We present an approximation algorithm that takes a pool of pre-trained models as input and produces from it a cascaded model with similar accuracy but lower average-case cost. Applied to state-of-the-art ImageNet classification models, this yields up to a 2x reduction in floating point multiplications, and up to a 6x reduction in average-case memory I/O. The auto-generated cascades exhibit intuitive properties, such as using lower-resolution input for easier images and requiring higher prediction confidence when using a computationally cheaper model.
Ensembling certifiably robust neural networks is a promising approach for improving the \emph{certified robust accuracy} of neural models. Black-box ensembles that assume only query-access to the constituent models (and their robustness certifiers) during prediction are particularly attractive due to their modular structure. Cascading ensembles are a popular instance of black-box ensembles that appear to improve certified robust accuracies in practice. However, we show that the robustness certifier used by a cascading ensemble is unsound. That is, when a cascading ensemble is certified as loca…
University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence (AI2)（艾伦人工智能研究所（AI2））；Northwestern University（西北大学）；The Hebrew University of Jerusalem（希伯来大学）
Knowledge graph (KG) link prediction is a fundamental task in artificial intelligence, with applications in natural language processing, information retrieval, and biomedicine. Recently, promising results have been achieved by leveraging cross-modal information in KGs, using ensembles that combine knowledge graph embeddings (KGEs) and contextual language models (LMs). However, existing ensembles are either (1) not consistently effective in terms of ranking accuracy gains or (2) impractically inefficient on larger datasets due to the combinatorial explosion problem of pairwise ranking with deep…
Interpretable Cascading Mixture-of-Experts for Urban Traffic Congestion Prediction
The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)（香港科技大学（广州））；The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）；Didichuxing Co. Ltd（滴滴出行有限公司）
Sharif University of Technology（谢里夫理工大学）；Ohio State University（俄亥俄州立大学）
With the increasing volume of data in the world, the best approach for learning from this data is to exploit an online learning algorithm. Online ensemble methods are online algorithms which take advantage of an ensemble of classifiers to predict labels of data. Prediction with expert advice is a well-studied problem in the online ensemble learning literature. The Weighted Majority algorithm and the randomized weighted majority (RWM) are the most well-known solutions to this problem, aiming to converge to the best expert. Since among some expert, the best one does not necessarily have the mini…
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）；Tencent Inc（腾讯公司）
Predicting the popularity of online content on social platforms is an important task for both researchers and practitioners. Previous methods mainly leverage demographics, temporal and structural patterns of early adopters for popularity prediction. However, most existing methods are less effective to precisely capture the cascading effect in information diffusion, in which early adopters try to activate potential users along the underlying network. In this paper, we consider the problem of network-aware popularity prediction, leveraging both early adopters and social networks for popularity p…
Many real-world applications require the prediction of long sequence time-series, such as electricity consumption planning. Long sequence time-series forecasting (LSTF) demands a high prediction capacity of the model, which is the ability to capture precise long-range dependency coupling between output and input efficiently. Recent studies have shown the potential of Transformer to increase the prediction capacity. However, there are several severe issues with Transformer that prevent it from being directly applicable to LSTF, including quadratic time complexity, high memory usage, and inheren…
Columbia University in the City of New York（纽约市哥伦比亚大学）
Algorithms with predictions is a recent framework that has been used to overcome pessimistic worst-case bounds in incomplete information settings. In the context of scheduling, very recent work has leveraged machine-learned predictions to design algorithms that achieve improved approximation ratios in settings where the processing times of the jobs are initially unknown. In this paper, we study the speed-robust scheduling problem where the speeds of the machines, instead of the processing times of the jobs, are unknown and augment this problem with predictions. Our main result is an algorithm …
The paper describes an application of Aggregating Algorithm to the problem of regression. It generalizes earlier results concerned with plain linear regression to kernel techniques and presents an on-line algorithm which performs nearly as well as any oblivious kernel predictor. The paper contains the derivation of an estimate on the performance of this algorithm. The estimate is then used to derive an application of the Complexity Approximation Principle to kernel methods.
In this paper, we provide two new stable online algorithms for the problem of prediction in reinforcement learning, \emph{i.e.}, estimating the value function of a model-free Markov reward process using the linear function approximation architecture and with memory and computation costs scaling quadratically in the size of the feature set. The algorithms employ the multi-timescale stochastic approximation variant of the very popular cross entropy (CE) optimization method which is a model based search method to find the global optimum of a real-valued function. A proof of convergence of the alg…
Explaining complex or seemingly simple machine learning models is an important practical problem. We want to explain individual predictions from a complex machine learning model by learning simple, interpretable explanations. Shapley values is a game theoretic concept that can be used for this purpose. The Shapley value framework has a series of desirable theoretical properties, and can in principle handle any predictive model. Kernel SHAP is a computationally efficient approximation to Shapley values in higher dimensions. Like several other existing methods, this approach assumes that the fea…
Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Point Zero One Technology（Point Zero One Technology（Point Zero One科技公司））
With the increasing power of computers and the rapid development of self-learning methodologies such as machine learning and artificial intelligence, the problem of constructing an automatic Financial Trading Systems (FTFs) becomes an increasingly attractive research topic. An intuitive way of developing such a trading algorithm is to use Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms, which does not require model-building. In this paper, we dive into the RL algorithms and illustrate the definitions of the reward function, actions and policy functions in details, as well as introducing algorithms that…
We present an approximation scheme for support vector machine models that use an RBF kernel. A second-order Maclaurin series approximation is used for exponentials of inner products between support vectors and test instances. The approximation is applicable to all kernel methods featuring sums of kernel evaluations and makes no assumptions regarding data normalization. The prediction speed of approximated models no longer relates to the amount of support vectors but is quadratic in terms of the number of input dimensions. If the number of input dimensions is small compared to the amount of sup…
