When assessing the short term effect of air pollution on health outcomes, it is common practice to consider one pollutant at a time, due to their high correlation. Multi pollutant methods have been recently proposed, mainly consisting of collapsing the different pollutants into air quality indexes or clustering the pollutants and then evaluating the effect of each cluster on the health outcome. A major drawback of such approaches is that it is not possible to evaluate the health impact of each pollutant. In this paper we propose the use of the Bayesian hierarchical framework to deal with multi pollutant concentration in a two-component model: a pollutant model is specified to estimate the `true' concentration values for if your each pollutant and then such concentration is linked to the health outcomes in a time series perspective. Through a simulation study we evaluate the model performance and we apply the modelling framework to investigate the effect of six pollutants on cardiovascular mortality in Greater London in 2011-2012.
Ground-level ozone and particulate matter pollutants are associated with a variety of health issues and increased mortality. For this reason, Mexican environmental agencies regulate pollutant levels. In addition, Mexico City defines pollution emergencies using thresholds that rely on regional maxima for ozone and particulate matter with diameter less than 10 micrometers ($\text{PM}_{10}$). To predict local pollution emergencies and to assess compliance to Mexican ambient air quality standards, we analyze hourly ozone and $\text{PM}_{10}$ measurements from 24 stations across Mexico City from 20…
University of North Texas（北德克萨斯大学）；Pacific Northwest National Laboratory（太平洋西北国家实验室）；Indiana University（印第安纳大学）；Harvard University（哈佛大学）
Atmospheric modeling has recently experienced a surge with the advent of deep learning. Most of these models, however, predict concentrations of pollutants following a data-driven approach in which the physical laws that govern their behaviors and relationships remain hidden. With the aid of real-world air quality data collected hourly in different stations throughout Madrid, we present an empirical approach using data-driven techniques with the following goals: (1) Find parsimonious systems of ordinary differential equations via sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics (SINDy) that model t…
School of Statistics, Dongbei University of Finance and Economics（东北财经大学统计学院）
High levels of air pollution may seriously affect people's living environment and even endanger their lives. In order to reduce air pollution concentrations, and warn the public before the occurrence of hazardous air pollutants, it is urgent to design an accurate and reliable air pollutant forecasting model. However, most previous research have many deficiencies, such as ignoring the importance of predictive stability, and poor initial parameters and so on, which have significantly effect on the performance of air pollution prediction. Therefore, to address these issues, a novel hybrid model i…
A typical problem in air pollution epidemiology is exposure assessment for individuals for which health data are available. Due to the sparsity of monitoring sites and the limited temporal frequency with which measurements of air pollutants concentrations are collected (for most pollutants, once every 3 or 6 days), epidemiologists have been moving away from characterizing ambient air pollution exposure solely using measurements. In the last few years, substantial research efforts have been placed in developing statistical methods or machine learning techniques to generate estimates of air poll…
This paper describes an agent based approach for simulating the control of an air pollution crisis. A Gaussian Plum air pollution dispersion model (GPD) is combined with an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict the concentration levels of three different air pollutants. The two models (GPM and ANN) are integrated with a MAS (multi-agent system). The MAS models pollutant sources controllers and air pollution monitoring agencies as software agents. The population of agents cooperates with each other in order to reduce their emissions and control the air pollution. Leaks or natural sources o…
Managing the quality of water for present and future generations of coastal regions should be a central concern of both citizens and public officials. Remote sensing can contribute to the management and monitoring of coastal water and pollutants. Algal blooms are a coastal pollutant that is a cause of concern. Many satellite data, such as MODIS, have been used to generate water-quality products to detect the blooms such as chlorophyll a (Chl-a), a photosynthesis index called fluorescence line height (FLH), and sea surface temperature (SST). It is important to characterize the spatial and tempo…
Ambient concentrations of many pollutants are associated with emissions due to human activity, such as road transport and other combustion sources. In this paper we consider air pollution as a multi--level phenomenon within a Bayesian hierarchical model. We examine different scales of variation in pollution concentrations ranging from large scale transboundary effects to more localised effects which are directly related to human activity. Specifically, in the first stage of the model, we isolate underlying patterns in pollution concentrations due to global factors such as underlying climate an…
