需求侧管理的动态博弈方法--考虑预测误差的储能调度
A Dynamic Game Approach for Demand-Side Management: Scheduling Energy Storage with Forecasting Errors
摘要：
智能计量基础设施允许双向通信和电力传输。基于这种有前途的技术，我们提出了一个需求侧管理（DSM）计划的住宅区的prosumers。它的核心是一个离散时间动态博弈来调度个人拥有的家庭储能。该系统模型包括先进的电池模型、本地可再生能源发电以及需求和发电的预测误差。我们推导出一个封闭形式的解决方案的最佳对策问题的球员，并构造一个迭代算法来解决这个问题。实证分析表明，指数收敛的纳什均衡。一个DSM计划与静态游戏的比较，揭示了动态游戏方法的优势。我们提供了一个广泛的分析预测误差对游戏结果的影响。一个关键的结果表明，我们的方法是强大的，即使在最坏的情况下。这为组织需求侧管理计划的公用事业公司及其参与者带来了可观的收益。
英文摘要：
Smart metering infrastructure allows for two-way communication and power transfer. Based on this promising technology, we propose a demand-side management (DSM) scheme for a residential neighbourhood of prosumers. Its core is a discrete time dynamic game to schedule individually owned home energy storage. The system model includes an advanced battery model, local generation of renewable energy, and forecasting errors for demand and generation. We derive a closed-form solution for the best-response problem of a player and construct an iterative algorithm to solve the game. Empirical analysis shows exponential convergence towards the Nash equilibrium. A comparison to a DSM scheme with a static game, reveals the advantages of the dynamic game approach. We provide an extensive analysis on the influence of the forecasting error on the outcome of the game. A key result demonstrates that our approach is robust even in the worst-case scenario. This grants considerable gains for the utility company organising the DSM scheme and its participants.
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