Despite the recent successes of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) in AI applications, PPLs offer only limited support for random variables whose distributions combine discrete and continuous elements. We develop the notion of measure-theoretic Bayesian networks (MTBNs) and use it to provide more general semantics for PPLs with arbitrarily many random variables defined over arbitrary measure spaces. We develop two new general sampling algorithms that are provably correct under the MTBN framework: the lexicographic likelihood weighting (LLW) for general MTBNs and the lexicographic particle filter (LPF), a specialized algorithm for state-space models. We further integrate MTBNs into a widely used PPL system, BLOG, and verify the effectiveness of the new inference algorithms through representative examples.
We propose design guidelines for a probabilistic programming facility suitable for deployment as a part of a production software system. As a reference implementation, we introduce Infergo, a probabilistic programming facility for Go, a modern programming language of choice for server-side software development. We argue that a similar probabilistic programming facility can be added to most modern general-purpose programming languages. Probabilistic programming enables automatic tuning of program parameters and algorithmic decision making through probabilistic inference based on the data. To fa…
IBM Research（IBM研究公司/IBM研究（注：IBM Research通常译为IBM研究，属于企业研究机构，按要求提取到公司级别））
Deep probabilistic programming languages try to combine the advantages of deep learning with those of probabilistic programming languages. If successful, this would be a big step forward in machine learning and programming languages. Unfortunately, as of now, this new crop of languages is hard to use and understand. This paper addresses this problem directly by explaining deep probabilistic programming languages and indirectly by characterizing their current strengths and weaknesses.
Stan is a probabilistic programming language that is popular in the statistics community, with a high-level syntax for expressing probabilistic models. Stan differs by nature from generative probabilistic programming languages like Church, Anglican, or Pyro. This paper presents a comprehensive compilation scheme to compile any Stan model to a generative language and proves its correctness. We use our compilation scheme to build two new backends for the Stanc3 compiler targeting Pyro and NumPyro. Experimental results show that the NumPyro backend yields a 2.3x speedup compared to Stan in geomet…
Ever since the Multilayered Perceptron was first introduced the connectionist community has struggled with the concept of uncertainty and how this could be represented in these types of models. This past decade has seen a lot of effort in trying to join the principled approach of probabilistic modeling with the scalable nature of deep neural networks. While the theoretical benefits of this consolidation are clear, there are also several important practical aspects of these endeavors; namely to force the models we create to represent, learn, and report uncertainty in every prediction that is ma…
Probabilistic programming is related to a compositional approach to stochastic modeling by switching from discrete to continuous time dynamics. In continuous time, an operator-algebra semantics is available in which processes proceeding in parallel (and possibly interacting) have summed time-evolution operators. From this foundation, algorithms for simulation, inference and model reduction may be systematically derived. The useful consequences are potentially far-reaching in computational science, machine learning and beyond. Hybrid compositional stochastic modeling/probabilistic programming a…
Forward inference techniques such as sequential Monte Carlo and particle Markov chain Monte Carlo for probabilistic programming can be implemented in any programming language by creative use of standardized operating system functionality including processes, forking, mutexes, and shared memory. Exploiting this we have defined, developed, and tested a probabilistic programming language intermediate representation language we call probabilistic C, which itself can be compiled to machine code by standard compilers and linked to operating system libraries yielding an efficient, scalable, portable …
University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）；KAIST（韩国科学技术院）；University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）
This book is a graduate-level introduction to probabilistic programming. It not only provides a thorough background for anyone wishing to use a probabilistic programming system, but also introduces the techniques needed to design and build these systems. It is aimed at people who have an undergraduate-level understanding of either or, ideally, both probabilistic machine learning and programming languages. We start with a discussion of model-based reasoning and explain why conditioning is a foundational computation central to the fields of probabilistic machine learning and artificial intellige…
