Parameter inference for stochastic differential equations is challenging due to the presence of a latent diffusion process. Working with an Euler-Maruyama discretisation for the diffusion, we use variational inference to jointly learn the parameters and the diffusion paths. We use a standard mean-field variational approximation of the parameter posterior, and introduce a recurrent neural network to approximate the posterior for the diffusion paths conditional on the parameters. This neural network learns how to provide Gaussian state transitions which bridge between observations in a very similar way to the conditioned diffusion process. The resulting black-box inference method can be applied to any SDE system with light tuning requirements. We illustrate the method on a Lotka-Volterra system and an epidemic model, producing accurate parameter estimates in a few hours.
We introduce overdispersed black-box variational inference, a method to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator of the gradient in black-box variational inference. Instead of taking samples from the variational distribution, we use importance sampling to take samples from an overdispersed distribution in the same exponential family as the variational approximation. Our approach is general since it can be readily applied to any exponential family distribution, which is the typical choice for the variational approximation. We run experiments on two non-conjugate probabilistic models to …
Variational inference has become a widely used method to approximate posteriors in complex latent variables models. However, deriving a variational inference algorithm generally requires significant model-specific analysis, and these efforts can hinder and deter us from quickly developing and exploring a variety of models for a problem at hand. In this paper, we present a "black box" variational inference algorithm, one that can be quickly applied to many models with little additional derivation. Our method is based on a stochastic optimization of the variational objective where the noisy grad…
Recent advances in stochastic gradient variational inference have made it possible to perform variational Bayesian inference with posterior approximations containing auxiliary random variables. This enables us to explore a new synthesis of variational inference and Monte Carlo methods where we incorporate one or more steps of MCMC into our variational approximation. By doing so we obtain a rich class of inference algorithms bridging the gap between variational methods and MCMC, and offering the best of both worlds: fast posterior approximation through the maximization of an explicit objective,…
Recent variational inference methods use stochastic gradient estimators whose variance is not well understood. Theoretical guarantees for these estimators are important to understand when these methods will or will not work. This paper gives bounds for the common "reparameterization" estimators when the target is smooth and the variational family is a location-scale distribution. These bounds are unimprovable and thus provide the best possible guarantees under the stated assumptions.
We introduce TrustVI, a fast second-order algorithm for black-box variational inference based on trust-region optimization and the reparameterization trick. At each iteration, TrustVI proposes and assesses a step based on minibatches of draws from the variational distribution. The algorithm provably converges to a stationary point. We implemented TrustVI in the Stan framework and compared it to two alternatives: Automatic Differentiation Variational Inference (ADVI) and Hessian-free Stochastic Gradient Variational Inference (HFSGVI). The former is based on stochastic first-order optimization. …
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；Preferred Networks；The Institute of Statistical Mathematics（统计数理研究所）
We formalize an equivalence between two popular methods for Bayesian inference: Stein variational gradient descent (SVGD) and black-box variational inference (BBVI). In particular, we show that BBVI corresponds precisely to SVGD when the kernel is the neural tangent kernel. Furthermore, we interpret SVGD and BBVI as kernel gradient flows; we do this by leveraging the recent perspective that views SVGD as a gradient flow in the space of probability distributions and showing that BBVI naturally motivates a Riemannian structure on that space. We observe that kernel gradient flow also describes dy…
The Black Box Variational Inference (Ranganath et al. (2014)) algorithm provides a universal method for Variational Inference, but taking advantage of special properties of the approximation family or of the target can improve the convergence speed significantly. For example, if the approximation family is a transformation family, such as a Gaussian, then switching to the reparameterization gradient (Kingma and Welling (2014)) often yields a major reduction in gradient variance. Ultimately, reducing the variance can reduce the computational cost and yield better approximations. We present a ne…
University of Massachusetts, Amherst（马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校）
Black-box variational inference tries to approximate a complex target distribution though a gradient-based optimization of the parameters of a simpler distribution. Provable convergence guarantees require structural properties of the objective. This paper shows that for location-scale family approximations, if the target is M-Lipschitz smooth, then so is the objective, if the entropy is excluded. The key proof idea is to describe gradients in a certain inner-product space, thus permitting use of Bessel's inequality. This result gives insight into how to parameterize distributions, gives bounds…
Variational inference (VI) combined with Bayesian nonlinear filtering produces state-of-the-art results for latent time-series modeling. A body of recent work has focused on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and its variants, e.g., forward filtering backward simulation (FFBSi). Although these studies have succeeded, serious problems remain in particle degeneracy and biased gradient estimators. In this paper, we propose Ensemble Kalman Variational Objective (EnKO), a hybrid method of VI and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), to infer state space models (SSMs). Our proposed method can efficiently ide…
