Large scale astronomical surveys are going wider and deeper than ever before. However, astronomers, cosmologists and theorists continue to face the perennial issue that their data sets are often incomplete in magnitude space and must be carefully treated in order to avoid Malmquist bias, especially in the field of supernova cosmology. Historically, cosmological parameter inference in supernova cosmology was done using $χ^2$ methodology; however, recent years have seen a rise in the use of Bayesian Hierarchical Models. In this paper we develop a Bayesian Hierarchical methodology to account for magnitude limited surveys and present a specific application to cosmological parameter inference and model selection in supernova cosmology.
We present a forward-modelled velocity field reconstruction algorithm that performs the reconstruction of the mass density field using only peculiar velocity data. Our method consistently accounts for the inhomogeneous Malmquist bias using analytic integration along the line-of-sight. By testing our method on a simulation, we show that our method gives an unbiased reconstruction of the velocity field. We show that not accounting for the inhomogeneous Malmquist bias can lead to significant biases in the forward-modelled reconstructions. We applied our method to a peculiar velocity data set cons…
The absolute-magnitude distributions of seven supernova types are presented. The data used here were primarily taken from the Asiago Supernova Catalogue, but were supplemented with additional data. We accounted for both foreground and host-galaxy extinction. A bootstrap method is used to correct the samples for Malmquist bias. Separately, we generate volume-limited samples, restricted to events within 100 Mpc. We find that the superluminous events (M_B < -21) make up only about 0.1% of all supernovae in the bias-corrected sample. The subluminous events (M_B > -15) make up about 3%. The normal …
We examine the Pantheon supernovae distance data compilation in a model independent analysis to test the validity of cosmic history reconstructions beyond the concordance $Λ$CDM cosmology. Strong deviations are allowed by the data at $z\gtrsim1$ in the reconstructed Hubble parameter, $Om$ diagnostic, and dark energy equation of state. We explore three interpretations: 1) possibility of the true cosmology being far from $Λ$CDM, 2) supernovae property evolution, and 3) survey selection effects. The strong (and theoretically problematic) deviations at $z\gtrsim1$ vanish and good consistency with …
The Supernova Legacy Survey (SNLS) has produced a high-quality, homogeneous sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) out to redshifts greater than z=1. In its first four years of full operation (to June 2007), the SNLS discovered more than 3000 transient candidates, 373 of which have been confirmed spectroscopically as SNe Ia. Use of these SNe Ia in precision cosmology critically depends on an analysis of the observational biases incurred in the SNLS survey due to the incomplete sampling of the underlying SN Ia population. This paper describes our real-time supernova detection and analysis proced…
We present a sample of 485 photometrically identified Type Ia supernova candidates mined from the first three years of data of the CFHT SuperNova Legacy Survey (SNLS). The images were submitted to a deferred processing independent of the SNLS real-time detection pipeline. Light curves of all transient events were reconstructed in the g_M, r_M, i_M and z_M filters and submitted to automated sequential cuts in order to identify possible supernovae. Pure noise and long-term variable events were rejected by light curve shape criteria. Type Ia supernova identification relied on event characteristic…
Type Ia supernovae (SNae Ia), standardisable candles that allow tracing the expansion history of the Universe, are instrumental in constraining cosmological parameters, particularly dark energy. State-of-the-art likelihood-based analyses scale poorly to future large datasets, are limited to simplified probabilistic descriptions, and must explicitly sample a high-dimensional latent posterior to infer the few parameters of interest, which makes them inefficient. Marginal likelihood-free inference, on the other hand, is based on forward simulations of data, and thus can fully account for complica…
We present the cosmological analysis of 752 photometrically-classified Type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) obtained from the full Sloan Digital Sky Survey II (SDSS-II) Supernova (SN) Survey, supplemented with host-galaxy spectroscopy from the SDSS-III Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (BOSS). Our photometric-classification method is based on the SN typing technique of Sako et al. (2011), aided by host galaxy redshifts (0.05<z<0.55). SNANA simulations of our methodology estimate that we have a SN Ia typing efficiency of 70.8%, with only 3.9% contamination from core-collapse (non-Ia) SNe. We demon…
A hierarchical Bayesian method is applied to the analysis of Type-Ia supernovae (SNIa) observations to constrain the properties of the dark matter haloes of galaxies along the SNIa lines-of-sight via their gravitational lensing effect. The full joint posterior distribution of the dark matter halo parameters is explored using the nested sampling algorithm {\sc MultiNest}, which also efficiently calculates the Bayesian evidence, thereby facilitating robust model comparison. We first demonstrate the capabilities of the method by applying it to realistic simulated SNIa data, based on the real 3-ye…