Spreadsheet workbook contents are simple programs. Because of this, probabilistic programming techniques can be used to perform Bayesian inversion of spreadsheet computations. What is more, existing execution engines in spreadsheet applications such as Microsoft Excel can be made to do this using only built-in functionality. We demonstrate this by developing a native Excel implementation of both a particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo variant and black-box variational inference for spreadsheet probabilistic programming. The resulting engine performs probabilistically coherent inference over spread…
Babylon Health（巴比伦健康）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）
We elaborate on using importance sampling for causal reasoning, in particular for counterfactual inference. We show how this can be implemented natively in probabilistic programming. By considering the structure of the counterfactual query, one can significantly optimise the inference process. We also consider design choices to enable further optimisations. We introduce MultiVerse, a probabilistic programming prototype engine for approximate causal reasoning. We provide experimental results and compare with Pyro, an existing probabilistic programming framework with some of causal reasoning too…
We introduce the first, general purpose, slice sampling inference engine for probabilistic programs. This engine is released as part of StocPy, a new Turing-Complete probabilistic programming language, available as a Python library. We present a transdimensional generalisation of slice sampling which is necessary for the inference engine to work on traces with different numbers of random variables. We show that StocPy compares favourably to other PPLs in terms of flexibility and usability, and that slice sampling can outperform previously introduced inference methods. Our experiments include a…
This Bachelor's thesis, written in Russian, is devoted to a relatively new direction in the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence, namely probabilistic programming. The thesis gives a brief overview to the already existing probabilistic programming languages: Church, Venture, and Anglican. It also describes the results of the first experiments on the automatic induction of probabilistic programs. The thesis was submitted, in June 2014, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Science in Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Computer Sci…
Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Utrecht University（乌得勒支大学）
Probabilistic programming is perfectly suited to reliable and transparent data science, as it allows the user to specify their models in a high-level language without worrying about the complexities of how to fit the models. Static analysis of probabilistic programs presents even further opportunities for enabling a high-level style of programming, by automating time-consuming and error-prone tasks. We apply static analysis to probabilistic programs to automate large parts of two crucial model checking methods: Prior Predictive Checks and Simulation-Based Calibration. Our method transforms a p…
We present a new algorithm for approximate inference in probabilistic programs, based on a stochastic gradient for variational programs. This method is efficient without restrictions on the probabilistic program; it is particularly practical for distributions which are not analytically tractable, including highly structured distributions that arise in probabilistic programs. We show how to automatically derive mean-field probabilistic programs and optimize them, and demonstrate that our perspective improves inference efficiency over other algorithms.
In this paper we introduce RankPL, a modeling language that can be thought of as a qualitative variant of a probabilistic programming language with a semantics based on Spohn's ranking theory. Broadly speaking, RankPL can be used to represent and reason about processes that exhibit uncertainty expressible by distinguishing "normal" from" surprising" events. RankPL allows (iterated) revision of rankings over alternative program states and supports various types of reasoning, including abduction and causal inference. We present the language, its denotational semantics, and a number of practical …
UC Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）
A probabilistic program defines a probability measure over its semantic structures. One common goal of probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) is to compute posterior probabilities for arbitrary models and queries, given observed evidence, using a generic inference engine. Most PPL inference engines---even the compiled ones---incur significant runtime interpretation overhead, especially for contingent and open-universe models. This paper describes Swift, a compiler for the BLOG PPL. Swift-generated code incorporates optimizations that eliminate interpretation overhead, maintain dynamic depe…
ITMO University（ITMO大学）；St. Petersburg State University（圣彼得堡国立大学）
Probabilistic programming is considered as a framework, in which basic components of cognitive architectures can be represented in unified and elegant fashion. At the same time, necessity of adopting some component of cognitive architectures for extending capabilities of probabilistic programming languages is pointed out. In particular, implicit specification of generative models via declaration of concepts and links between them is proposed, and usefulness of declarative knowledge for achieving efficient inference is briefly discussed.
