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arXiv 1806.11222cs.LGstat.ML
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使用扩展区间最小化的紧预测区间

Tight Prediction Intervals Using Expanded Interval Minimization

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Dongqi Su, Ying Yin Ting, Jason Ansel

摘要:

预测区间是量化回归问题中不确定性的一种有价值的方法。好的预测区间应该是正确的,包含下限和上限之间的实际值,至少有一个目标百分比的时间;和紧密的,有一个小的边界的平均宽度。用于生成预测区间的许多现有技术对误差的分布做出假设,这导致它们对于具有不对称分布的问题工作不佳。本文提出了扩展区间最小化(EIM),一种新的损失函数产生预测区间使用神经网络。此损失函数使用小批量统计来估计覆盖率并优化预测区间的宽度。它没有像以前的工作一样对数据和误差的分布做出相同的假设。我们比较了三种已发表的技术,并显示EIM在两个大型真实世界数据集和不同的覆盖水平上平均产生1.37倍更紧的预测区间,在最坏的情况下产生1.06倍更紧的区间。

英文摘要:

Prediction intervals are a valuable way of quantifying uncertainty in regression problems. Good prediction intervals should be both correct, containing the actual value between the lower and upper bound at least a target percentage of the time; and tight, having a small mean width of the bounds. Many prior techniques for generating prediction intervals make assumptions on the distribution of error, which causes them to work poorly for problems with asymmetric distributions. This paper presents Expanded Interval Minimization (EIM), a novel loss function for generating prediction intervals using neural networks. This loss function uses minibatch statistics to estimate the coverage and optimize the width of the prediction intervals. It does not make the same assumptions on the distributions of data and error as prior work. We compare to three published techniques and show EIM produces on average 1.37x tighter prediction intervals and in the worst case 1.06x tighter intervals across two large real-world datasets and varying coverage levels.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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