Black box variational inference (BBVI) with reparameterization gradients triggered the exploration of divergence measures other than the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, such as alpha divergences. In this paper, we view BBVI with generalized divergences as a form of estimating the marginal likelihood via biased importance sampling. The choice of divergence determines a bias-variance trade-off between the tightness of a bound on the marginal likelihood (low bias) and the variance of its gradient estimators. Drawing on variational perturbation theory of statistical physics, we use these insight…
We introduce incremental variational inference and apply it to latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). Incremental variational inference is inspired by incremental EM and provides an alternative to stochastic variational inference. Incremental LDA can process massive document collections, does not require to set a learning rate, converges faster to a local optimum of the variational bound and enjoys the attractive property of monotonically increasing it. We study the performance of incremental LDA on large benchmark data sets. We further introduce a stochastic approximation of incremental variation…
Variational inference is a scalable technique for approximate Bayesian inference. Deriving variational inference algorithms requires tedious model-specific calculations; this makes it difficult to automate. We propose an automatic variational inference algorithm, automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI). The user only provides a Bayesian model and a dataset; nothing else. We make no conjugacy assumptions and support a broad class of models. The algorithm automatically determines an appropriate variational family and optimizes the variational objective. We implement ADVI in Stan (…
Latent variable time-series models are among the most heavily used tools from machine learning and applied statistics. These models have the advantage of learning latent structure both from noisy observations and from the temporal ordering in the data, where it is assumed that meaningful correlation structure exists across time. A few highly-structured models, such as the linear dynamical system with linear-Gaussian observations, have closed-form inference procedures (e.g. the Kalman Filter), but this case is an exception to the general rule that exact posterior inference in more complex gener…
Variational inference provides a powerful tool for approximate probabilistic in- ference on complex, structured models. Typical variational inference methods, however, require to use inference networks with computationally tractable proba- bility density functions. This largely limits the design and implementation of vari- ational inference methods. We consider wild variational inference methods that do not require tractable density functions on the inference networks, and hence can be applied in more challenging cases. As an example of application, we treat stochastic gradient Langevin dynami…
Variational inference is a powerful approach for approximate posterior inference. However, it is sensitive to initialization and can be subject to poor local optima. In this paper, we develop proximity variational inference (PVI). PVI is a new method for optimizing the variational objective that constrains subsequent iterates of the variational parameters to robustify the optimization path. Consequently, PVI is less sensitive to initialization and optimization quirks and finds better local optima. We demonstrate our method on three proximity statistics. We study PVI on a Bernoulli factor model…
Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm in the sequential data setting. Our algorithm is applicable to both finite hidden Markov models and hierarchical Dirichlet process hidden Markov models, and to any datasets generated by emission distributions in the exponential family. Our experiment results on two discrete datasets show that our inference is both more efficient and more accurate than its uncollapsed version, stochastic vari…
Discrete choice models are commonly used by applied statisticians in numerous fields, such as marketing, economics, finance, and operations research. When agents in discrete choice models are assumed to have differing preferences, exact inference is often intractable. Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques make approximate inference possible, but the computational cost is prohibitive on the large data sets now becoming routinely available. Variational methods provide a deterministic alternative for approximation of the posterior distribution. We derive variational procedures for empirical Bayes a…
We introduce a new algorithm for approximate inference that combines reparametrization, Markov chain Monte Carlo and variational methods. We construct a very flexible implicit variational distribution synthesized by an arbitrary Markov chain Monte Carlo operation and a deterministic transformation that can be optimized using the reparametrization trick. Unlike current methods for implicit variational inference, our method avoids the computation of log density ratios and therefore it is easily applicable to arbitrary continuous and differentiable models. We demonstrate the proposed algorithm fo…
Adobe Research（Adobe研究院）；Princeton University（普林斯顿大学）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）
We develop stochastic variational inference, a scalable algorithm for approximating posterior distributions. We develop this technique for a large class of probabilistic models and we demonstrate it with two probabilistic topic models, latent Dirichlet allocation and the hierarchical Dirichlet process topic model. Using stochastic variational inference, we analyze several large collections of documents: 300K articles from Nature, 1.8M articles from The New York Times, and 3.8M articles from Wikipedia. Stochastic inference can easily handle data sets of this size and outperforms traditional var…