Databases are widespread, yet extracting relevant data can be difficult. Without substantial domain knowledge, multivariate search queries often return sparse or uninformative results. This paper introduces an approach for searching structured data based on probabilistic programming and nonparametric Bayes. Users specify queries in a probabilistic language that combines standard SQL database search operators with an information theoretic ranking function called predictive relevance. Predictive relevance can be calculated by a fast sparse matrix algorithm based on posterior samples from CrossCa…
NumPyro is a lightweight library that provides an alternate NumPy backend to the Pyro probabilistic programming language with the same modeling interface, language primitives and effect handling abstractions. Effect handlers allow Pyro's modeling API to be extended to NumPyro despite its being built atop a fundamentally different JAX-based functional backend. In this work, we demonstrate the power of composing Pyro's effect handlers with the program transformations that enable hardware acceleration, automatic differentiation, and vectorization in JAX. In particular, NumPyro provides an iterati…
Computer Science & Artificial Intelligence Laboratory（计算机科学与人工智能实验室）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；Department of Brain & Cognitive Sciences（大脑与认知科学系）
Probabilistic techniques are central to data analysis, but different approaches can be difficult to apply, combine, and compare. This paper introduces composable generative population models (CGPMs), a computational abstraction that extends directed graphical models and can be used to describe and compose a broad class of probabilistic data analysis techniques. Examples include hierarchical Bayesian models, multivariate kernel methods, discriminative machine learning, clustering algorithms, dimensionality reduction, and arbitrary probabilistic programs. We also demonstrate the integration of C…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）
We study the semantic foundation of expressive probabilistic programming languages, that support higher-order functions, continuous distributions, and soft constraints (such as Anglican, Church, and Venture). We define a metalanguage (an idealised version of Anglican) for probabilistic computation with the above features, develop both operational and denotational semantics, and prove soundness, adequacy, and termination. They involve measure theory, stochastic labelled transition systems, and functor categories, but admit intuitive computational readings, one of which views sampled random vari…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
We introduce and demonstrate a new approach to inference in expressive probabilistic programming languages based on particle Markov chain Monte Carlo. Our approach is simple to implement and easy to parallelize. It applies to Turing-complete probabilistic programming languages and supports accurate inference in models that make use of complex control flow, including stochastic recursion. It also includes primitives from Bayesian nonparametric statistics. Our experiments show that this approach can be more efficient than previously introduced single-site Metropolis-Hastings methods.
We introduce a method for using deep neural networks to amortize the cost of inference in models from the family induced by universal probabilistic programming languages, establishing a framework that combines the strengths of probabilistic programming and deep learning methods. We call what we do "compilation of inference" because our method transforms a denotational specification of an inference problem in the form of a probabilistic program written in a universal programming language into a trained neural network denoted in a neural network specification language. When at test time this neu…
Probabilistic programming languages and modeling toolkits are two modular ways to build and reuse stochastic models and inference procedures. Combining strengths of both, we express models and inference as generalized coroutines in the same general-purpose language. We use existing facilities of the language, such as rich libraries, optimizing compilers, and types, to develop concise, declarative, and realistic models with competitive performance on exact and approximate inference. In particular, a wide range of models can be expressed using memoization. Because deterministic parts of models r…
In this paper, we derive and implement a probabilistic programming idiom for the problem of acquiring new knowledge about an environment. The idiom is implemented utilizing a modern probabilistic programming language. We demonstrate the utility of this idiom by implementing an algorithm for the specific problem of active mapping and robot exploration. Finally, we evaluate the functionality of the implementation through an extensive simulation study utilizing the HouseExpo dataset.
