分布式能源采用的动力学：平衡、稳定和极限容量
On the Dynamics of Distributed Energy Adoption: Equilibrium, Stability, and Limiting Capacity
摘要：
电力公司的死亡螺旋假说代表了一种正反馈现象，即受管制的电力公司因价格上涨和需求下降而导致财务不稳定。我们建立了死亡螺旋存在的条件和分布式能源稳定采用的条件。我们特别表明，线性关税总是引起死亡螺旋时，公用事业的固定运营成本上升超过一定的阈值。对于两部分的连接和容量收费的关税，拉姆齐定价，优化短视的社会福利的收入充足性约束诱导一个稳定的均衡。然而，拉姆齐定价以高昂的连接费用抑制了可再生能源的采用。相比之下，一个小的连接费的两部分关税的结果在一个稳定的采用过程，可再生能源的采用水平较高，更大的长期总消费者盈余。市场数据用于说明各种太阳能采用情况。
英文摘要：
The death spiral hypothesis in electric utility represents a positive feedback phenomenon in which a regulated utility is driven to financial instability by rising prices and declining demand. We establish conditions for the existence of death spiral and conditions of stable adoption of distributed energy resources. We show in particular that linear tariffs always induce death spiral when the fixed operating cost of the utility rises beyond a certain threshold. For two-part tariffs with connection and volumetric charges, the Ramsey pricing that optimizes myopically social welfare subject to the revenue adequacy constraint induces a stable equilibrium. The Ramsey pricing, however, inhibits renewable adoption with a high connection charge. In contrast, a two-part tariff with a small connection charge results in a stable adoption process with a higher level of renewable adoption and greater long-term total consumer surplus. Market data are used to illustrate various solar adoption scenarios.
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