameters, fit the data and compute the {\it basic reproductive number}, $\mathcal{R}_0$, distribution. Furthermore, a sensitivity and elasticity analysis was computed based on the $\mathcal{R}_0$ parameters.
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