Probabilistic programming provides the means to represent and reason about complex probabilistic models using programming language constructs. Even simple probabilistic programs can produce models with infinitely many variables. Factored inference algorithms are widely used for probabilistic graphical models, but cannot be applied to these programs because all the variables and factors have to be enumerated. In this paper, we present a new inference framework, lazy factored inference (LFI), that enables factored algorithms to be used for models with infinitely many variables. LFI expands the m…
Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Adobe Research（Adobe研究院）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）；Google Brain（谷歌大脑）
We propose Edward, a Turing-complete probabilistic programming language. Edward defines two compositional representations---random variables and inference. By treating inference as a first class citizen, on a par with modeling, we show that probabilistic programming can be as flexible and computationally efficient as traditional deep learning. For flexibility, Edward makes it easy to fit the same model using a variety of composable inference methods, ranging from point estimation to variational inference to MCMC. In addition, Edward can reuse the modeling representation as part of inference, f…
It is argued that 4-valued paraconsistent truth values (called here "p-bits") can serve as a conceptual, mathematical and practical foundation for highly AI-relevant forms of probabilistic logic and probabilistic programming and concept formation. First it is shown that appropriate averaging-across-situations and renormalization of 4-valued p-bits operating in accordance with Constructible Duality (CD) logic yields PLN (Probabilistic Logic Networks) strength-and-confidence truth values. Then variations on the Curry-Howard correspondence are used to map these paraconsistent and probabilistic lo…
University of Edinburgh（爱丁堡大学）；Alan Turing Institute（艾伦·图灵研究所）
Automated planning is a major topic of research in artificial intelligence, and enjoys a long and distinguished history. The classical paradigm assumes a distinguished initial state, comprised of a set of facts, and is defined over a set of actions which change that state in one way or another. Planning in many real-world settings, however, is much more involved: an agent's knowledge is almost never simply a set of facts that are true, and actions that the agent intends to execute never operate the way they are supposed to. Thus, probabilistic planning attempts to incorporate stochastic models…
University of British Columbia（不列颠哥伦比亚大学）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；MILA（蒙特利尔学习算法研究所）
Naive approaches to amortized inference in probabilistic programs with unbounded loops can produce estimators with infinite variance. This is particularly true of importance sampling inference in programs that explicitly include rejection sampling as part of the user-programmed generative procedure. In this paper we develop a new and efficient amortized importance sampling estimator. We prove finite variance of our estimator and empirically demonstrate our method's correctness and efficiency compared to existing alternatives on generative programs containing rejection sampling loops and discus…
Existing decision-theoretic reasoning frameworks such as decision networks use simple data structures and processes. However, decisions are often made based on complex data structures, such as social networks and protein sequences, and rich processes involving those structures. We present a framework for representing decision problems with complex data structures using probabilistic programming, allowing probabilistic models to be created with programming language constructs such as data structures and control flow. We provide a way to use arbitrary data types with minimal effort from the user…
This thesis describes work on two applications of probabilistic programming: the learning of probabilistic program code given specifications, in particular program code of one-dimensional samplers; and the facilitation of sequential Monte Carlo inference with help of data-driven proposals. The latter is presented with experimental results on a linear Gaussian model and a non-parametric dependent Dirichlet process mixture of objects model for object recognition and tracking. In Chapter 1 we provide a brief introduction to probabilistic programming. In Chapter 2 we present an approach to automat…
Datasets with hundreds of variables and many missing values are commonplace. In this setting, it is both statistically and computationally challenging to detect true predictive relationships between variables and also to suppress false positives. This paper proposes an approach that combines probabilistic programming, information theory, and non-parametric Bayes. It shows how to use Bayesian non-parametric modeling to (i) build an ensemble of joint probability models for all the variables; (ii) efficiently detect marginal independencies; and (iii) estimate the conditional mutual information be…
A*STAR Artificial Intelligence Initiative（新加坡科技研究局人工智能计划）；Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency of Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR)（新加坡科技研究局高性能计算研究院）；National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）
Affective Computing is a rapidly growing field spurred by advancements in artificial intelligence, but often, held back by the inability to translate psychological theories of emotion into tractable computational models. To address this, we propose a probabilistic programming approach to affective computing, which models psychological-grounded theories as generative models of emotion, and implements them as stochastic, executable computer programs. We first review probabilistic approaches that integrate reasoning about emotions with reasoning about other latent mental states (e.g., beliefs, de…
