基于交通微观仿真的概率安全分析
Probabilistic Safety Analysis using Traffic Microscopic Simulation
摘要：
交通微观模拟应用程序是一种常见的工具，在道路交通分析和几次尝试进行道路安全评估最近已经进行。然而，这些方法往往忽略了不同层次的车辆相互作用和/或事故类型之间的因果关系，他们缺乏事故现象本身的物理表示。本文提出了一种新的通用交通微观仿真工具的概率安全评估框架。具体事故发生的概率由事故倾向函数估计，该函数由确定性安全评分分量和随机分量组成。安全评分的公式取决于事件的类型、详细的车辆交互和操纵以及其在模拟环境中的表示。该通用模型适用于城市高速公路的情况下，并指定为四种类型的结果：非事故事件和三种类型的事故在嵌套结构：追尾，换道，和运行小康道路事故。该模型进行了估计和验证，使用模拟的微观数据。为了获得一致的模拟数据，采用了两步模拟校准程序：（1）使用现场收集的真实轨迹进行详细的行为表示;（2）使用安全模型估计中使用的每个事件的汇总数据。最终估计的安全模型能够识别和解释几种模拟车辆相互作用。这些结果是从模拟分析中提取的，这一事实表明，校准的交通微观模拟用于详细的安全评估的真正潜力。
英文摘要：
Traffic microscopic simulation applications are a common tool in road transportation analysis and several attempts to perform road safety assessments have recently been carried out. However, these approaches often ignore causal relationships between different levels of vehicle interactions and/or accident types and they lack a physical representation of the accident phenomena itself. In this paper, a new generic probabilistic safety assessment framework for traffic microscopic simulation tools is proposed. The probability of a specific accident occurring is estimated by an accident propensity function that consists of a deterministic safety score component and a random component. The formulation of the safety score depends on the type of occurrence, on detailed vehicle interactions and maneuvers and on its representation in a simulation environment. This generic model is applied to the case of an urban motorway and specified to four types of outcomes: non-accident events and three types of accidents in a nested structure: rear-end, lane-changing, and run-off-road accidents. The model was estimated and validated using simulated microscopic data. To obtained the consistent simulated data, a two-step simulation calibration procedure was adopted: (1) using real trajectories collected on site for detailed behavior representation; and (2) using aggregate data from each event used in safety model estimation. The final estimated safety model is able to identify and interpret several simulated vehicle interactions. The fact that these outcomes were extracted from simulated analysis shows the real potential of calibrated traffic microscopic simulation for detailed safety assessments.
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