Tracking Urban Atmospheric Pollutants using Sentinel-5P Satellite Data
Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Matemáticas, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Campus Gustavo Galindo, Km. 30.5 Vía Perimetral, Guayaquil, 090902, Ecuador（生态与数学学院，海岸理工大学，ESPOL，加斯托·加林多校区，公里30.5环形路，瓜亚基尔，090902，厄瓜多尔）；Software Engineering Department, Research Center for Information and Communication Technologies (CITIC-UGR), University of Granada, 18071, Granada, Spain（软件工程系，信息与通信技术研究中心（CITIC-UGR），格拉纳达大学，18071，格拉纳达，西班牙）
Causal Inference with Double/Debiased Machine Learning for Evaluating the Health Effects of Multiple Mismeasured Pollutants
Yale School of Public Health（耶鲁大学公共卫生学院）；Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health（哈佛陈曾熙公共卫生学院）；Harvard Medical School（哈佛医学院）；Brigham and Women’s Hospital（布莱根妇女医院）；Tufts University（塔夫茨大学）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Yale School of Medicine（耶鲁大学医学院）
Statistical Modelling of Planetary Boundary Layer Height and Its Measurement Uncertainty Using GRUAN Profiles
University School for Advanced Studies IUSS Pavia（帕维亚高等研究大学）；Institute of Integrated Methodologies for Earth Observation, CNR-IMIOT（国家研究委员会地球观测综合方法研究所）；University of Bergamo（贝加莫大学）；University of Salerno（萨莱诺大学）
Counting the number of parasite eggs in faecal samples is a widely used diagnostic method to evaluate parasite burden. Typically a sub-sample of the diluted faeces is examined for eggs. The resulting egg counts are multiplied by a specific correction factor to estimate the mean parasite burden. To detect anthelmintic resistance, the mean parasite burden from treated and untreated animals are compared. However, this standard method has some limitations. In particular, the analysis of repeated samples may produce quite variable results as the sampling variability due to the counting technique is…
Variance-based variable selection in sensor calibration with strong interferents -- application to air pollution monitoring with a carbon nanotube sensor array
The geographic variation of terrestrial radiation can be exploited in epidemiological studies of the health effects of protracted low-dose exposure. Various methods have been applied to derive maps of this variation. We aimed to construct a map of terrestrial radiation for Switzerland. We used airborne $γ$-spectrometry measurements to model the ambient dose rates from terrestrial radiation through a Bayesian mixed-effects model and conducted inference using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). We predicted higher levels of ambient dose rates in the alpine regions and Ticino compared…
Capturing the potentially strong dependence among the peak concentrations of multiple air pollutants across a spatial region is crucial for assessing the related public health risks. In order to investigate the multivariate spatial dependence properties of air pollution extremes, we introduce a new class of multivariate max-stable processes. Our proposed model admits a hierarchical tree-based formulation, in which the data are conditionally independent given some latent nested $α$-stable random factors. The hierarchical structure facilitates Bayesian inference and offers a convenient and inter…
We develop a causal inference approach to estimate the number of adverse health events prevented by large-scale air quality regulations via changes in exposure to multiple pollutants. This approach is motivated by regulations that impact pollution levels in all areas within their purview. We introduce a causal estimand called the Total Events Avoided (TEA) by the regulation, defined as the difference in the expected number of health events under the no-regulation pollution exposures and the observed number of health events under the with-regulation pollution exposures. We propose a matching me…
Insight Centre for Data Analytics（洞察数据分析中心）；School of Computer Science, University College Dublin（都柏林大学学院计算机科学学院）；Data Science Institute, National University of Ireland, Galway（爱尔兰国立大学戈尔韦数据科学研究所）
Hierarchical clustering has been shown to be valuable in many scenarios. Despite its usefulness to many situations, there is no agreed methodology on how to properly evaluate the hierarchies produced from different techniques, particularly in the case where ground-truth labels are unavailable. This motivates us to propose a framework for assessing the quality of hierarchical clustering allocations which covers the case of no ground-truth information. This measurement is useful, e.g., to assess the hierarchical structures used by online retailer websites to display their product catalogues. Our…
Analyses of environmental phenomena often are concerned with understanding unlikely events such as floods, heatwaves, droughts or high concentrations of pollutants. Yet the majority of the causal inference literature has focused on modelling means, rather than (possibly high) quantiles. We define a general estimator of the population quantile treatment (or exposure) effects (QTE) -- the weighted QTE (WQTE) -- of which the population QTE is a special case, along with a general class of balancing weights incorporating the propensity score. Asymptotic properties of the proposed WQTE estimators ar…
Ground-Level Near Real-Time Modeling for PM2.5 Pollution Prediction
Oak Ridge National Laboratory（橡树岭国家实验室）；Johnson & Johnson（强生公司）；Los Alamos National Laboratory（洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室）；University of Southern California（南加州大学）；University of Utah（犹他大学）