We design a new myopic strategy for a wide class of sequential design of experiment (DOE) problems, where the goal is to collect data in order to to fulfil a certain problem specific goal. Our approach, Myopic Posterior Sampling (MPS), is inspired by the classical posterior (Thompson) sampling algorithm for multi-armed bandits and leverages the flexibility of probabilistic programming and approximate Bayesian inference to address a broad set of problems. Empirically, this general-purpose strategy is competitive with more specialised methods in a wide array of DOE tasks, and more importantly, e…
Most of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms in existing probabilistic programming systems suboptimally use only model priors as proposal distributions. In this work, we describe an approach for training a discriminative model, namely a neural network, in order to approximate the optimal proposal by using posterior estimates from previous runs of inference. We show an example that incorporates a data-driven proposal for use in a non-parametric model in the Anglican probabilistic programming system. Our results show that data-driven proposals can significa…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；New York University（纽约大学）；Intel Corporation（英特尔公司）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）
We consider the problem of Bayesian inference in the family of probabilistic models implicitly defined by stochastic generative models of data. In scientific fields ranging from population biology to cosmology, low-level mechanistic components are composed to create complex generative models. These models lead to intractable likelihoods and are typically non-differentiable, which poses challenges for traditional approaches to inference. We extend previous work in "inference compilation", which combines universal probabilistic programming and deep learning methods, to large-scale scientific sim…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Siberian Federal University（西伯利亚联邦大学）
We develop a technique for generalising from data in which models are samplers represented as program text. We establish encouraging empirical results that suggest that Markov chain Monte Carlo probabilistic programming inference techniques coupled with higher-order probabilistic programming languages are now sufficiently powerful to enable successful inference of this kind in nontrivial domains. We also introduce a new notion of probabilistic program compilation and show how the same machinery might be used in the future to compile probabilistic programs for efficient reusable predictive infe…
We introduce a formal meta-language for probabilistic programming, capable of expressing both programs and the type systems in which they are embedded. We are motivated here by the desire to allow an AGI to learn not only relevant knowledge (programs/proofs), but also appropriate ways of reasoning (logics/type systems). We draw on the frameworks of cubical type theory and dependent typed metagraphs to formalize our approach. In doing so, we show that specific constructions within the meta-language can be related via bisimulation (implying path equivalence) to the type systems they correspond. …
We describe Venture, an interactive virtual machine for probabilistic programming that aims to be sufficiently expressive, extensible, and efficient for general-purpose use. Like Church, probabilistic models and inference problems in Venture are specified via a Turing-complete, higher-order probabilistic language descended from Lisp. Unlike Church, Venture also provides a compositional language for custom inference strategies built out of scalable exact and approximate techniques. We also describe four key aspects of Venture's implementation that build on ideas from probabilistic graphical mod…
Recent findings suggest that humans deploy cognitive mechanism of physics simulation engines to simulate the physics of objects. We propose a framework for bots to deploy probabilistic programming tools for interacting with intuitive physics environments. The framework employs a physics simulation in a probabilistic way to infer about moves performed by an agent in a setting governed by Newtonian laws of motion. However, methods of probabilistic programs can be slow in such setting due to their need to generate many samples. We complement the model with a model-free approach to aid the samplin…
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；University of Louisville（路易斯维尔大学）
Is it possible to make statistical inference broadly accessible to non-statisticians without sacrificing mathematical rigor or inference quality? This paper describes BayesDB, a probabilistic programming platform that aims to enable users to query the probable implications of their data as directly as SQL databases enable them to query the data itself. This paper focuses on four aspects of BayesDB: (i) BQL, an SQL-like query language for Bayesian data analysis, that answers queries by averaging over an implicit space of probabilistic models; (ii) techniques for implementing BQL using a broad c…
