考虑事件持续时间和驾驶员行为不确定性的交通应急规划
Transportation Emergency Planning Considering Uncertainty in Event Duration and Drivers' Behavior
摘要：
交通应急管理处理因紧急情况（如事故或道路被淹）而导致的交通中断周围的车辆和行人交通，旨在确保驾驶员，行人和应急人员的安全。在这项研究中，一个场景，涉及当地的A1高速公路，意大利的主要高速公路连接南北，进行了研究。研究了事件持续时间和驾驶员响应率对替代路径激活策略的影响。建立宏观和微观行程，并为不同的事件持续时间和响应率，有效的路线激活的时间表进行评估。根据结果，对于短于1.5小时的事件，不需要激活替代路线，并且事件越长，需要越多的替代路线来最小化淹没路线上的总旅行时间。此外，驾驶员使用替代路线的响应率的增加导致需要在激活宏观路线之后激活微观路线。在此基础上，考虑不同的疏散策略和居民响应时间，研究了洪水情景下城市居民的疏散问题。结果表明，最佳的出口点分配和居民的准备，以减少总疏散时间的重要性。
英文摘要：
Traffic Emergency Management deals with directing the vehicular and pedestrian traffic around traffic disruptions due to emergencies, such as accidents or flooded roadways, aiming to ensure the safety of drivers, pedestrians, and emergency responders. In this study, a scenario involving the local flooding of the A1 motorway, one of Italy's main highways connecting north to the south, is studied. The effect of event duration and drivers' response rate are investigated on the alternative route activation strategies. The macro and micro itineraries are established, and for different event durations and response rates, the timelines for effective route activation are evaluated. According to the results, for events shorter than 1.5 hours, there is no need for the activation of alternative routes, and the longer the event, the more alternative routes are needed to minimize the total travel time on the flooded route. In addition, increase in the response rate of drivers to use the alternative routes leads to the need to activate the micro itinerary after the activation of the macro itinerary. Furthermore, the evacuation of an urban region due to the flood scenario is studied considering different evacuation strategies and residents response time. The results indicate the importance of optimal exit point allocation and residents' preparedness to reduce the total evacuation time.
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