生产性生态系统和发展之箭
Productive Ecosystems and the Arrow of Development
摘要：
经济增长往往与经济活动的多样化有关。在一个国家制造产品取决于拥有和获得制造产品所需的能力，这使得过程依赖于路径。我们推导出一个概率模型来描述国家能力积累和产品多样化的有向动态过程。利用国际贸易数据，该模型使我们能够凭经验确定一套预先存在的产品，使产品能够有竞争力地出口。我们把这一套称为产品的生态系统。我们构建了一个有向网络的产品，生态空间，其中的边缘权重是能力重叠的估计。对这个网络的分析使我们能够确定过渡产品和核心-外围结构。随着时间的推移，中低收入国家将不再使用过渡产品，而进入网络的核心。最后，我们表明，该模型是预测产品外观。
英文摘要：
Economic growth is often associated with diversification of economic activities. Making a product in a country is dependent on having, and acquiring, the capabilities needed to make the product, making the process path-dependent. We derive a probabilistic model to describe the directed dynamic process of capability accumulation and product diversification of countries. Using international trade data, the model enables us to empirically identify the set of pre-existing products that enables a product to be exported competitively. We refer to this set as the ecosystem of the product. We construct a directed network of products, the Eco Space, where the edge weight is an estimate of capability overlap. Analysis of this network enables us to identify transition products and a core-periphery structure. Low and middle-income countries move out of transition products and into the core of the network over time. Finally, we show that the model is predictive of product appearances.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
