性传播衣原体传播的数学模型
Mathematical Models for Predicting and Mitigating the Spread of Chlamydia Sexually Transmitted Infection
摘要：
沙眼衣原体（Ct）是美国最常见的细菌性传播感染（STI），也是女性不孕、盆腔炎和异位妊娠的主要原因。尽管几十年来对妇女进行了Ct筛查，但在新奥尔良等高流行地区，Ct的发病率继续上升。新奥尔良的一项试点研究发现，14-24岁的非洲裔美国人（AAs）中约有11%感染了Ct。我们的目标是数学模型的影响，不同的干预措施AA男性居民在新奥尔良之间的妇女居民在同一地区的Ct的一般率。我们创建和分析数学模型，如多风险和连续风险房室模型和基于代理的网络模型，首先帮助了解Ct的传播，其次评估和估计行为和生物医学干预措施，包括安全套使用，筛查，伴侣通知，社交朋友通知和重新筛选。我们的房室模型预测Ct患病率是一个人的伴侣数量的函数，并量化这种分布如何作为安全套使用的函数变化。我们还观察到，尽管增加Ct筛查和再筛查以及治疗感染者的伴侣将降低患病率，但仅凭这些缓解措施不足以控制流行病。需要结合性伴侣和社交朋友通知来减轻Ct。
英文摘要：
Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI) in the United States and is major cause of infertility, pelvic inflammatory disease, and ectopic pregnancy among women. Despite decades of screening women for Ct, rates continue to increase among them in high prevalent areas such as New Orleans. A pilot study in New Orleans found approximately 11% of 14-24 year old of African Americans (AAs) were infected with Ct. Our goal is to mathematically model the impact of different interventions for AA men resident in New Orleans on the general rate of Ct among women resident at the same region. We create and analyze mathematical models such as multi-risk and continuous-risk compartmental models and agent-based network model to first help understand the spread of Ct and second evaluate and estimate behavioral and biomedical interventions including condom-use, screening, partner notification, social friend notification, and rescreening. Our compartmental models predict the Ct prevalence is a function of the number of partners for a person, and quantify how this distribution changes as a function of condom-use. We also observe that although increased Ct screening and rescreening, and treating partners of infected people will reduce the prevalence, these mitigations alone are not sufficient to control the epidemic. A combination of both sexual partner and social friend notification is needed to mitigate Ct.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
