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arXiv 1806.00352cs.AI
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因果不充分条件下的过快因果推理

Too Fast Causal Inference under Causal Insufficiency

Institute of Computer Science, Polish Academy of Sciences(波兰科学院计算机科学研究所)

Mieczysław A. Kłopotek

摘要:

因果关系不充分的结构(具有潜在或隐藏变量的模型,或具有混杂等)联合概率分布不仅在统计学中,而且在各种人工智能系统中都是深入研究的主题。在人工智能中,信念网络是联合概率分布的表示,具有潜在的有向无环图结构,由于已经为信念网络结构开发了有效的推理(不确定性传播)方法,因此受到特别关注。因此,已经开发了算法来从数据中获取信念网络结构。由于变量隐藏造成的伪影会对导出的信念网络的性能产生负面影响,因此研究了具有潜在变量的模型,并开发了几种在因果不充分情况下学习信念网络结构的算法。令人遗憾的是,其中一些已经知道是错误的(例如[Pearl:Verma:91]的IC算法)。本文致力于另一种算法,快速因果推理(FCI)算法[Spirtes:93]。通过一个特别构造的例子证明,该算法在[Spirtes:93]中也是错误的。该算法失败的根本原因是在网络节点之间临时引入了非真实链接,以便稍后删除。虽然对于平凡的依赖结构,这些非真实的链接实际上可以被移除,但对于复杂的依赖结构,例如对于本文中描述的情况,情况可能并非如此。提出了解决这一问题的方法。

英文摘要:

Causally insufficient structures (models with latent or hidden variables, or with confounding etc.) of joint probability distributions have been subject of intense study not only in statistics, but also in various AI systems. In AI, belief networks, being representations of joint probability distribution with an underlying directed acyclic graph structure, are paid special attention due to the fact that efficient reasoning (uncertainty propagation) methods have been developed for belief network structures. Algorithms have been therefore developed to acquire the belief network structure from data. As artifacts due to variable hiding negatively influence the performance of derived belief networks, models with latent variables have been studied and several algorithms for learning belief network structure under causal insufficiency have also been developed. Regrettably, some of them are known already to be erroneous (e.g. IC algorithm of [Pearl:Verma:91]. This paper is devoted to another algorithm, the Fast Causal Inference (FCI) Algorithm of [Spirtes:93]. It is proven by a specially constructed example that this algorithm, as it stands in [Spirtes:93], is also erroneous. Fundamental reason for failure of this algorithm is the temporary introduction of non-real links between nodes of the network with the intention of later removal. While for trivial dependency structures these non-real links may be actually removed, this may not be the case for complex ones, e.g. for the case described in this paper. A remedy of this failure is proposed.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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