We develop a general variational inference method that preserves dependency among the latent variables. Our method uses copulas to augment the families of distributions used in mean-field and structured approximations. Copulas model the dependency that is not captured by the original variational distribution, and thus the augmented variational family guarantees better approximations to the posterior. With stochastic optimization, inference on the augmented distribution is scalable. Furthermore, our strategy is generic: it can be applied to any inference procedure that currently uses the mean-f…
Max-Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；The University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）
Approximating a probability density in a tractable manner is a central task in Bayesian statistics. Variational Inference (VI) is a popular technique that achieves tractability by choosing a relatively simple variational family. Borrowing ideas from the classic boosting framework, recent approaches attempt to \emph{boost} VI by replacing the selection of a single density with a greedily constructed mixture of densities. In order to guarantee convergence, previous works impose stringent assumptions that require significant effort for practitioners. Specifically, they require a custom implementa…
Semi-implicit variational inference (SIVI) is introduced to expand the commonly used analytic variational distribution family, by mixing the variational parameter with a flexible distribution. This mixing distribution can assume any density function, explicit or not, as long as independent random samples can be generated via reparameterization. Not only does SIVI expand the variational family to incorporate highly flexible variational distributions, including implicit ones that have no analytic density functions, but also sandwiches the evidence lower bound (ELBO) between a lower bound and an …
The recognition network in deep latent variable models such as variational autoencoders (VAEs) relies on amortized inference for efficient posterior approximation that can scale up to large datasets. However, this technique has also been demonstrated to select suboptimal variational parameters, often resulting in considerable additional error called the amortization gap. To close the amortization gap and improve the training of the generative model, recent works have introduced an additional refinement step that applies stochastic variational inference (SVI) to improve upon the variational par…
Variational inference approximates the posterior distribution of a probabilistic model with a parameterized density by maximizing a lower bound for the model evidence. Modern solutions fit a flexible approximation with stochastic gradient descent, using Monte Carlo approximation for the gradients. This enables variational inference for arbitrary differentiable probabilistic models, and consequently makes variational inference feasible for probabilistic programming languages. In this work we develop more efficient inference algorithms for the task by considering importance sampling estimates fo…
College of Information and Computer Sciences, University of Massachusetts Amherst（马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校信息与计算机科学学院）；Department of Computer Science, Mount Holyoke College（曼荷莲学院计算机科学系）
Recent work used importance sampling ideas for better variational bounds on likelihoods. We clarify the applicability of these ideas to pure probabilistic inference, by showing the resulting Importance Weighted Variational Inference (IWVI) technique is an instance of augmented variational inference, thus identifying the looseness in previous work. Experiments confirm IWVI's practicality for probabilistic inference. As a second contribution, we investigate inference with elliptical distributions, which improves accuracy in low dimensions, and convergence in high dimensions.
Radboud University（拉德堡德大学）；University of Amsterdam（阿姆斯特丹大学）
This paper introduces Wasserstein variational inference, a new form of approximate Bayesian inference based on optimal transport theory. Wasserstein variational inference uses a new family of divergences that includes both f-divergences and the Wasserstein distance as special cases. The gradients of the Wasserstein variational loss are obtained by backpropagating through the Sinkhorn iterations. This technique results in a very stable likelihood-free training method that can be used with implicit distributions and probabilistic programs. Using the Wasserstein variational inference framework, w…
We present vir, an R package for variational inference with shrinkage priors. Our package implements variational and stochastic variational algorithms for linear and probit regression models, the use of which is a common first step in many applied analyses. We review variational inference and show how the derivation for a Gibbs sampler can be easily modified to derive a corresponding variational or stochastic variational algorithm. We provide simulations showing that, at least for a normal linear model, variational inference can lead to similar uncertainty quantification as the corresponding G…
Variational inference methods for latent variable statistical models have gained popularity because they are relatively fast, can handle large data sets, and have deterministic convergence guarantees. However, in practice it is unclear whether the fixed point identified by the variational inference algorithm is a local or a global optimum. Here, we propose a method for constructing iterative optimization algorithms for variational inference problems that are guaranteed to converge to the $ε$-global variational lower bound on the log-likelihood. We derive inference algorithms for two variationa…
Particle-based variational inference offers a flexible way of approximating complex posterior distributions with a set of particles. In this paper we introduce a new particle-based variational inference method based on the theory of semi-discrete optimal transport. Instead of minimizing the KL divergence between the posterior and the variational approximation, we minimize a semi-discrete optimal transport divergence. The solution of the resulting optimal transport problem provides both a particle approximation and a set of optimal transportation densities that map each particle to a segment of…
