关于重复概率的置信区间
Towards replicability with confidence intervals for the exceedance probability
摘要：
包括心理学在内的几个科学领域正在经历一场复制危机。造成这个问题的原因有很多，其中之一就是p值的误用。有几个替代p值，在本文中，我们描述了一个补充，是面向复制。特别是，我们专注于置信区间的概率，参数估计将超过一个指定的值，在一个精确的复制研究。这些区间以p值和标准置信区间所不具备的方式传达了不确定性，并且可以帮助研究人员得出更合理的科学结论。在简要回顾了p值和一些替代方案的背景之后，我们描述了我们的方法，并提供了模拟和真实数据的例子。对于线性模型，我们还描述了不一致概率的置信区间如何与参数的p值和置信区间相关。
英文摘要：
Several scientific fields including psychology are undergoing a replication crisis. There are many reasons for this problem, one of which is a misuse of p-values. There are several alternatives to p-values, and in this paper we describe a complement that is geared towards replication. In particular, we focus on confidence intervals for the probability that a parameter estimate will exceed a specified value in an exact replication study. These intervals convey uncertainty in a way that p-values and standard confidence intervals do not, and can help researchers to draw sounder scientific conclusions. After briefly reviewing background on p-values and a few alternatives, we describe our approach and provide examples with simulated and real data. For linear models, we also describe how confidence intervals for the exceedance probability are related to p-values and confidence intervals for parameters.
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