Reasoning on large and complex real-world models is a computationally difficult task, yet one that is required for effective use of many AI applications. A plethora of inference algorithms have been developed that work well on specific models or only on parts of general models. Consequently, a system that can intelligently apply these inference algorithms to different parts of a model for fast reasoning is highly desirable. We introduce a new framework called structured factored inference (SFI) that provides the foundation for such a system. Using models encoded in a probabilistic programming …
In many data-driven applications, collecting data from different sources is increasingly desirable for enhancing performance. In this paper, we are interested in the problem of probabilistic forecasting with multi-source time series. We propose a neural mixture structure-based probability model for learning different predictive relations and their adaptive combinations from multi-source time series. We present the prediction and uncertainty quantification methods that apply to different distributions of target variables. Additionally, given the imbalanced and unstable behaviors observed during…
In probabilistic reasoning, the traditionally discrete domain has been elevated to the hybrid domain encompassing additionally continuous random variables. Inference in the hybrid domain, however, usually necessitates to condone trade-offs on either the inference on discrete or continuous random variables. We introduce a novel approach based on weighted model integration and algebraic model counting that circumvents these trade-offs. We then show how it supports knowledge compilation and exact probabilistic inference. Moreover, we introduce the hybrid probabilistic logic programming language H…
We present probabilistic logic programming under inheritance with overriding. This approach is based on new notions of entailment for reasoning with conditional constraints, which are obtained from the classical notion of logical entailment by adding the principle of inheritance with overriding. This is done by using recent approaches to probabilistic default reasoning with conditional constraints. We analyze the semantic properties of the new entailment relations. We also present algorithms for probabilistic logic programming under inheritance with overriding, and program transformations for …
Neural-symbolic AI (NeSy) allows neural networks to exploit symbolic background knowledge in the form of logic. It has been shown to aid learning in the limited data regime and to facilitate inference on out-of-distribution data. Probabilistic NeSy focuses on integrating neural networks with both logic and probability theory, which additionally allows learning under uncertainty. A major limitation of current probabilistic NeSy systems, such as DeepProbLog, is their restriction to finite probability distributions, i.e., discrete random variables. In contrast, deep probabilistic programming (DPP…
This paper describes diff-SAT, an Answer Set and SAT solver which combines regular solving with the capability to use probabilistic clauses, facts and rules, and to sample an optimal world-view (multiset of satisfying Boolean variable assignments or answer sets) subject to user-provided probabilistic constraints. The sampling process minimizes a user-defined differentiable objective function using a gradient descent based optimization method called Differentiable Satisfiability Solving ($\partial\mathrm{SAT}$) respectively Differentiable Answer Set Programming ($\partial\mathrm{ASP}$). Use cas…
KU Leuven（鲁汶大学）；Cardiff University（卡迪夫大学）；Ghent University - imec（根特大学-imec）
We introduce DeepProbLog, a neural probabilistic logic programming language that incorporates deep learning by means of neural predicates. We show how existing inference and learning techniques of the underlying probabilistic logic programming language ProbLog can be adapted for the new language. We theoretically and experimentally demonstrate that DeepProbLog supports (i) both symbolic and subsymbolic representations and inference, (ii) program induction, (iii) probabilistic (logic) programming, and (iv) (deep) learning from examples. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to pr…
Complex Event Recognition (CER) systems detect event occurrences in streaming time-stamped input using predefined event patterns. Logic-based approaches are of special interest in CER, since, via Statistical Relational AI, they combine uncertainty-resilient reasoning with time and change, with machine learning, thus alleviating the cost of manual event pattern authoring. We present a system based on Answer Set Programming (ASP), capable of probabilistic reasoning with complex event patterns in the form of weighted rules in the Event Calculus, whose structure and weights are learnt online. We c…
We introduce a lazy approach to the explanation-based approximation of probabilistic logic programs. It uses only the most significant part of the program when searching for explanations. The result is a fast and anytime approximate inference algorithm which returns hard lower and upper bounds on the exact probability. We experimentally show that this method outperforms state-of-the-art approximate inference.
KU Leuven（鲁汶大学）；Cardiff University（卡迪夫大学）；Ghent University - imec（根特大学-校际微电子中心）
We introduce DeepProbLog, a probabilistic logic programming language that incorporates deep learning by means of neural predicates. We show how existing inference and learning techniques can be adapted for the new language. Our experiments demonstrate that DeepProbLog supports both symbolic and subsymbolic representations and inference, 1) program induction, 2) probabilistic (logic) programming, and 3) (deep) learning from examples. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to propose a framework where general-purpose neural networks and expressive probabilistic-logical modeling and…