Robustness to outliers is a central issue in real-world machine learning applications. While replacing a model to a heavy-tailed one (e.g., from Gaussian to Student-t) is a standard approach for robustification, it can only be applied to simple models. In this paper, based on Zellner's optimization and variational formulation of Bayesian inference, we propose an outlier-robust pseudo-Bayesian variational method by replacing the Kullback-Leibler divergence used for data fitting to a robust divergence such as the beta- and gamma-divergences. An advantage of our approach is that superior but comp…
Mean-field variational methods are widely used for approximate posterior inference in many probabilistic models. In a typical application, mean-field methods approximately compute the posterior with a coordinate-ascent optimization algorithm. When the model is conditionally conjugate, the coordinate updates are easily derived and in closed form. However, many models of interest---like the correlated topic model and Bayesian logistic regression---are nonconjuate. In these models, mean-field methods cannot be directly applied and practitioners have had to develop variational algorithms on a case…
We introduce local expectation gradients which is a general purpose stochastic variational inference algorithm for constructing stochastic gradients through sampling from the variational distribution. This algorithm divides the problem of estimating the stochastic gradients over multiple variational parameters into smaller sub-tasks so that each sub-task exploits intelligently the information coming from the most relevant part of the variational distribution. This is achieved by performing an exact expectation over the single random variable that mostly correlates with the variational paramete…
Inspired by the seminal work on Stein Variational Inference and Stein Variational Policy Gradient, we derived a method to generate samples from the posterior variational parameter distribution by \textit{explicitly} minimizing the KL divergence to match the target distribution in an amortize fashion. Consequently, we applied this varational inference technique into vanilla policy gradient, TRPO and PPO with Bayesian Neural Network parameterizations for reinforcement learning problems.
Stochastic variational inference for collapsed models has recently been successfully applied to large scale topic modelling. In this paper, we propose a stochastic collapsed variational inference algorithm for hidden Markov models, in a sequential data setting. Given a collapsed hidden Markov Model, we break its long Markov chain into a set of short subchains. We propose a novel sum-product algorithm to update the posteriors of the subchains, taking into account their boundary transitions due to the sequential dependencies. Our experiments on two discrete datasets show that our collapsed algor…
Variational inference uses optimization, rather than integration, to approximate the marginal likelihood, and thereby the posterior, in a Bayesian model. Thanks to advances in computational scalability made in the last decade, variational inference is now the preferred choice for many high-dimensional models and large datasets. This tutorial introduces variational inference from the parametric perspective that dominates these recent developments, in contrast to the mean-field perspective commonly found in other introductory texts.
Two popular classes of methods for approximate inference are Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and variational inference. MCMC tends to be accurate if run for a long enough time, while variational inference tends to give better approximations at shorter time horizons. However, the amount of time needed for MCMC to exceed the performance of variational methods can be quite high, motivating more fine-grained tradeoffs. This paper derives a distribution over variational parameters, designed to minimize a bound on the divergence between the resulting marginal distribution and the target, and gives a…
This paper presents studies on a deterministic annealing algorithm based on quantum annealing for variational Bayes (QAVB) inference, which can be seen as an extension of the simulated annealing for variational Bayes (SAVB) inference. QAVB is as easy as SAVB to implement. Experiments revealed QAVB finds a better local optimum than SAVB in terms of the variational free energy in latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA).
Variational Inference makes a trade-off between the capacity of the variational family and the tractability of finding an approximate posterior distribution. Instead, Boosting Variational Inference allows practitioners to obtain increasingly good posterior approximations by spending more compute. The main obstacle to widespread adoption of Boosting Variational Inference is the amount of resources necessary to improve over a strong Variational Inference baseline. In our work, we trace this limitation back to the global curvature of the KL-divergence. We characterize how the global curvature imp…
This paper shows how the variational Bayes method provides a computational efficient technique in the context of hierarchical modelling using Dirichlet process priors, in particular without requiring conjugate prior assumption. It shows, using the so called parameter separation parameterization, a simple criterion under which the variational method works well. Based on this framework, its provides a full variational solution for the Dirichlet process. The numerical results show that the method is very computationally efficient when compared to MCMC. Finally, we propose an empirical method to e…
The choice of approximate posterior distribution is one of the core problems in variational inference. Most applications of variational inference employ simple families of posterior approximations in order to allow for efficient inference, focusing on mean-field or other simple structured approximations. This restriction has a significant impact on the quality of inferences made using variational methods. We introduce a new approach for specifying flexible, arbitrarily complex and scalable approximate posterior distributions. Our approximations are distributions constructed through a normalizi…
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）