We present a new Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) named Steve for performing type Ia supernova (SNIa) cosmology fits. This advances previous works by including an improved treatment of Malmquist bias, accounting for additional sources of systematic uncertainty, and increasing numerical efficiency. Given light curve fit parameters, redshifts, and host-galaxy masses, we fit Steve simultaneously for parameters describing cosmology, SNIa populations, and systematic uncertainties. Selection effects are characterised using Monte-Carlo simulations. We demonstrate its implementation by fitting realis…
The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time is forecast to collect a large sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) that could be instrumental in unveiling the nature of Dark Energy. The feat, however, requires measuring the two components of the Hubble diagram - distance modulus and redshift - with a high degree of accuracy. Distance is estimated from SNe Ia parameters extracted from light curve fits, where the average quality of light curves is primarily driven by survey parameters such as the cadence and the number of visits per band. An optimal observing strategy is thus c…
FlowSN: Neural Simulation-Based Inference under Realistic Selection Effects applied to Supernova Cosmology
University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；National Center for Supercomputing Applications（国家超级计算应用中心）；University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；University of Chicago（芝加哥大学）
Using Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) observations, we identify a pair of "sibling" Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), i.e., hosted by the same galaxy at z = 0.0541. They exploded within 200 days from each other at a separation of $0.6^{"} $ corresponding to a projected distance of only 0.6 kpc. Performing SALT2 light curve fits to the gri ZTF photometry, we show that for these equally distant "standardizable candles", there is a difference of 2 magnitudes in their rest frame B-band peaks, and the fainter SN has a significantly red SALT2 colour $c = 0.57 \pm$ 0.04, while the stretch values $x_1$ of …
We discuss the cosmological consequences of an interacting model in the dark sector in which the $Λ$ component evolves as a truncated power series of the Hubble parameter. In order to constrain the free parameters of the model we carry out a joint statistical analysis involving observational data from current type Ia supernovae, recent estimates of the cosmic microwave background shift parameter and baryon acoustic oscillations measurements. Finally, we adopt a theoretical method to derive the coupled scalar field version for this non-equilibrium decaying vacuum accelerating cosmology.
Marginal likelihoods for the cosmic expansion rates are evaluated using the recent `Constitution' data of 397 supernovas, thereby updating the results in some previous works. Even when beginning with a very strong prior probability that favors an accelerated expansion, we end up with a marginal likelihood for the deceleration parameter $q_0$ peaked around zero in the spatially flat case. This is in agreement with some other analysis of the Constitution data. It is also found that the new data significantly constrains the cosmic expansion rates, when compared to the previous analysis. Here agai…
Current analysis of astronomical data are confronted with the daunting task of modeling the awkward features of astronomical data, among which heteroscedastic (point-dependent) errors, intrinsic scatter, non-ignorable data collection (selection effects), data structure, non-uniform populations (often called Malmquist bias), non-Gaussian data, and upper/lower limits. This chapter shows, by examples, how modeling all these features using Bayesian methods. In short, one just need to formalize, using maths, the logical link between the involved quantities, how the data arise and what we already kn…
We present the discovery of a z=0.65 low-ionization broad absorption line (LoBAL) quasar in a post-starburst galaxy in data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) and spectroscopy from the Australian Dark Energy Survey (OzDES). LoBAL quasars are a minority of all BALs, and rarer still is that this object also exhibits broad FeII (an FeLoBAL) and Balmer absorption. This is the first BAL quasar that has signatures of recently truncated star formation, which we estimate ended about 40 Myr ago. The characteristic signatures of an FeLoBAL require high column densities, which could be explained by the em…
The cosmographic approach is gaining considerable interest as a model-independent technique able to describe the late expansion of the universe. Indeed, given only the observational assumption of the cosmological principle, it allows to study the today observed accelerated evolution of the Hubble flow without assuming specific cosmological models. In general, cosmography is used to reconstruct the Hubble parameter as a function of the redshift, assuming an arbitrary fiducial value for the current matter density, $Ω_m$, and analysing low redshift cosmological data. Here we propose a different s…
Thermodynamic behavior of cosmological models with fractional entropy
Facultad de Física, Universidad Veracruzana（韦拉克鲁斯大学物理学院）；Instituto de Física, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso（瓦尔帕莱索天主教大学物理研究所）；Laboratorio de investigación de Cómputo de Física, Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Exactas, Universidad de Playa Ancha（普拉亚安查大学自然与精确科学学院计算物理研究实验室）