Hybrid continuous-discrete models naturally represent many real-world applications in robotics, finance, and environmental engineering. Inference with large-scale models is challenging because relational structures deteriorate rapidly during inference with observations. The main contribution of this paper is an efficient relational variational inference algorithm that factors largescale probability models into simpler variational models, composed of mixtures of iid (Bernoulli) random variables. The algorithm takes probability relational models of largescale hybrid systems and converts them to …
Variational inference lies at the core of many state-of-the-art algorithms. To improve the approximation of the posterior beyond parametric families, it was proposed to include MCMC steps into the variational lower bound. In this work we explore this idea using steps of the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm, an efficient MCMC method. In particular, we incorporate the acceptance step of the HMC algorithm, guaranteeing asymptotic convergence to the true posterior. Additionally, we introduce some extensions to the HMC algorithm geared towards faster convergence. The theoretical advantages o…
Athens University of Economics and Business（雅典经济与商业大学）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）
We develop unbiased implicit variational inference (UIVI), a method that expands the applicability of variational inference by defining an expressive variational family. UIVI considers an implicit variational distribution obtained in a hierarchical manner using a simple reparameterizable distribution whose variational parameters are defined by arbitrarily flexible deep neural networks. Unlike previous works, UIVI directly optimizes the evidence lower bound (ELBO) rather than an approximation to the ELBO. We demonstrate UIVI on several models, including Bayesian multinomial logistic regression …
University of Montreal（蒙特利尔大学）；MILA（蒙特利尔学习算法研究所）；Element AI
Despite the advances in the representational capacity of approximate distributions for variational inference, the optimization process can still limit the density that is ultimately learned. We demonstrate the drawbacks of biasing the true posterior to be unimodal, and introduce Annealed Variational Objectives (AVO) into the training of hierarchical variational methods. Inspired by Annealed Importance Sampling, the proposed method facilitates learning by incorporating energy tempering into the optimization objective. In our experiments, we demonstrate our method's robustness to deterministic w…
We derive and present explicit algorithms to facilitate streamlined computing for variational inference for models containing higher level random effects. Existing literature, such as Lee and Wand (2016), is such that streamlined variational inference is restricted to mean field variational Bayes algorithms for two-level random effects models. Here we provide the following extensions: (1) explicit Gaussian response mean field variational Bayes algorithms for three-level models, (2) explicit algorithms for the alternative variational message passing approach in the case of two-level and three-l…
We present a general method for deriving collapsed variational inference algo- rithms for probabilistic models in the conjugate exponential family. Our method unifies many existing approaches to collapsed variational inference. Our collapsed variational inference leads to a new lower bound on the marginal likelihood. We exploit the information geometry of the bound to derive much faster optimization methods based on conjugate gradients for these models. Our approach is very general and is easily applied to any model where the mean field update equations have been derived. Empirically we show s…
We propose a novel interpretation of the collapsed variational Bayes inference with a zero-order Taylor expansion approximation, called CVB0 inference, for latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). We clarify the properties of the CVB0 inference by using the alpha-divergence. We show that the CVB0 inference is composed of two different divergence projections: alpha=1 and -1. This interpretation will help shed light on CVB0 works.
This paper introduces the variational Rényi bound (VR) that extends traditional variational inference to Rényi's alpha-divergences. This new family of variational methods unifies a number of existing approaches, and enables a smooth interpolation from the evidence lower-bound to the log (marginal) likelihood that is controlled by the value of alpha that parametrises the divergence. The reparameterization trick, Monte Carlo approximation and stochastic optimisation methods are deployed to obtain a tractable and unified framework for optimisation. We further consider negative alpha values and pr…
Microsoft Research（微软研究院）；Disney Research（迪士尼研究院）；KTH Royal Institute of Technology（KTH皇家理工学院）；University of California, Irvine（加州大学欧文分校）
Many modern unsupervised or semi-supervised machine learning algorithms rely on Bayesian probabilistic models. These models are usually intractable and thus require approximate inference. Variational inference (VI) lets us approximate a high-dimensional Bayesian posterior with a simpler variational distribution by solving an optimization problem. This approach has been successfully used in various models and large-scale applications. In this review, we give an overview of recent trends in variational inference. We first introduce standard mean field variational inference, then review recent ad…
University of California Irvine（加利福尼亚大学欧文分校）；University College London（伦敦大学学院）；Radboud University Nijmegen（拉德堡德大学）
Variational Bayesian inference and (collapsed) Gibbs sampling are the two important classes of inference algorithms for Bayesian networks. Both have their advantages and disadvantages: collapsed Gibbs sampling is unbiased but is also inefficient for large count values and requires averaging over many samples to reduce variance. On the other hand, variational Bayesian inference is efficient and accurate for large count values but suffers from bias for small counts. We propose a hybrid algorithm that combines the best of both worlds: it samples very small counts and applies variational updates t…
